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Thread: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

  1. #1
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    Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    I've said all along, that I've never "felt it" this year. At no point did this team ever feel like anything but a .500 at best in a bad league.

    It's been more fun than the previous few years, but IMO, this has been as unexciting as a "pennant race" could possibly be. I felt no pain, anger, or even frustration when we lost today-- or even when we went 2-8 out West for that matter-- and that's coming from a guy who's been labeled around here as needing serious help for his sports addiction

    We have the 17th best record in baseball-- and in another week, we could easily fall into the 20's. Hard to get excited about a team in that slot.

    I defended Wayne all year, and I am still semi-excited to see what he does in the off-season. I am pleased with the effort of the FO. But I must admit, I'm looking pretty stupid right now defending the Kearns-Lopez trade. Not because I love either of those guys-- who I still maintain were/are VASTLY overrated by many on the board. But whenever you make a variety of moves and your team actually GETS WORSE, then it's hard to argue those were the right moves.

    I guess the biggest concern I have is that our stance in the "race" this year will be a mirage for which the FO hides behind. This organization is still in need of MAJOR change.

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    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    Reality is a strange mistress. We acknowledge her when she is not flirting with us; yet we decry her when her feminine wiles claim us as victim.
    Founder and Ruling Elite of the Derrick Robinson Fan Club. Limited amount of memberships available.

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    Who Dey!! GridironGrace's Avatar
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    Just love when we're sitting pretty we dont see these posts.. then we go on a slide and BANG........they hit the fan like its going outta style

    Still 4 weeks left of baseball.. ALOT can happen in 4 weeks.
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  5. #4
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    If you're a team that does nothing to help your run value, but instead makes moves that are more likely to hurt your run value, then the chances are far too great for pythag to step in and say, "Wait a minute, dude, not so fast."

    A few weeks ago, I pointed out that there has only been five teams in baseball history who have ever been outscored on the season yet still made the playoffs. Those five teams represent 1.55 percent of all playoff teams in history. Those are terrible odds to try and take.

    On June 30th, we were 44-36 and tied for first place with the Cardinals, yet we had scored 403 runs while allowing 401 runs. We were essentially a .500 team playing vastly above our heads, and we had been playing above our heads so much that we found ourselves in first place with people walking around town and prowling RedsZone saying, "I believe!"

    Well, that's all fine to believe, but if you're going to believe, then you need something realistic to believe in. Our run differential suggested we were going to soon get worse, not better, not even stay the same, but get worse. On the heels of an early July swoon, our general manager started making deal after deal after deal with the hopes that it would improve the club.

    But similarly to believing in the team, if you're making deals with hopes of improving the club, the key question becomes ... Well, have you really helped the club? Let's find out.

    It's now September 4th, and we've scored 670 runs while allowing 698 runs. Since June 30th when we were 44-36, our record has been 24-34, and we have scored 267 runs while allowing 302.

    Guess what? A team that scores 267 runs and allows 302 runs should have an approximate winning percentage of .444. That's not exactly the type of winning percentage one wants to finish the rest of the season with, and that's an approximate record of 26-32. With a general manager making as many moves as Krivsky's made with the attempts to improve the club, his goal should be to score 302 runs while only allowing 267, not the other way around. The pythag winning percentage with that combo is .556, which comes out to a 32-26 record since the end of June. That's certainly better than .500, and that can minimize the damage done by pythag beating down the doors to our house.

    Now, our actual winning percentage since the beginning of July has been .413, which means much of the "good luck" we had during the first three months of the season has been negated and turned around in our faces. This should come as a surprise to absolutely nobody, nobody. This is merely pythag showing up on doorstep and beating down the doors.

    The key point to all the above is simple: Don't mess with pythag. Use pythag to let it help you course correct midseason with making the right moves and by not making the wrong moves.

    If you're four games better on June 30th than what you should be, then by golly go out to improve the team before pythag steps in and slaps you back to reality. This means going out and making moves with create positive returns on run value, which is creating a positive gap in runs scored and runs allowed. If you're a general manager attempting to improve a team midseason, then your charge is to recognize moves which fulfill that major goal of improving your team's run value, and if your moves fail to fulfill that goal, then you quite simply have failed to carry out your charge.

    As we have seen with the 2006 Reds, if moves are made which fail to create positive returns on run value and the goal is not met, then you just open the door for pythag to find you, stomp on you and state that you're not so lucky to be among the 1.55 percent of teams who have skirted by pythag right into the playoffs.

