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Thread: Stay or Go

  1. #16
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    Re: Stay or Go

    The Tigers are young?

    Their ace is 41. Their closer is 37. Most of the position players are 29 or older. Their two catchers are 32 and 33. They do have some nice young pitchers but they are harldy the Marlins. This is a vet based team:

    Kenny Rodgers, Todd Jones, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Dmitri Young, Sean Casey, Pudge, Placido Palanco. Even guys like Inge, Thames andn Monroe are 29.

    The Twins are closer to the Marlins but it also helps when you have homegrown kids like Mauer and Liriano on top of what might be the best pitcher in baseball. The Reds can't trade Larue and bring up Joe Mauer and we can't dump Eric Milton and call up Francisco Liriano. The Twins are young but they still count on Luis Castillo, Torri Hunter, Brad Radke and Joe Nathan. At the start of the year they were counting on Rondell White.

    If the Reds want to go with kids like the Marlins, Twins and Tigers, I think they should build up the farm system to match those teams first.

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  3. #17
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Stay or Go

    I can't believe that no one has thrown out the idea of Freel playing in center everyday? I know that CF is usually a power position, but I think that if Freel plays RF everyday this year he wins a golf glove. I mean the guy gets to EVERYTHING. The same can obviously not be said for griffey. Move Griff to right (which won't sit well with him because he's arrogant and thinks he can still play center) and put that speedy little Farney in center and watch him compete with Andrew Jones to win a gold glove now that Edmonds is going down the tube.

  4. #18
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Stay or Go

    For some of these guys being called up this weekend, it's going to be their last look.

    I think the offseason is going to be a busy one. There are a lot of spare parts scattered between Cincinnati, Louisville and Chattanooga, parts that Krivsky and Castellini did not acquire. I look for a lot of them to be swapped for spare parts of other teams, maybe guys that Krivsky is more familiar with. I'll say this much for Kriv, the best guys that he has brought in have been the guys he was the most familiar with, the ex-Twins. He's had a season now to evaluate his own talent and see what he actually has, and if he likes it or not.

    I think Castellini is a man of his word. He'll do what he has to do in order to win, sooner than later. If not this year (looking increasingly doubtful), then next year.

    I try to always remember that he got control of this team just before spring training, and hired Kriv soon after. They have tried to shake this team up and change it's complexion as much as possible during the season, which is very hard to do if you are also trying to stay in contention. It would have been much easier to change this team if they'd have started the season out like the Royals did, for instance. Plus, needs ALWAYS cost more, in season. That's been a huge point of contention on this board since mid-July!

    I look for a lot of dealing in the offseason. I would not be surprised at all to see anyone dealt off of this team- including Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, Phillips and Encarnacion. Those 5 have to be the most desireable, and would bring back the most in return.

    If I were Kriv, I'd make anyone available- including Votto, Bruce and, yes, even the legendary Homer Bailey. I'd rather see Homer in a Reds uniform winning 20 games, but boy, if we had a nickel for every hot shot AA pitcher that flamed out prior making it to the majors...

    Bailey just might be worth more right now than he ever will be.

    I'm not saying trade him, not at all. I'm saying make him (and everyone else) available and see what you can get back in return.

  5. #19
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    Re: Stay or Go

    The only definite keepers for the Reds next year are, in my view:

    Harang
    Arroyo
    Encarnacion
    Phillips.


    That's it. In particular, I don't believe the Reds can afford to just sit with Dunn, Griffey and Milton given their high salaries and (yes, I'll say it) production levels. I'm not saying they're goners, just don't be shocked if any of them go. Also, Freel is not a lock. Reds could be offered a lot for Freel.

    This is a new GM and the "givens" may not be given anymore. The core may change.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-04-2006 at 02:00 PM.

  6. #20
    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Stay or Go

    I hope they re-sign Rich and then try to trade him and Hatte for some pitching, even if it's prospects. I can't see Hatte producing like he has this year, and Rich might have a decent season next year, but IMHO the value of both those guys is as high as it's ever going to be. I might even throw David Ross in there too, but I'd be slightly more reluctant considering he's only 28 and maybe he just took a little longer to figure it out.

  7. #21
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Well, in the AL two very young teams (Tigers, Twins) are also seeing tremendous success.
    Detroits average age is 29, not very young.... 19 in mlb

  8. #22
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by MaineRed View Post
    The Twins are closer to the Marlins but it also helps when you have homegrown kids like Mauer and Liriano on top of what might be the best pitcher in baseball. The Reds can't trade Larue and bring up Joe Mauer and we can't dump Eric Milton and call up Francisco Liriano. The Twins are young but they still count on Luis Castillo, Torri Hunter, Brad Radke and Joe Nathan. At the start of the year they were counting on Rondell White.

