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Thread: REDS Chances

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  1. #1
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    REDS Chances

    This will appear simple for the Stat majors, but I ran a little simulation to evaluation the REDS chances to make the wild card, using the classic binomial distribution.

    I'm assuming 85 wins will be required. (14 wins out of 19 games remaining).

    If we consider the probability of winning any one game at 50%

    n=19
    P= 0.5

    Prob (14 or more) = 3.18%
    Prob (13 or more) = 8.35%

    Factor in the weakness of schedule and put (its a stretch, I know) p at 55%

    n = 19
    p = 0.55

    Prob (14 or more) = 7.78%
    Prob (13 or more) = 17.3%


    Not good odds, but hey...we've seen it worse.

    GO REDS!

    http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/apple...omialdemo.html
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

  2. #2
    Raaaaaaaandy guttle11's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    "...like one in a thousand?"

    "More like one in a million."

    "So you're telling me there's a chance!"
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

  3. #3
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Sounds like fuzzy math to me! Good stuff, oneupper, and puts it into perspective... how long the odds are for the REDS.

    The REDS best 19 game stretch this year was...
    * Apr. 15 - May 4
    >> 13-6 record.

    Best 19 game stretch since the All-Star Break was...
    * Aug. 4 - Aug. 23
    >> 11-8 record.
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  4. #4
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966 View Post
    Sounds like fuzzy math to me! Good stuff, oneupper, and puts it into perspective... how long the odds are for the REDS.

    The REDS best 19 game stretch this year was...
    * Apr. 15 - May 4
    >> 13-6 record.

    Best 19 game stretch since the All-Star Break was...
    * Aug. 4 - Aug. 23
    >> 11-8 record.
    Great stat.. sad.. but great!

  5. #5
    Member jimbo's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11 View Post
    "...like one in a thousand?"

    "More like one in a million."

    "So you're telling me there's a chance!"
    Great Dumb & Dumber reference.

  6. #6
    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Nice to see "slim chance" quantified.
    /r/reds

  7. #7
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    After the victory over the Padres:

    n=18
    p = 0.5
    Prob (13 or more) = 4.8%

    n= 18
    p = 0.55
    Prob (13 or more wins) = 10.8%

    Still a long shot.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

  8. #8
    Just The Big Picture macro's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    For 84-78 to win the wildcard, San Diego will have to go 10-9 the rest of the way to tie, while Florida goes 11-7, Philadelphia and San Francisco go 12-7, and the Reds go 12-6. Chances are pretty good that one of those five teams will achieve at least that, so an estimate of 84 wins is probably pretty accurate.

    However, it wouldn't be shocking to see none of those teams do worse than the above stated records, so 83 could be enough to slip into a one-game playoff for the wildcard. Not saying I would bet money that 83 wins will be enough, but just grasping for optimism. And besides, the NL has been a .500 league all season, so it's not wildly unreasonable to hope that the other teams continue their .500 ways while the Reds go 11-7 and force a tie with somebody.

    The thing that Reds fans, and the players on this team, will have think about all winter is "What if they had gone just 4-5 or 3-6 in those last nine West Coast games instead of 1-8?" My question is, who will agonize over it more this winter, the fans or the players?

    Help stamp out, eliminate, and do away with redundancy.

  9. #9
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by macro View Post
    The thing that Reds fans, and the players on this team, will have think about all winter is "What if they had gone just 4-5 or 3-6 in those last nine West Coast games instead of 1-8?" My question is, who will agonize over it more this winter, the fans or the players?
    The fans, or at least some of them. The players and most fans, if they think about it at all, will realize the futility of placing too much emphasis on a single road trip. One that amounted to way less than 1% of the games played in a very long season.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  10. #10
    Just The Big Picture macro's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2 View Post
    The fans, or at least some of them. The players and most fans, if they think about it at all, will realize the futility of placing too much emphasis on a single road trip. One that amounted to way less than 1% of the games played in a very long season.
    Actually, the nine game stretch that I referred to amounted to 5.6% of the games played in a season. Doesn't sound like much, but one game in the NFL is about the same, and one single game has kept many NFL teams out of the postseason. One game has kept many MLB teams out of the postseason, as well, so I don't regard the tanking of a nine game stretch to be minor. In a close pennant race, it's huge, and it kept this team out the postseason.