    Such is life. If you're a baseball team, run value is your life. Score runs, prevent runs; that's the game in a simple form. A general manager's charge is to make moves and slowly piece together a team that creates positive gains in run scoring and run prevention. It's not going to happen overnight, and it's a painfully slow process, but if you make x amount of moves over y amount of time with the goal of making a playoff chase, then at least try and be sure that those moves help your run value rather than hurt it.
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  6. #5
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    If you're a team that does nothing to help your run value, but instead makes moves that are more likely to hurt your run value, then the chances are far too great for pythag to step in and say, "Wait a minute, dude, not so fast."

    A few weeks ago, I pointed out that there has only been five teams in baseball history who have ever been outscored on the season yet still made the playoffs. Those five teams represent 1.55 percent of all playoff teams in history. Those are terrible odds to try and take.

    On June 30th, we were 44-36 and tied for first place with the Cardinals, yet we had scored 403 runs while allowing 401 runs. We were essentially a .500 team playing vastly above our heads, and we had been playing above our heads so much that we found ourselves in first place with people walking around town and prowling RedsZone saying, "I believe!"

    Well, that's all fine to believe, but if you're going to believe, then you need something realistic to believe in. Our run differential suggested we were going to soon get worse, not better, not even stay the same, but get worse. On the heels of an early July swoon, our general manager started making deal after deal after deal with the hopes that it would improve the club.

    But similarly to believing in the team, if you're making deals with hopes of improving the club, the key question becomes ... Well, have you really helped the club? Let's find out.

    It's now September 4th, and we've scored 670 runs while allowing 698 runs. Since June 30th when we were 44-36, our record has been 24-34, and we have scored 267 runs while allowing 302.

    Guess what? A team that scores 267 runs and allows 302 runs should have an approximate winning percentage of .444. That's not exactly the type of winning percentage one wants to finish the rest of the season with, and that's an approximate record of 26-32. With a general manager making as many moves as Krivsky's made with the attempts to improve the club, his goal should be to score 302 runs while only allowing 267, not the other way around. The pythag winning percentage with that combo is .556, which comes out to a 32-26 record since the end of June. That's certainly better than .500, and that can minimize the damage done by pythag beating down the doors to our house.

    Now, our actual winning percentage since the beginning of July has been .413, which means much of the "good luck" we had during the first three months of the season has been negated and turned around in our faces. This should come as a surprise to absolutely nobody, nobody. This is merely pythag showing up on doorstep and beating down the doors.

    The key point to all the above is simple: Don't mess with pythag. Use pythag to let it help you course correct midseason with making the right moves and by not making the wrong moves.

    If you're four games better on June 30th than what you should be, then by golly go out to improve the team before pythag steps in and slaps you back to reality. This means going out and making moves with create positive returns on run value, which is creating a positive gap in runs scored and runs allowed. If you're a general manager attempting to improve a team midseason, then your charge is to recognize moves which fulfill that major goal of improving your team's run value, and if your moves fail to fulfill that goal, then you quite simply have failed to carry out your charge.

    As we have seen with the 2006 Reds, if moves are made which fail to create positive returns on run value and the goal is not met, then you just open the door for pythag to find you, stomp on you and state that you're not so lucky to be among the 1.55 percent of teams who have skirted by pythag right into the playoffs.

    Such is life. If you're a baseball team, run value is your life. Score runs, prevent runs; that's the game in a simple form. A general manager's charge is to make moves and slowly piece together a team that creates positive gains in run scoring and run prevention. It's not going to happen overnight, and it's a painfully slow process, but if you make x amount of moves over y amount of time with the goal of making a playoff chase, then at least try and be sure that those moves help your run value rather than hurt it.

    I've said it a million times, but Beane consistently starts with basically an unfinished roster at the beginning of the season only to keep tweaking, building, and shuffling over the course of the season to get his team primed for the postseason. He gauges his numbers carefully and he executes, executes, executes--based on the NUMBERS, not gut feelings or connections to former teams. It's as much about tracing and tracking trends as it is knowing "what the team needs" in and of itself. Team construction is organic.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 09-04-2006 at 10:58 PM.

