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Thread: 2006-2007 Payroll

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    2006-2007 Payroll

    From time to time on here the subject of what the Reds' payroll will be or what a certain player(s) will be making the following season. It's always an interesting topic for discussion and in the past the Reds' front office has said to not expect a significant increase in payroll the next season because of who is under contract or because certain players are arbitration eligible and will be given hefty raises.

    This didn't always ring true to me so I decided to see for myself what the straight story was. A few years ago I started tracking who was on the team, what salary they made and what salary they would command for next year. Thanks to JAX's site and other sources as well, I developed a spreadsheet devoted to that. This spreadsheet assumes that if the players under contract and under the Reds control are all re-signed and any player whose contract is up will not come back.

    In this spreadsheet I've broken players down into 5 categories:
    • Arbitration Eligible Players
    • Arbitration Ineligible Players
    • Players Receiving Increases In Salary
    • Players Receiving Decreases In Salary
    • Players That Have No Change In Salary
    For all players who are eligible and ineligible for arbitration, I have assumed that the Reds are going to bring all of them back. Obviously that's not going to happen but most of these guys would fall in the latter category and won't swing the figures significantly one way or the other. I have also highlighted certain salaries in red. These are estimated salaries. I am making an educated guess as to what these players will be making next season. Also, I do not believe the minimum salary of $327,000 will be increasing for 2007. Again, that is not going to make a huge difference in payroll for the following season even if there was a small raise.

    Players receiving increases in salary may be arbitration eligible but have already signed a contract for the following season. This category may also include players who are free agents but have a buyout in excess of what they made this year. Players who have player options for next year that, if they picked it up, would increase their salaries are also included.

    Players receiving decreases in salary may have a buyout that would be less than what they made this year.

    I have also chosen to use $12.5M for the salary the Reds pay Ken Griffey, Jr. since, even though they are deferring that salary, they are paying out $12.5M one way or another.

    You'll also see some odd figures for some players, particularly the ones the Reds acquired during the season. This is an estimated amount of what the Reds will have paid them from when they joined the team until their contract was up or traded. Again, those figures will be in red.

    If you have any questions or if I've omitted anyone or screwed something up, let me know. Many thanks to JAX and his website for most of these figures.
    Code:
     
    Arbitration Eligible     2006 Salary     2007 Salary
    Grant Balfour                340,000         500,000
    Aaron Harang               2,350,000       5,000,000
    Sun-Woo Kim                  100,000       1,000,000
    Kyle Lohse                 1,316,667       4,500,000
    Total Arb Eligible         4,106,667      11,000,000
     
    Arbitration Ineligible   2006 Salary     2007 Salary
    Andy Abad                     20,000         327,000
    Matt Belisle                 327,000         350,000
    William Bergolla               2,000         327,000
    Bill Bray                    150,000         350,000
    Brandon Claussen             370,000         500,000
    Todd Coffey                  339,000         400,000
    Chris Denorfia               200,000         327,000
    Phil Dumatrait                     0         327,000
    Edwin Encarnacion            332,500         500,000
    Michael Gosling                3,500         327,000
    Brendon Harris               120,000         327,000
    Norris Hopper                120,000         327,000
    Anderson Machado                   0         327,000
    Gary Majewski                208,000         375,000
    Chris Michalek                80,000         327,000
    Ray Olmedo                   100,000         327,000
    Miguel Perez                       0         327,000
    Elizardo Ramirez             310,000         350,000
    David Ross                   500,000         750,000
    Dane Sardinha                      0         327,000
    Brian Shackelford            230,000         350,000
    Jason Standridge             240,000         350,000
    Joey Votto                         0         327,000
    Brandon Watson                 1,700         327,000
    Total Arb Ineligible       3,653,700       8,853,000
     