    If the Reds want to go with kids like the Marlins, Twins and Tigers, I think they should build up the farm system to match those teams first.
    The Twins got Liriano as a throw in from the Giants in the Nathan deal. Those are the deals that Krivsky needs to be finding for the Reds to get better.

  9. #23
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    You've been a Reds' fan too long if you think it's difficult or impossible to get a Marlins-esque return on players--or that they're lucky for having torn down and rebuilt twice already and currently sit in the middle of rebuilding and contention # 3.

    I don't think the Reds have to trade everything, necessarily; like I said, no reason at all to trade Arroyo given his contract status. But Harang is another matter, and so is Dunn, both of whom should ( I say should, but with Wayne you never know) bring back monster returns.
    When the Marlins tear down the completely tear down. They don't hit at 100% success on all their trades (Nate Bump/Jason Grilli and Vald Nunez come to mind). They rebuild through shear volume. Sometimes they hit, sometimes they miss. I'm not saying the Reds can't get 'Marlin-esque' return for Harang, but sometimes that return is Nate Bump and Jason Grilli.

    I would argue that a bigger key to the Marlins success is that they actually develop players. 2/5ths of their staff is home grown (Johnson and Olsen), and Willis was grown from a 'A' prospect. They have out drafted and developed the Reds. That is the area where the Reds should be looking to model themselves after the Marlins.

  10. #24
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Back For Sure (14)
    Adam Dunn, Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Harang, Brandon Phillips (at SS), Ryan Freel (as a Roving 80% of the time player), Bronson Arroyo, Scott Hatteberg (Just signed), Eric Milton (Stuck with him), Ken Griffey Jr (Stuck with him but in RF ), Javier Valentin (Just signed), Bill Bray (Trade Justification), Gary Majewski (Trade Justification), Rheal Cormier (probably Stuck), Todd Coffey
    I'm not so sure Milton will be around next year as well as Cormier. We'll see. And Freel can and will be trade bait. See below.

    Others I'd Keep (5)
    Rich Aurilia (at a reasonable price as a roving 80% of the time player), Kyle Lohse (at 80% of current pay), David Weathers (on a deal same as this year), Brendon Harris, Brian Shackelford (cheap loogy)
    Rich will go with the highest bidder after the season he's had and we won't go the price. He's gone. The others are only going to be around if there is nothing better out there. In fact, I don't expect to see any of them in a Reds uniform next year.

    Trade Bait
    David Ross (sell High), Jason Larue (Payflex), Matt Belisle, Jason Standridge, Elizardo Ramirez, Chris Denorfia (blasphemy I know), William Bergolla
    If we deal Ross, we have no catcher. I doubt that we'll do that. Larue, Belisle, Standridge and Denorfia should be dealt and I'm sure Krivsky will try, but what is their real worth? Not much, I'd say. Add Freel to this list. He could probably fetch a couple of good prospects and my guess that the FO feels the same way considering his non-production late in the season.

    Goodbye
    Kent Mercker, Juan Castro, Royce Clayton, Todd Hollandsworth, Scott Schoenweiss ( I like him but we are stuck with lots of lefties and can use the money elsewhere), Ryan Franklin, Paul Wilson, Chris Michalek, Joe Mays, Eddie Guardado
    I agree with the exception of Castro. Krivsky and most of the Reds organization loves him. He'll be back. As for the others, I do not expect the Reds to try to sign any of them except Guardado.

    Injury Comebacks to Gamble With
    Grant Balfour, Brandon Claussen
    Only Claussen. And he may even fail. After two arm surgeries and his seming ability to make more pitches than a batting practice appliance, I don't expect much from him ever again. In fact, both of them may be selling cars this time next year. We may never see these two again, somewhat like Paul Wilson, RCast's "savior" from earlier in the year.

    Contributers from the Minors
    Rey Olmedo (In Castro's role), Homer Bailey (at mid-season), Joey Votto (at Mid-season), Probably one or more of several relievers that I don't know enough about (Shafer, Coutlangus, Medlock, etc).
    Olmedo will never spend a full season on the roster. That's Castro's job. Bailey and Votto won't see the roster next year until this time of year. They seem to be moving these kids along slow. As for the relievers, it will depend on how they do in spring training.

    I see a need at Starting Pitcher, Closer, CF (who has power, range and plays good defense) and maybe catcher but probably either Larue or Ross will be back. Although both Milton and Griffey are on bad contracts, I wouldn't just give them away for payflex (I would Larue). Even with the flaws they have, it would cost a lot to replace Griffey and even Milton.
    You missed shortstop and/or second base. If Phillips moves to short (and I really do not expect that), we'll need a dependable second baseman and visa-versa. And if you get that CF, you need to move Freel somewhere else (maybe second?). I disagree that Junior's contract was bad. Look at what they are paying lesser (and I mean this) outfielders these days. Junior's contract is low compared to them. I'd DFA Milton and eat his salary.

