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Thread: Stay or Go

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  1. #1
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Stay or Go

    Since many think the season is over and others like me are bored waiting for the game on a Holiday. I thought I would try to get some opinions on next year's team. I have categorized the players based on how I see it. Obviously, the guys in the Back for Sure and Others I keep categories are "touchable" in the right deal (but can't really predict deals). The Trade Bait guys are guys who should be shopped or used as sweetener in deals involving others. Just trying to spur some discussion.

    Back For Sure (14)
    Adam Dunn, Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Harang, Brandon Phillips (at SS), Ryan Freel (as a Roving 80% of the time player), Bronson Arroyo, Scott Hatteberg (Just signed), Eric Milton (Stuck with him), Ken Griffey Jr (Stuck with him but in RF ), Javier Valentin (Just signed), Bill Bray (Trade Justification), Gary Majewski (Trade Justification), Rheal Cormier (probably Stuck), Todd Coffey

    Others I'd Keep (5)
    Rich Aurilia (at a reasonable price as a roving 80% of the time player), Kyle Lohse (at 80% of current pay), David Weathers (on a deal same as this year), Brendon Harris, Brian Shackelford (cheap loogy)

    Trade Bait
    David Ross (sell High), Jason Larue (Payflex), Matt Belisle, Jason Standridge, Elizardo Ramirez, Chris Denorfia (blasphemy I know), William Bergolla

    Goodbye
    Kent Mercker, Juan Castro, Royce Clayton, Todd Hollandsworth, Scott Schoenweiss ( I like him but we are stuck with lots of lefties and can use the money elsewhere), Ryan Franklin, Paul Wilson, Chris Michalek, Joe Mays, Eddie Guardado

    Injury Comebacks to Gamble With
    Grant Balfour, Brandon Claussen

    Contributers from the Minors
    Rey Olmedo (In Castro's role), Homer Bailey (at mid-season), Joey Votto (at Mid-season), Probably one or more of several relievers that I don't know enough about (Shafer, Coutlangus, Medlock, etc).

    I see a need at Starting Pitcher, Closer, CF (who has power, range and plays good defense) and maybe catcher but probably either Larue or Ross will be back. Although both Milton and Griffey are on bad contracts, I wouldn't just give them away for payflex (I would Larue). Even with the flaws they have, it would cost a lot to replace Griffey and even Milton.

    Hatteberg and Aurilia are keepers while in contention and if they are playing well. Otherwise they move to the bench or could be traded with their roles going to Votto and Harris.

    With the money going out and the new TV deal, there should be some money available to add some impact players. CF and Closer are probably more realistic than a starter who is an improvement and who will be worth the money.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-04-2006 at 11:39 AM.

  2. #2
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    Re: Stay or Go

    That's some awful trade bait (no offense).

    I'd try to make the roster look as little like the current one as possible. I'd really think about cashing in Harang for younger, higher-ceiling arms (two, preferably). I'd trade Dunn for the same return. Then I'd bring up Votto and sign a couple FA bats.

    I'd keep Arroyo because he's steady and cheap, and every team needs a guy who's a shoe-in to throw 200 innings.

    Oh, and I'd eat Milton's contract and cut him.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 09-04-2006 at 12:05 PM.

  3. #3
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'd really think about cashing in Harang for younger, higher-ceiling arms (two, preferably). I'd trade Dunn for the same return. Then I'd bring up Votto and sign a couple FA bats.
    Whoa.

    So you'd trade one of our only reliable starters for prospects (thus meaning we go back into "we'll be competitive in 5 years mode)"?

    And then you'd trade away major portion of our offensive production again for prospects?

    So you want to fire Kriv now becuase he hasn't produced (in your opinion), but you want the Reds to take a course of action that means that they likely woln't produce for a while.

    I'm having a hard time following you here FCB.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 09-04-2006 at 12:14 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  4. #4
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Whoa.

    So you'd trade one of our only reliable starter for prospects (thus meaning we go back into "we'll be competitive in 5 years mode)"?

    And then you'd trade away major portion of our offensive production again for prospects?

    So you want to fire Kriv now becuase he hasn't produced (in your opinion), but you want the Reds to take a course of action that means that they likely woln't produce for a while.