    Salary Increases         2006 Salary     2007 Salary
    Bronson Arroyo             2,750,000       3,800,000
    Rheal Cormier                833,333       2,250,000
    Adam Dunn                  7,500,000      10,500,000
    Ryan Freel                 1,300,000       2,650,000
    Chris Hammond                800,000       2,000,000
    Scott Hatteberg              750,000       1,500,000
    Jason LaRue                3,900,000       5,200,000
    Eric Milton                8,000,000       9,000,000
    Javier Valentin            1,150,000       1,250,000
    Total Salary Increases    26,983,333      38,150,000
     
    Salary Decreases         2006 Salary     2007 Salary
    Rich Aurilia               1,300,000               0
    Mike Burns                    60,424               0
    Juan Castro                  660,000               0
    Royce Clayton                416,667               0
    Ryan Franklin                866,666               0
    Justin Germano                14,000               0
    Eddie Guardado               800,000               0
    Todd Hollandsworth           300,000               0
    Jason Johnson                 50,000               0
    Austin Kearns                925,000               0
    Felipe Lopez               1,350,000               0
    Joe Mays                     327,000               0
    Quinton McCracken            327,000               0
    Kent Mercker               1,350,000               0
    Cody Ross                     50,000               0
    Scott Schoeneweis            800,000               0
    Ryan Wagner                  280,000               0
    David Weathers             1,250,000               0
    Rick White                   300,000               0
    Dave Williams                966,666               0
    Paul Wilson                3,700,000         850,000
    Tony Womack                1,100,000               0
    Estaban Yan                  869,565               0
    Total Salary Decreases    18,062,988         850,000
     
    No Changes In Salary     2006 Salary     2007 Salary              
    Ken Griffey, Jr.          12,500,000      12,500,000
    Total No Changes          12,500,000      12,500,000
     
    Grand Total               65,306,688      71,353,000
    Last edited by Chip R; 09-11-2006 at 05:11 PM.
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  3. #2
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    If we can't get rid of Milton and LaRue this offseason, I think the chances of Adam Dunn being moved increase.

    Thanks for the post, Chip. Good stuff.
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    Passion for the game Team Clark's Avatar
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    I am curious as to why all of the Minor League guys are being counted as $327,000 when they have split contracts. They do not get paid 327K while in AAA. (i.e. Dumatrait, M. Perez, Machado, Olmedo, Votto & Bergolla) You can throw Gosling in there too. They have split contracts that pay 50-60K in the Minors and then they get paid the 327K upon reaching the bigs. (There is a minimum based on years of service for the minor league contracts but I can not remember what it is at the moment) Balfour will be LUCKY to get a contract at all. If he does he's not getting 500K. I would re-work that before putting together payroll projections.

    You have Belisle at 350K for '07 but have Balfour and Kim making more? Not in this lifetime. Kim would love to have you as his agent! 1 Million? With his numbers! The Reds would foam at the mouth to take him to arbitration. Coffey is listed at 400k which I suspect he will get more. He'll end up in over 80 games. Belisle will get 400K.

    Good work but missing a few key components. Jax's site is the bomb!
    It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    Chris Hammond @ 2 million? Do we have to pay his option by DFA'ing him?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    Quote Originally Posted by Team Clark View Post
    I am curious as to why all of the Minor League guys are being counted as $327,000 when they have split contracts. They do not get paid 327K while in AAA. (i.e. Dumatrait, M. Perez, Machado, Olmedo, Votto & Bergolla) You can throw Gosling in there too. They have split contracts that pay 50-60K in the Minors and then they get paid the 327K upon reaching the bigs. (There is a minimum based on years of service for the minor league contracts but I can not remember what it is at the moment) Balfour will be LUCKY to get a contract at all. If he does he's not getting 500K. I would re-work that before putting together payroll projections.

    You have Belisle at 350K for '07 but have Balfour and Kim making more? Not in this lifetime. Kim would love to have you as his agent! 1 Million? With his numbers! The Reds would foam at the mouth to take him to arbitration. Coffey is listed at 400k which I suspect he will get more. He'll end up in over 80 games. Belisle will get 400K.