    Hatteberg and Aurilia are keepers while in contention and if they are playing well. Otherwise they move to the bench or could be traded with their roles going to Votto and Harris.

    With the money going out and the new TV deal, there should be some money available to add some impact players. CF and Closer are probably more realistic than a starter who is an improvement and who will be worth the money.
    Watch Hatt go back to career norms, meaning a new first baseman is needed. Not knocking Scott, but you just can't depend on him hitting .300 next year.

    Good post and thought provoking.
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  11. #25
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I can't believe that no one has thrown out the idea of Freel playing in center everyday? I know that CF is usually a power position, but I think that if Freel plays RF everyday this year he wins a golf glove. I mean the guy gets to EVERYTHING. The same can obviously not be said for griffey. Move Griff to right (which won't sit well with him because he's arrogant and thinks he can still play center) and put that speedy little Farney in center and watch him compete with Andrew Jones to win a gold glove now that Edmonds is going down the tube.
    This wouldn't be the worst thing, but I think if this were going to happen it already would have. They need to add a player with Pop who can play defense and I think they are more likely to get that in CF than at 2B or SS. Moving Freel and signing a CF seems more doable. I also like Freel in a roving role with some time off each week. Penciling him in as an everyday starter at a certain position seems to eventually get you to the type of stats he has had this August. At 2B you have Harris or Aurilia also getting time and it leaves Freel available to spell Griffey once a week or so.

  12. #26
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    Re: Stay or Go

    If the Reds rebuild from bottom up. Dunn,Harang and Arroyo all must go as their ages become restrictive unlike say if the Limiteds sold in 03-04. All the older expensive players would be gone as well.

  13. #27
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by puca View Post
    When the Marlins tear down the completely tear down. They don't hit at 100% success on all their trades (Nate Bump/Jason Grilli and Vald Nunez come to mind). They rebuild through shear volume. Sometimes they hit, sometimes they miss. I'm not saying the Reds can't get 'Marlin-esque' return for Harang, but sometimes that return is Nate Bump and Jason Grilli.

    I would argue that a bigger key to the Marlins success is that they actually develop players. 2/5ths of their staff is home grown (Johnson and Olsen), and Willis was grown from a 'A' prospect. They have out drafted and developed the Reds. That is the area where the Reds should be looking to model themselves after the Marlins.
    Building a farm is the given.

    What the team does while it grows up is largely what's going to keep the fans around. So they should get crackin' and not wait on Godot to arrive.

  14. #28
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Kyle Lohse (at 80% of current pay),
    It would be nice to get Lohse to accept a paycut, but I don't think we'll be able to push that through. He was healthy all year. He'll take us to arb if we try to cut his salary and probably win. Even though Lohse has nearly a 6 ERA for the year, very seldom do you get players who aren't injured to agree to a pay cut. In fact, I can't think of any right now. (although that doesn't mean it never happened).

    The Reds have a tough decision on Lohse. He made about 4 million this year. I'm guessing it takes about 4.5 million to get him to come back. That might be cheaper than a comparable FA, but that's a pretty big gamble. Hopefully by the end of the season, we'll have a better read on what to expect out of the guy.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #29
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by puca View Post
    I would argue that a bigger key to the Marlins success is that they actually develop players. 2/5ths of their staff is home grown (Johnson and Olsen), and Willis was grown from a 'A' prospect. They have out drafted and developed the Reds. That is the area where the Reds should be looking to model themselves after the Marlins.
    Another advantage that the Marlins had during their teardowns, is that they had a lot of players that were above average to trade that contenders wanted and would pay a decent price for. Looking at the Reds' roster, I see Dunn, Arroyo, EdE, and Harang as the only "premium" guys. It seems as though the Marlins had about 7-8 premium guys to trade.

    I think the Reds waited too long to trade Freel. Other teams are going to look at his disappearing act in August as well. Unless he plays well as a full timer next year, I think he's pretty much cemented his repuation as a part timer.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  16. #30
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    Re: Stay or Go

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    It would be nice to get Lohse to accept a paycut, but I don't think we'll be able to push that through. He was healthy all year. He'll take us to arb if we try to cut his salary and probably win. Even though Lohse has nearly a 6 ERA for the year, very seldom do you get players who aren't injured to agree to a pay cut. In fact, I can't think of any right now. (although that doesn't mean it never happened).

    The Reds have a tough decision on Lohse. He made about 4 million this year. I'm guessing it takes about 4.5 million to get him to come back. That might be cheaper than a comparable FA, but that's a pretty big gamble. Hopefully by the end of the season, we'll have a better read on what to expect out of the guy.
    If the Reds sign Lohse for 4.5 million they will have flushed 4.5 million right down the toilet.

    The guy is fool's gold.


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