Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 18

Thread: Honest Stats Question

  1. #1
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    7,441

    Honest Stats Question

    I used honest in the title lest anyone think this is another stats battle thread.

    What is the average probablity that an at-bat will produce the following outcomes:

    out
    1B
    2B
    3B
    HR

    I know it's a very broad question and that it will differ for each batter, but I'm currious what the average probability would be for these events to take place. i.e. generally speaking the average probability of a double being hit in any given AB is 8%, or whatever.

    Further, what is the average probability that a runner on 1B will actaully become a run? I'd be currious to know the same for a runner on 2nd and 3rd also. In other words, if a guy is on 2B what are the chances of him making it home, on average?

    Thanks in advance for the effort in research, number chrunching, etc.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 09-01-2006 at 08:13 AM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Winton Place
    Posts
    11,184

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    I found this article, but after scanning it,I don't think it's exactly getting at what you want.

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...n-probability/

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    1,651

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    I'll give you some rough numbers for the first part of your query.

    I've pulled my numbers from www.baseballreference.com using last years national league numbers. Year and league matter, but they'll be close to this years numbers. I don't know if hpb counts as an AB or not, so We may miss a couple plate appearances on stuff like that and there are always questionable official scoring decisions...enough excuses on to the numbers.

    88,120 at bats.
    8,396 walks
    23,058 hits
    4,754 doubles
    468 tripples
    2,580 homers

    88,120 at bats + 8396 walks means roughly 96,516 plate appearances.
    23,058 hits - 4,754 double - 468 tripples -2,580 homers = 15,256 singles

    8,396/88,120 = 8% of batters will walk.
    15,256/88,120 = 17% chance of a single
    4,754/88,120 = 5% chance of a double
    468/88,120 = 0.5% chance of a tripple
    2,580/88,120 = 3% chance of a homer

    My guess is the best way to illustrate the second part of your query involves a run estimation chart. I don't believe I've ever seen anyone calculate it that way. A run estimation chart doesn't exactly answer your question, but I think it's a usefull tool. Since BP published their's this last year, lets use their version for this year.
    runners No Outs One out Two outs
    000 0.54566 0.30029 0.10987
    003 1.48395 0.98037 0.36963
    020 1.15429 0.74478 0.36556
    023 1.91182 1.44861 0.5824
    100 0.9228 0.56595 0.23718
    103 1.83519 1.18815 0.47894
    120 1.56706 0.95087 0.45006
    123 2.3858 1.64545 0.81739

    First of all lets laugh at the good guys at BP for carryin their precision out to 5 decimal points. Nothing like a good chuckle. Then let's go about interpreting what that table means. That means if the bases are loaded and nobody is out, you team should score two runs or more. Likewise if there's a man on third and two outs, you're going to score a run about a third of the time.

    Hope that helps.

  5. #4
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    6,271

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    I used honest in the title lest anyone think this is another stats battle thread.

    What is the average probablity that an at-bat will produce the following outcomes:

    out
    1B
    2B
    3B
    HR

    I know it's a very broad question and that it will differ for each batter, but I'm currious what the average probability would be for these events to take place. i.e. generally speaking the average probability of a double being hit in any given AB is 8%, or whatever.

    Further, what is the average probability that a runner on 1B will actaully become a run? I'd be currious to know the same for a runner on 2nd and 3rd also. In other words, if a guy is on 2B what are the chances of him making it home, on average?

    Thanks in advance for the effort in research, number chrunching, etc.
    Use plate appearances instead of at bats. With plate appearances, the 2005 probabilities/league averages were approximately as follows per any given PA:

    Out: 67.00 percent
    1B: 15.69 percent
    2B: 4.76 percent
    3B: 0.48 percent
    HR: 2.69 percent
    BB: 8.16 percent
    HBP: 0.96 percent

    For baserunner/out situations, use a run expectancy chart and a run frequency chart.

    Tango Tiger Run Expectancy Chart: 1999-2002

    Tango Tiger Run Frequency Chart: 1999-2002

    EDIT: Looks like dfs got it before I did
    Last edited by Cyclone792; 09-01-2006 at 10:41 AM.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    1,651

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    Looks like dfs got it before I did
    well, except I screwed my numbers up.

    oops.

    8,396/96,516 = 8% of batters will walk.
    15,256/96,516 = 15% chance of a single
    4,754/96,516 = 5% chance of a double
    468/96,516 = 0.5% chance of a tripple
    2,580/96,516 = 2.5% chance of a homer

    Thanks to redsmetz for the sanity check.

  7. #6
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Pittsburgh
    Posts
    7,207

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    Use plate appearances instead of at bats. With plate appearances, the 2005 probabilities/league averages were approximately as follows per any given PA:

    Out: 67.00 percent
    1B: 15.69 percent
    2B: 4.76 percent
    3B: 0.48 percent
    HR: 2.69 percent
    BB: 8.16 percent
    HBP: 0.96 percent
    Well, there you have it. Absolute definitive proof of what I have been saying for years: that a triple is the sexiest thing a batter can do in baseball. Not the most crucial, not the most exciting, but the sexiest. I guess it's because it's the rarest.