    Good work but missing a few key components. Jax's site is the bomb!
    Yeah, I know. But that's assuming they all make the roster which they won't but it doesn't make a whole lot of difference anyway.

    If you look again at the list, Belisle is not arbitration eligible and has been hurt most of the year but Balfour and Kim are. Arbitration is funny, you never know what someone's going to make. Neither Balfour or Kim will probably be with the Reds in 07 anyway so that's not that big of a deal. Coffey did appear in a lot of games but he hasn't had the best of years. He didn't pan out as the closer and he gives up a lot of hits. But it's not like they are going to pay him $1M anyway.
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    According to the website, Cot's baseball blog, Ross is arbitration eligible after this season (he had more than 3 complete seasons of major league service coming into 2006). With the season he's currently having, he could, at minimum, double his salary.
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    Milton, Griffey, Dunn, Larue. These are the pressure points in terms of salary next year. For Reds to have any flexibility they will have to move some of these contracts.

    Milton -- wrong pitcher for GABP. Reds presumably will try to move him to a friendlier ballpark and replace him with a ground ball type.

    Griffey/Dunn -- would guess that Krivsky will try to move one and replace with speedier outfielder. A lot of money for these two next year.

    Larue -- makes no sense to pay him if he is a backup now.

    Making these deals is not easy and may not happen. All these guys make real money and some have special rights.

    Don't know why an arbitrator would give Lohse $4.5 million. I know he has a fairly big contract now, but his overall 2005 stats aren't good. Does he have rights to that amount next year?
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-11-2006 at 06:44 PM.

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    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Milton, Griffey, Dunn, Larue. These are the pressure points in terms of salary next year. For Reds to have any flexibility they will have to move some of these contracts.

    Milton -- wrong pitcher for GABP. Reds presumably will try to move him to a friendlier ballpark and replace him with a ground ball type.

    Griffey/Dunn -- would guess that Krivsky will try to move one and replace with speedier outfielder. A lot of money for these two next year.

    Larue -- makes no sense to pay him if he is a backup now.

    Making these deals is not easy and may not happen. All these guys make real money and some have special rights.
    I like your caveat at the end, because none of these guys would be easy to move with out losing money, except for Dunn. Dunn would (should) bring some excellent young talent if he is moved.

    Milton- we're "stuck" with him, unless we kick in some $$ to move him, and why don't we just pay him to pitch for us instead of someone else? Plus, I've been generally happy with the way he's pitched since he got his kneee problem straightened out. He's done a good job this summer. I agree with you that he doesn't match this ballpark very well (thanks, DO'B).

    Junior- what can you do with him? Move him from CF, certainly, but unless Steinbrenner gets a wild notion that Junior must retire as a Yankee, he's here until he plays out his contract or retires. Plus, if Dunn goes for pitching, we're gonna need Junior to hit some HR's for this team. From LF, RF, 1B, it doesn't matter to me. Problem is that he and Dunner are both LF'ers at this point.

    LaRue- a mystery, totally. He seems to have lost his confidence, to me. I don't know if anyone in recent baseball history has ever lost it so quickly, but I know he's not as bad a hitter as his numbers say they are this year. His defense has been steady though- I think he's easily our best defensive catcher. Ross is coming back to earth, and Valentin is not an everyday catcher. I'd hang on to LaRue for a while- someone will always be in need of a decent receiver an may bite the bullet, maybe towards the end of spring training.

    Dunn- I'd keep him on my team. Put him in LF, put someone with range next to him, and don't worry about him. The usual numbers will be there at the end of the year; 40 HR, 100 BB, 100 RBI, 100 R, 10 errors. But no injury; he's seldom hurt, always shows up and is streaky as all get out. Again, I'd build my offense around he, Edwin and Phillips.

