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Thread: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

  1. #16
    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    the offense would be far more consistant if 6 of the 8 starters, and 8 of the 11 'everyday' guys didn't have the exact same weakness...it also doesn't help that one of the guys who is an exception is horrible in every aspect of his game.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    I don't understand this either. With good team speed we should score more than our OPS projects, not less.

    Some possible culprits:

    Batting order -- The importance of batting order is usually overrated but it does have some effect. Jr.'s an out machine in the three hole, Dunn's walks are wasted batting fifth. You want Hatteburg's OB skills are great at number 2 but he's awfully slow.

    Playin' Baseball -- You want to be careful about overusing every trick in your bag (see, Boone, Bob) but sometimes you just need to thump some life into your team. Last night's game screamed for some micromanaging. Start a runner, double steal, drag bunt, something to jump start the offense when the big hits aren't coming.


    Strikeouts -- At the risk of getting a stern BP-style smackdown, it wouldn't hurt to make the other side's defense work a little more. And while I'm at it...

    Batting Average -- The Angels won with it. A high-BA line-drive, all-fields hitter could probably get this team over the Runs Scored hump. A guy like Sean Casey (gulp).

    Then again, maybe our being 5th is a statistical anomoly. In other words, bad luck.
    Great post. But it's not a statistical anomoly. The offense has deficiencies.

    Focusing on the offense, the Reds perform terribly on the road. They are 9th in the NL in runs while away. 8th in OPS. 9th in OBP. 15th in BA.

    What's interesting is that, if you focus only on road games, the Reds' offense seems to be more of a problem than pitching. The Road ERA is 4.33, fourth in the NL.

    Obviously, the Reds' home run/walks combo doesn't translate on the road. Reds are only 4th in NL in homers on the road.

    So in bigger parks, where it is more important to string together hits, the Reds are less successful. In GABP, where home runs rule, they do much better.

    Reds obviously need some better all around hitters -- or at least some guys who hit better on the road. The current formula is failing in half the games.

  4. #18
    Who Dey!! GridironGrace's Avatar
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    ummm u know what after really thinking about this and reading some responses is "around .500" really so bad?

    i mean we were close last year... if we go 82-80 thats a winning season and above .500...couldnt you settle with that??

    I mean to be this close and miss the playoffs would be very heartbreaking but in all reality a .500 season was pretty much the main goal of the majority of redszone members early in the season.

    Being in the hunt is just a plus.. and a very good plus
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  5. #19
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    Quote Originally Posted by GridironGrace View Post
    ummm u know what after really thinking about this and reading some responses is "around .500" really so bad?

    i mean we were close last year... if we go 82-80 thats a winning season and above .500...couldnt you settle with that??

    I mean to be this close and miss the playoffs would be very heartbreaking but in all reality a .500 season was pretty much the main goal of the majority of redszone members early in the season.

    Being in the hunt is just a plus.. and a very good plus
    Question is: now that the Reds are actually trying to win, how do they get better. Not complaining about this year. Just trying to analyze the needs for next.

    Add a starter or two (guys who can pitch at GABP) and a couple of high average type hitters and this could soon be a good team. That's the goal, right?

  6. #20
    Who Dey!! GridironGrace's Avatar
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Question is: now that the Reds are actually trying to win, how do they get better. Not complaining about this year. Just trying to analyze the needs for next.

    Add a starter or two (guys who can pitch at GABP) and a couple of high average type hitters and this could soon be a good team. That's the goal, right?

    Of course.. I really feel we've solved the bullpen needs for NOW.

    We need a starting SS, whether it be Phillips next year or whatever we have to fix that need.

    We either need rameriz claussen wilson ready for the long hual and EFFECTIVE next season or we need another big SP pick up. lets face it.. even with Michalak in the roto we still lack the True #5 starter in our roto, and even with Lohse you could be better there.

    I feel you have Harang, Arroyo, and hopefully milton that are solid again next year if it falls that way.. but u still need ATLEAST 2 quality starts in the roto.

    We'll see. I also think that being a contender will raise our stock in the FA races this off-season and may help to acquire a KEY GUY.

    If you wanna think future... When is the right time for bailey to come up into the roto? Also, who are we gonna lose this off-season.. alot of things to assess but right now the most important thing is the wildcard and NL Central Races...

    We still have a month to go
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  7. #21
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Great post. But it's not a statistical anomoly. The offense has deficiencies.

    Focusing on the offense, the Reds perform terribly on the road. They are 9th in the NL in runs while away. 8th in OPS. 9th in OBP. 15th in BA.

    What's interesting is that, if you focus only on road games, the Reds' offense seems to be more of a problem than pitching. The Road ERA is 4.33, fourth in the NL.

    Obviously, the Reds' home run/walks combo doesn't translate on the road. Reds are only 4th in NL in homers on the road.

    So in bigger parks, where it is more important to string together hits, the Reds are less successful. In GABP, where home runs rule, they do much better.

    Reds obviously need some better all around hitters -- or at least some guys who hit better on the road. The current formula is failing in half the games.

    Good stuff. I actually discussed this with my pop at the Giant's game. Our conjecture, after watching 2 runs scored in 3 games, was that the fences looked closer than the werer. Pacbell and Dodger Stadium don't play at all like the GAB -- swinging for the fences is not a good idea.