  7. #6
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I've said it a million times, but Beane consistently starts with basically an unfinished roster at the beginning of the season only to keep tweaking, building, and shuffling over the course of the season to get his team primed for the postseason. He gauges his numbers carefully and he executes, executes, executes--based on the NUMBERS, not gut feelings or connections to former teams.
    That's exactly why Beane is one of the best in the business. Piece together a team that will score roughly x amount of runs while giving up y amount of runs, and from that formula you can pretty much guarantee yourself a range of wins to put yourself in a great position to make the playoffs.

    It hasn't only been trades and acquisitions that have torn our run value to shreds either, but also internal roster management.
    • We've had one of our best hitters this season sitting on the bench for an extended period of time, and all that's going to do is suppress run scoring.
    • We've given far too much playing time to bad position players, and all that's going to do is suppress run scoring.
    • We've ran some idiotic lineups out there on more than a handful of games, and all that's going to do is suppress run scoring.
    • We've given far too many innings to bad starting pitchers who were known to be bad before ever pitching in a Reds uniform, turned out to be just as bad, and all that's going to do is open the floodgates for runs allowed.
    • We've had players playing out of position defensively, and all that's going to do is open the floodgates for runs allowed.
    • We've had our two best starting pitchers abused during the first half the season, and that's going to do is open up the floodgates for runs allowed in the second half if they struggle, which is much more likely due to the abuse.
    • We've had a manager make several questionable in-game strategic decisions, and that's going to add up and hurt our run value over a large quantity of games.

    The list goes on and on, and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few, but the above illustrates the point.

    Run value is a baseball team's lifespan, and if you choke your own run value and fail to maximize its potential, you're choking your own team's life potential. The Reds are guilty of that; most teams are guilty of that. But usually the teams that succeed are the teams that are less guilty of that than others. Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics are a prime example of a team that is almost always less guilty than everyone else of choking their maximum potential run value, and not surprisingly, they've been winning in recent regular seasons more than just about every other team in baseball.

    It's just bad decision-making all around, and it's now very much showing up in both our run value and in the standings.
    Last edited by Cyclone792; 09-04-2006 at 11:24 PM.
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    Beane hasn't really added anything to his team this year but made moves in years past to help his team by trading most of his free agent pitchers to be for almost ready prospects. You have to make smart decisions with your big league players when you have a small payroll. The Reds will have a lot of things to think about this summer and the biggest will be what to do with Rich Aurilla. He will be a Type A free agent this off-season. September will determine the future of the Reds.

  9. #8
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    That's exactly why Beane is one of the best in the business. Piece together a team that will score roughly x amount of runs while giving up y amount of runs, and from that formula you can pretty much guarantee yourself a range of wins to put yourself in a great position to make the playoffs.

    It hasn't even been trades and acquisitions that have torn our run value to shreds either, but also internal roster management.
    • We've had one of our best hitters this season sitting on the bench for an extended period of time, and all that's going to do is suppress run scoring.
    • We've given far too much playing time to bad position players, and all that's going to do is suppress run scoring.
    • We've ran some idiotic lineups out there on more than a handful of games, and all that's going to do is suppress run scoring.
    • We've given far too many innings to bad starting pitchers who were known to be bad before ever pitching in a Reds uniform, turned out to be just as bad, and all that's going to do is open the floodgates for runs allowed.
    • We've had players playing out of position defensively, and all that's going to do is open the floodgates for runs allowed.
    • We've had our two best starting pitchers abused during the first half the season, and that's going to do is open up the floodgates for runs allowed in the second half if they struggle, which is much more likely due to the abuse.
    • We've had a manager make several questionable in-game strategic decisions, and that's going to add up and hurt our run value over a large quantity of games.

    The list goes on and on, and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few, but the above illustrates the point.

    Run value is a baseball team's lifespan, and if you choke your own run value and fail to maximize its potential, you're choking your own team's life potential. The Reds are guilty of that; most teams are guilty of that. But usually the teams that succeed are the teams that are less guilty of that than others. Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics are a prime example of a team that is almost always less guilty than everyone else of choking their maximum potential run value, and not surprisingly, they've been winning in recent regular seasons more than just about every other team in baseball.

    It's just bad decision-making all around, and it's now very much showing up in both our run value and in the standings.
    All of the above I think more directly relates to Jerry Narron than Wayne Krivsky. More exhibits to the court as to why Jerry Narron needs to be replaced yesterday.

    Wayne seems to have made 1 suspect impact move to our squad with the Washington trade. All his other trades/moves have impacted our squad favorably.