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    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Chris Hammond @ 2 million? Do we have to pay his option by DFA'ing him?
    Hammond had a mutual option with a buyout based on appearances. We owe him nothing next year.

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    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    Off the top of my head, I thought Freel was $3 mm for two years, not $4 mm...am I wrong?
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    I like your caveat at the end, because none of these guys would be easy to move with out losing money, except for Dunn. Dunn would (should) bring some excellent young talent if he is moved.

    Milton- we're "stuck" with him, unless we kick in some $$ to move him, and why don't we just pay him to pitch for us instead of someone else? Plus, I've been generally happy with the way he's pitched since he got his kneee problem straightened out. He's done a good job this summer. I agree with you that he doesn't match this ballpark very well (thanks, DO'B).

    Junior- what can you do with him? Move him from CF, certainly, but unless Steinbrenner gets a wild notion that Junior must retire as a Yankee, he's here until he plays out his contract or retires. Plus, if Dunn goes for pitching, we're gonna need Junior to hit some HR's for this team. From LF, RF, 1B, it doesn't matter to me. Problem is that he and Dunner are both LF'ers at this point.

    I don't think Krivsky will throw up his hands and say that guys like Milton can't be moved. He is very focused on pitching and defense and the candidates for trades are pretty obvious. Milton has been better this year, and I hope he does well tomorrow, but he is not a fit at GABP.

    Krivsky has already shown that he won't accept Jim Bowden's core of players. (O'Brien didn't really change the major league core.) I think everyone is fair game in the offseason except perhaps the two stud pitchers, Harang and Arroyo, and the two young infielders, EE and Phillips.

    I don't know what Krivsky will do with Dunn, except that Adam gets a lot of money soon and, if Wayne doesn't view him as the future, this off-season would be the logical time to move him.

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    Passion for the game Team Clark's Avatar
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Yeah, I know. But that's assuming they all make the roster which they won't but it doesn't make a whole lot of difference anyway.

    If you look again at the list, Belisle is not arbitration eligible and has been hurt most of the year but Balfour and Kim are. Arbitration is funny, you never know what someone's going to make. Neither Balfour or Kim will probably be with the Reds in 07 anyway so that's not that big of a deal. Coffey did appear in a lot of games but he hasn't had the best of years. He didn't pan out as the closer and he gives up a lot of hits. But it's not like they are going to pay him $1M anyway.
    I see your point. Looking over the payroll it seems like the impact of the aforementioned parties would only effect the payroll by a slim margin. All in all I really like the concept and can appreciate the time you put in. Good stuff.
    It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Yeah, I know. But that's assuming they all make the roster which they won't but it doesn't make a whole lot of difference anyway.
    .

    According to my count, you have 38 players making at least the minimum next year. I think for the purposes of estimation, it would be best to subtract 13 * minimum for next year.. that cuts about 4.2 million off next years budget, which is pretty significant. True, they might have a Balfour or two that they will pay all year to not be on the ML roster.

    After that adjustment, the projected payroll only jumps about 2 million instead of 6 million, so it is kind of significant.
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    According to my count, you have 38 players making at least the minimum next year. I think for the purposes of estimation, it would be best to subtract 13 * minimum for next year.. that cuts about 4.2 million off next years budget, which is pretty significant. True, they might have a Balfour or two that they will pay all year to not be on the ML roster.

    After that adjustment, the projected payroll only jumps about 2 million instead of 6 million, so it is kind of significant.

    Also subtract $2 Million for Hammond and $1 Million for Kim. If you can dump Larue that would be about $12 Million to work with. With the new TV deal I have to believe that the Payroll will top $70 Million in 2007.

    Please don't take my nitpicking as criticism. This was a very useful thread and I am glad you posted it.

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    Re: 2006-2007 Payroll

    Maybe I'm in the minority, but how much of a priority is it to get rid of LaRue in the offseason? If that's not 1 on the list, man, it should be.


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