    Help stamp out, eliminate, and do away with redundancy.

  11. #11
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by macro
    Actually, the nine game stretch that I referred to amounted to 5.6% of the games played in a season.
    Yep, your correct. I seem to have lost the ability to perform simple mathematical calculations.

    Quote Originally Posted by macro
    Doesn't sound like much, but one game in the NFL is about the same, and one single game has kept many NFL teams out of the postseason. One game has kept many MLB teams out of the postseason, as well, so I don't regard the tanking of a nine game stretch to be minor. In a close pennant race, it's huge, and it kept this team out the postseason.
    Mathematical calculations aside, my original premise remains the same. The fans, much less the players, shouldn't place too much emphasis on a single stretch of games during a long season for the reason said team didn't make the playoffs.

    Sure one game has kept MLB teams out of the postseason before, but when your reducing it to one, two, or even three games between making it or not, how is the west coast road trip any more important than say the 2-5 homestand in June? How about the 1-6 homestand before the All-Star break, or even the 4-5 record on their most current homestand? It's not of course, but it is the thing that will drive some fans crazy between hotstove reports this winter.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  12. #12
    Just The Big Picture macro's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2 View Post
    Mathematical calculations aside, my original premise remains the same. The fans, much less the players, shouldn't place too much emphasis on a single stretch of games during a long season for the reason said team didn't make the playoffs.

    Sure one game has kept MLB teams out of the postseason before, but when your reducing it to one, two, or even three games between making it or not, how is the west coast road trip any more important than say the 2-5 homestand in June? How about the 1-6 homestand before the All-Star break, or even the 4-5 record on their most current homestand? It's not of course, but it is the thing that will drive some fans crazy between hotstove reports this winter.
    You're right, no one stretch is any more important than any other, but I think the last one (the West Coast one) will be the one that sticks out in my mind for years to come because of the point in the season when it occurred.

    The Reds were tied for first and 2 or 2.5 ahead in the Wild Card (I think) after the first game of the trip and came home something like 4 or 5 games out of first and way down the Wild Card list. The effects of this stretch were felt in the standings in a very dramatic way, and they went from a team on a roll toward the postseason to a team struggling to stay alive in a matter of only nine days.

    Technically, this stretch was no more harmful than any other losing streak, but it won't be perceived that way by many or most.

    Help stamp out, eliminate, and do away with redundancy.

  13. #13
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by macro View Post
    However, it wouldn't be shocking to see none of those teams do worse than the above stated records, so 83 could be enough to slip into a one-game playoff for the wildcard. Not saying I would bet money that 83 wins will be enough, but just grasping for optimism. And besides, the NL has been a .500 league all season, so it's not wildly unreasonable to hope that the other teams continue their .500 ways while the Reds go 11-7 and force a tie with somebody.
    Funnily enough, here were my predictions for the NL Central this year over at deadspin.com, which at the time were kind of bizarro I think since everyone was calling for the Brewers to surprise, the Cubs to be good, and the Reds to finish last:

    It's too early for the Brewers. They'll have a great first half, make the Cards nervous, fall apart, and go from fourth in 2006 to first next year. Pirates suck no matter what happens. Cubs cry no matter what happens. Astros shock everybody and manage to pull out second again. Cincinnati trades for pitching before the deadline and pulls up to third with only 82 wins. This is a terrible division by the way.

    Maybe I will be proven a prophet! I hope not.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  14. #14
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Only thing that matter now is the next game in this series.

    One down, two to go.

    A sweep and this team is more than alive.

    Make it happen, boys.

  15. #15
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Only thing that matter now is the next game in this series.

    One down, two to go.

    A sweep and this team is more than alive.

    Make it happen, boys.
    Exactly!


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