    I'm having a hard time following you here FCB.
    The Marlins are outproducing the Reds with kids and a rookie manager. I'm not concerned about a timeline as long as the arms coming back to the Reds are a) close to the majors and b) higher ceiling than Harang or Arroyo or anything else currently in the Reds system (which won't be difficult to trump).

    And maybe in the next couple of years one or two of the system's arms can bolster the bullpen. So, no, I don't think I'm "setting the team back" in my formulation; if anything, I think I'm "speeding them up"; instead of playing the wait and see game with the current Reds "prospects" and the MLB arms we have. This ballclub needs an infusion of starters worse than any club in MLB--even after all of Krivsky's "tinkering." If you can get a starter and reliever for Harang, you do it.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 09-04-2006 at 12:19 PM.

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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The Marlins are outproducing the Reds with kids and a rookie manager.
    There are more teams outproducing the Reds with vets and vet managers. The Marlins example proves it can be done but it is not being done by anyone else.

    And lets face it, if this was MarlinsZone, you and a lot of other folks would be saying we are only in the thing because the rest of the NL sucks. You'd tell us that if it were a normal year, our kids and stupid rookie manager would of been out of it long ago.

  6. #6
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by MaineRed View Post
    There are more teams outproducing the Reds with vets and vet managers. The Marlins example proves it can be done but it is not being done by anyone else.

    And lets face it, if this was MarlinsZone, you and a lot of other folks would be saying we are only in the thing because the rest of the NL sucks. You'd tell us that if it were a normal year, our kids and stupid rookie manager would of been out of it long ago.
    Well, in the AL two very young teams (Tigers, Twins) are also seeing tremendous success.

  7. #7
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    Re: Stay or Go

    The Marlins would trade away everyone not bolted down that would fetch a top prospect(s). That would mean trading Arroyo and Freel along with Harang and Dunn. Hatteburg and Ross would also be goners if a decent offer were to be found. Problem is that the Marlin-model is not condusive to keeping fans - no matter how good the file-sale return is.

    Besides I don't think the Reds have enough to trade to make it work. Don't be fooled. The Marlins got extreemly lucky (or maybe they are just that good), to hit on such a high percentage of their prospects.

  8. #8
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by puca View Post
    Besides I don't think the Reds have enough to trade to make it work. Don't be fooled. The Marlins got extreemly lucky (or maybe they are just that good), to hit on such a high percentage of their prospects.
    You've been a Reds' fan too long if you think it's difficult or impossible to get a Marlins-esque return on players--or that they're lucky for having torn down and rebuilt twice already and currently sit in the middle of rebuilding and contention # 3.

    I don't think the Reds have to trade everything, necessarily; like I said, no reason at all to trade Arroyo given his contract status. But Harang is another matter, and so is Dunn, both of whom should ( I say should, but with Wayne you never know) bring back monster returns.

  9. #9
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    That's some awful trade bait (no offense).
    I agree the trade bait is not very good. Obviously the whole team is trade bait in the right deal. Probably should have called it, guys I'd love to get something for instead of just getting rid of them.

  10. #10
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Stay or Go

    I'm not concerned about a timeline as long as the arms coming back to the Reds are a) close to the majors and b) higher ceiling than Harang or Arroyo or anything else currently in the Reds system (which won't be difficult to trump).
    Ok, I'll continue to play along.

    Which team out there is likely to (a) have two young, promising, on the verge of being almost-MLB ready arms and (2) be willing to give them up and (III) be willing to trade them for Harrang?

    Without a trading partner that meets these requirements then your plan doesn't go very far.

    It's definatley a radical plan. I can't imagine the freakout that would likely occur if Harrang was traded for two prospects, no matter how promissing they were.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  11. #11
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Ok, I'll continue to play along.

    Which team out there is likely to (a) have two young, promising, on the verge of being almost-MLB ready arms and (2) be willing to give them up and (III) be willing to trade them for Harrang?

    Without a trading partner that meets these requirements then your plan doesn't go very far.

    It's definatley a radical plan. I can't imagine the freakout that would likely occur if Harrang was traded for two prospects, no matter how promissing they were.
    I don't know, find the teams that fancy themselves a contender next year, and see what each of those clubs has in its minor league system and go from there.