    We can have the whole "which is sexier: stand-up or sliding triple?" debate another day. It's a good one though.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  8. #7
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Winton Place
    Posts
    11,184

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum View Post
    Well, there you have it. Absolute definitive proof of what I have been saying for years: that a triple is the sexiest thing a batter can do in baseball. Not the most crucial, not the most exciting, but the sexiest. I guess it's because it's the rarest.

    We can have the whole "which is sexier: stand-up or sliding triple?" debate another day. It's a good one though.
    Of course, the inside the park home run is probably rarer. I remember writing and suggesting that they add one more category to the game they do in the 8th inning where they give away so much money and tickets with a grand slam winning someone a car. I suggested adding one more bigger prize if the Grand Slam was an inside the parker.

  9. #8
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    7,441

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum View Post
    We can have the whole "which is sexier: stand-up or sliding triple?" debate another day. It's a good one though.

    Oh lord...not another "sliding vs over-running the base" arguments. Yeeeeccchhh. The last one of those in here reminded me of the "Airwolf vs Blue Thunder" debates when I was in 5th grade.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  10. #9
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Pittsburgh
    Posts
    7,207

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Oh lord...not another "sliding vs over-running the base" arguments. Yeeeeccchhh. The last one of those in here reminded me of the "Airwolf vs Blue Thunder" debates when I was in 5th grade.


    These things are VERY IMPORTANT. Uberimportant, even.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  11. #10
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Bristol, just around the corner from ESPN
    Posts
    8,694

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum View Post
    Well, there you have it. Absolute definitive proof of what I have been saying for years: that a triple is the sexiest thing a batter can do in baseball. Not the most crucial, not the most exciting, but the sexiest. I guess it's because it's the rarest.

    We can have the whole "which is sexier: stand-up or sliding triple?" debate another day. It's a good one though.
    Sexier, sliding triple.

    If you got there standing up, Wendell Kim would be wavin ya home.

    Mark Berry, on the other hand, would not. He probably would have kept you at 2B.

  12. #11
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Pittsburgh
    Posts
    7,207

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Sexier, sliding triple.

    If you got there standing up, Wendell Kim would be wavin ya home.

    Mark Berry, on the other hand, would not. He probably would have kept you at 2B.
    See, I disagree (and I've always been in the minority in this argument). If there's a chance you can make it home, or the third-base coach is waving you home, by all means, run like the wind, young grasshopper. If there's any chance you're not going to make it to third, slide your guts out. But -- BUT -- if you know you're going to stay put at third and there's ANY possibility that you can cruise in there on your feet like it's the easiest thing in the world...oh my god. DO IT. Usually the guys who can pull off stand-up triples are the fleet-footed players anyway, so if they're not going home, you know they really can't get there safely. So they just breeze on in there, maybe take a smoke break, like it was no effort at all, when those figures above prove that a triple is SO difficult. If they can't get home, then it's like -- like a double that was never meant to go beyond that, but not only did he do that, he did it with ease. There is no word for that but sexy. It's not gritty, it's not groovy, just sexy.

    Ryan Freel had a textbook stand-up triple in Houston in early June. Ryan Freel is exactly the kind of player who can pull off a sexy stand-up triple: he'd slide if he needed to, he'd go home if he could. But circumstances dictate that he just run into third and stays there. If I could set up house at the hot corner, I would.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  13. #12
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    7,441

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    Many thanks for your efforts!

    GAC will buy you a case of beer to thank you for your time. Just talk to him to make the arrangements.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  14. #13
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Albuquerque
    Posts
    52

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    The last one of those in here reminded me of the "Airwolf vs Blue Thunder" debates when I was in 5th grade.
    Dude, that is Airwolf all the way. With Jan Michael Vincent and Ernie Borgnine PLUS the theme music? No match.

    I always knew that Jan Ullrich reminded me of somebody and now I know that it was Stringfellow Hawke. thanks!

  15. #14
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    7,441

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    Quote Originally Posted by danwl View Post
    Dude, that is Airwolf all the way. With Jan Michael Vincent and Ernie Borgnine PLUS the theme music? No match.

    With you 100% partner!

    Blue Thunder was ok but it had nothing on Airwolf.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  16. #15
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    10,808

    Re: Honest Stats Question

    I remember the time Eric Davis pulled off a very stylish stand-up triple in the Astrodome. He drove the ball to deep left-center. This ball had trouble written all over it and the Astro defense reacted accordingly. Eric flew around first and headed for second. It must have been at this moment that the seed of deception was planted in his brain. And a clever ruse it was indeed. For a stride or two he eased up as if he intended to glide safely into second. The Astro left fielder mistook this as a sign of surrender and paid dearly. He pivoted and floated a throw towards third. Eric kicked it into a gear few mortals possess and eased into third standing up. It silenced the crowd.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25