    We also noted that hitters parks teams lose and pitcher's parks teams win.
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  8. #22
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    I don't understand this either. With good team speed we should score more than our OPS projects, not less.

    Some possible culprits:

    Batting order -- The importance of batting order is usually overrated but it does have some effect. Jr.'s an out machine in the three hole, Dunn's walks are wasted batting fifth. You want Hatteburg's OB skills are great at number 2 but he's awfully slow.

    Playin' Baseball -- You want to be careful about overusing every trick in your bag (see, Boone, Bob) but sometimes you just need to thump some life into your team. Last night's game screamed for some micromanaging. Start a runner, double steal, drag bunt, something to jump start the offense when the big hits aren't coming.

    Strikeouts -- At the risk of getting a stern BP-style smackdown, it wouldn't hurt to make the other side's defense work a little more. And while I'm at it...

    Batting Average -- The Angels won with it. A high-BA line-drive, all-fields hitter could probably get this team over the Runs Scored hump. A guy like Sean Casey (gulp).

    Then again, maybe our being 5th is a statistical anomoly. In other words, bad luck.
    Maybe OPS isn't a mortal lock to score runs. If you do not hit with RISP, then you're not going to score many runs. Call it what you want...luck, an anomoly, etc. Runs crossing the plate count on the scoreboard, OPS doesn't.

    Jr: .217
    Dunn: .235

    There are the 2 big guns in the lineup with RISP.

  9. #23
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Maybe OPS isn't a mortal lock to score runs. If you do not hit with RISP, then you're not going to score many runs. Call it what you want...luck, an anomoly, etc. Runs crossing the plate count on the scoreboard, OPS doesn't.

    Jr: .217
    Dunn: .235

    There are the 2 big guns in the lineup with RISP.
    FWIW, Dunn leads the team in RISP RBI with 57. Probably because he slugs .593 in those situations. He's got the second most RISP at-bats. Only Ross and Encarnacion have a better ratio of RBI per at-bat with RISP.
    Last edited by BRM; 08-31-2006 at 10:28 AM.

  10. #24
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    Taking the home/road thing a bit further, the Reds are now 2 under .500 on the road and 2 over .500 at home. They pitch well on the road, but don't hit. They hit well at home, but don't pitch. Obviously, these are general statements based on overall stats. (They haven't pitched that well on this trip, for example.)

    The road record of around .500 is decent. The home record, however, needs to improve. Good teams play much better than .500 at home.

    The Reds pitchers' home ERA is 4.99, second to worst in the NL.

    Again, this indicates a need to get some starting pitchers who are made for GABP. Milton is just not a GABP pitcher. For next year, I would like to see Arroyo, Harang, two new guys, and Lohse as the starting five.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-31-2006 at 11:49 AM.

  11. #25
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    I'd be very surprised if Homer Bailey doesn't spend the greater amount of his 2007 season in Cincinnati. I think you can pencil him into that rotation as one of the five. You can't continue to put up numbers in AA and AAA (next year if he's sent there) and stay in the minors with this dearth of starting pitching at the major league level.

  12. #26
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I'd be very surprised if Homer Bailey doesn't spend the greater amount of his 2007 season in Cincinnati. I think you can pencil him into that rotation as one of the five. You can't continue to put up numbers in AA and AAA (next year if he's sent there) and stay in the minors with this dearth of starting pitching at the major league level.

    Agree completely. Hopefully Reds can find a decent stopgap fifth starter next year for a few weeks until Bailey conquers AAA.

    Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Lohse and X. If X = Milton it's a problem. Milton probably still has enough left to be a good pitcher, but Cincy is just a bad match for him. He's pitching in San Diego this weekend and I recall him pitching very well there last year, different kind of ballpark.

    Reds need to find a Derrick Lowe/Brandon Webb type of pitcher to throw groundballs at GABP. That would make a difference.

  13. #27
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

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  14. #28
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    I understand the offense has some efficiency issues but I always go back to when 60% of the tea,'s games are started by pitchers who you have no clue what your going to get from, the team should be fortunate to be .500
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  15. #29
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    Good thread. This team does not have the pitching to be a good team. Even if we rally and make it to the playoffs, its only because we were the best of many very average teams. While we were "fixing" the bullpen, we couldn't go out and get starters better than the one we had. I thought at the beginning of the year that a winning record (finally) was a good season for this team and I still think so. We didn't need great pitching, but it had to be better than this. And before the end of the season, Chris Michalak was starting for us.
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  16. #30
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    Re: Why are the Reds only a .500 team?

    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Cummings View Post
    Good thread. This team does not have the pitching to be a good team. Even if we rally and make it to the playoffs, its only because we were the best of many very average teams. While we were "fixing" the bullpen, we couldn't go out and get starters better than the one we had. I thought at the beginning of the year that a winning record (finally) was a good season for this team and I still think so. We didn't need great pitching, but it had to be better than this. And before the end of the season, Chris Michalak was starting for us.
    Problem is injury to Claussen and then EZ just dissapearing. We had no depth and it shows. Lohse might be a decent add, but not sure we can count on it. Everyone can use another starter, but our #5 is now our #3. That's bad!
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