  12. #12
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Which team out there is likely to (a) have two young, promising, on the verge of being almost-MLB ready arms and (2) be willing to give them up and (III) be willing to trade them for Harrang?
    Sounds like quintessential trade deadline bait to me. I would think it's much less likely to happen in the offseason. I also tend to think that such a trade is a lot less likely to happen now after the Washington trade, because a) Krivsky would take an enormous amount of heat for something that would be perceived (note that I said perceived) as a similar deal, and b) that trade, said to me, at least, that Krivsky wants to hang onto Dunn (don't forget that one of the first things he did was give him a contract extension as well), and I think Harang is even less likely to go than Dunn.

    Apart from that, though, if Krivsky hangs around for awhile I would not be surprised to see him make a fair share of deals like this. I don't think he's afraid of prospects and I don't think he will cling too dearly to any player who's making tons of money if he can be even nearly replaced at a lower cost. This is taking into consideration both the ballclub he helped manage before and the financial constraints of the one he's managing now. I think this is a good thing in theory...I just hope he finds good enough prospects to justify it.

    edit: Wow, I said "less likely" three times in that first paragraph. Freudian...maybe my optimism is waning.
    Last edited by vaticanplum; 09-07-2006 at 08:23 PM.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  13. #13
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    Re: Stay or Go

    I can't see trading either Arroyo or Harrang. They are two of the best the Reds have had in ages. I think the goal should be to add to them, not use them to build our 2009 staff. Find another guy that falls in line right behind them and then pray Bailey is all he is hpyed up to be and you've got a pretty good staff. Then your looking at a guy like Lohse, Milton or whomever as your fifth starter instead of using those names to fill out the top of your rotation.

    Votto will depend on Richie Rich and Hatteberg. If they play anywhere near the way they have this year, bringing Votto up before September will be tough, unless you make a trade. That of course might be a good option, especially if the two vets continue their good play while Votto is Adam Dunning the door down. That would be ideal.

    I'm also open to trading Ross. Love what the guy has brought to the team with his stick but I do not like his defense. I think we should go with Larue next year. You know he is going to be looking for redemption. I feel bad for the guy. The Reds are finally contending and he just can't get out of his funk. Maybe it is wishful thinking to believe he isn't toast but the same could be said for believing Ross will hit another 20ish dingers. Larue and Valentin were the most potent catcher combo in the NL last year. I don't give up on Jason. Especially when he is the only defensive catcher the Reds have.

    It will be interesting to see what the Reds do at SS. That is the biggie for me. Maybe the Reds find a CF, move Junior to right, Freel to second and BP to SS. Rich could back up Freel and Edwin and get even more time at second when Freel was giving one of the OFers a day off.

    So yeah, as far as the line-up goes, a CF might be all the Reds need.

  14. #14
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by MaineRed View Post
    It will be interesting to see what the Reds do at SS. That is the biggie for me. Maybe the Reds find a CF, move Junior to right, Freel to second and BP to SS. Rich could back up Freel and Edwin and get even more time at second when Freel was giving one of the OFers a day off.
    This is exactly what I was thinking when calling Freel and Aurilia 80% of thetime roving players. Aurilia will play 1b against lefties and Griffey needs to sit one day per week with Freel in the OF. As you say, Aurilia could get some time backing up at 3B and SS. He could also play 2b on the rare days that Dunn sits with Freel in LF. Just need a CF.

    If Aurilia gets too expensive, I wonder if Harris could play that role? Probably not backing up at SS, but could everything else I think. I hope he hits enough.

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    Re: Stay or Go

    The Tigers are young?

    Their ace is 41. Their closer is 37. Most of the position players are 29 or older. Their two catchers are 32 and 33. They do have some nice young pitchers but they are harldy the Marlins. This is a vet based team:

    Kenny Rodgers, Todd Jones, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Dmitri Young, Sean Casey, Pudge, Placido Palanco. Even guys like Inge, Thames andn Monroe are 29.

    The Twins are closer to the Marlins but it also helps when you have homegrown kids like Mauer and Liriano on top of what might be the best pitcher in baseball. The Reds can't trade Larue and bring up Joe Mauer and we can't dump Eric Milton and call up Francisco Liriano. The Twins are young but they still count on Luis Castillo, Torri Hunter, Brad Radke and Joe Nathan. At the start of the year they were counting on Rondell White.

    If the Reds want to go with kids like the Marlins, Twins and Tigers, I think they should build up the farm system to match those teams first.


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