    This team does have glaring weaknesses to be addressed in the offseason, but the biggest improvement starts with a new manager. After that, improving the pitching as a whole, and improving our bench should be at the top of any "to do" list.

    As an aside, the A's have won with Macha and Howe, so that dilutes the importance of a stable manager if you have a stable organization. The Reds aren't a stable organization, yet, but I think they're on the right track.

  10. #9
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    Last week I posted some well thought out, well researched numbers that showed a huge losing streak was on it's way. Guess what? I was right.

    Give me rep.

  11. #10
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    That's exactly why Beane is one of the best in the business. Piece together a team that will score roughly x amount of runs while giving up y amount of runs, and from that formula you can pretty much guarantee yourself a range of wins to put yourself in a great position to make the playoffs.
    Yep. Exactly. That's why I don't want to start a season with a team that projects fewer than 90 Wins based on Run Diff. Start with that and you can reasonably protect yourself from injuries (unless they're of the team-wide catastrophic 2005 Dodgers type) and allow yourself to take advantage of the organic nature of the baseball season.

    Run value is a baseball team's lifespan, and if you choke your own run value and fail to maximize its potential, you're choking your own team's life potential.
    Again, well said.
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    Adam Dunn
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  13. #12
    smells of rich mahogany deltachi8's Avatar
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    Well done Cyclone and FCB.
    Nothing to see here. Please disperse.

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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    All of the above I think more directly relates to Jerry Narron than Wayne Krivsky. More exhibits to the court as to why Jerry Narron needs to be replaced yesterday.

    This team does have glaring weaknesses to be addressed in the offseason, but the biggest improvement starts with a new manager. After that, improving the pitching as a whole, and improving our bench should be at the top of any "to do" list.

    As an aside, the A's have won with Macha and Howe, so that dilutes the importance of a stable manager if you have a stable organization. The Reds aren't a stable organization, yet, but I think they're on the right track.
    The manager has made suspect moves, but the biggest improvement has to be in the "core" -- I mean financial core -- of the team.

    Milton, Dunn and Griffey are by far the highest paid players. Next year they will earn $28 million. Look at their numbers, consider offense and defense, and decide for yourself if this is a winning core.

    Unless this is addressed effectively, the team can be managed by John McGraw and it won't make that much difference. In the context of a $60 million payroll, would Billy Beane use half of it in the same way?

  15. #14
    smells of rich mahogany deltachi8's Avatar
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    The problems on this team go well beyond Jerry Narron, though he does not help the matter. The starting pitching just simply isnt good enough. 40% of a reliable rotation wont make the playoffs.

    Defensively, the team is patched together inefficiently. Offensively, they dont flow well.

    The last two thing I mentioned can be helped by a good manager. The first one is where it all starts, and thats for Wayne to address.
    Nothing to see here. Please disperse.

  16. #15
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    Re: Reality? 17th Best Record in MLB

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The manager has made suspect moves, but the biggest improvement has to be in the "core" -- I mean financial core -- of the team.

    Milton, Dunn and Griffey are by far the highest paid players. Next year they will earn $28 million. Look at their numbers, consider offense and defense, and decide for yourself if this is a winning core.

    Unless this is addressed effectively, the team can be managed by John McGraw and it won't make that much difference. In the context of a $60 million payroll, would Billy Beane use half of it in the same way?
    I do agree that the finances need to be addressed effectively, and that's a vital charge, but regarding Beane and those three ...

    Beane shipped out Mulder and Hudson before each of them reached the point where their talent was declining as their salary was spiking so I highly doubt he'd have brought in guys such as Griffey and Milton who were most definitely going to fit that description.

    Billy Beane would never have given Eric Milton the contract that Dan O'Brien gave Eric Milton. Likewise, I actually highly doubt Billy Beane would have traded for Ken Griffey, Jr. and given Griffey the contract that Jim Bowden gave Griffey. If Griffey accepts a trade with a three year contract, I can possibly see Beane taking that deal. But not with the amount of years that Griffey got from Bowden.

    He probably would have extended Dunn's contract, and then I'm certain he would have used the money currently going to Griffey and Milton in a far better fashion than we've seen it used. Even if Griffey accepts a trade here for a shorter contract via Beane in 2000, Griffey's very likely already gone anyway by 2006 if Beane's in charge the entire time.
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