Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 46

Thread: REDS Chances

  1. #1
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Back in Florida
    Posts
    8,139

    REDS Chances

    This will appear simple for the Stat majors, but I ran a little simulation to evaluation the REDS chances to make the wild card, using the classic binomial distribution.

    I'm assuming 85 wins will be required. (14 wins out of 19 games remaining).

    If we consider the probability of winning any one game at 50%

    n=19
    P= 0.5

    Prob (14 or more) = 3.18%
    Prob (13 or more) = 8.35%

    Factor in the weakness of schedule and put (its a stretch, I know) p at 55%

    n = 19
    p = 0.55

    Prob (14 or more) = 7.78%
    Prob (13 or more) = 17.3%


    Not good odds, but hey...we've seen it worse.

    GO REDS!

    http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/apple...omialdemo.html
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Raaaaaaaandy guttle11's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    4,118

    Re: REDS Chances

    "...like one in a thousand?"

    "More like one in a million."

    "So you're telling me there's a chance!"
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

  4. #3
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Oakwood, OH
    Posts
    11,663

    Re: REDS Chances

    Sounds like fuzzy math to me! Good stuff, oneupper, and puts it into perspective... how long the odds are for the REDS.

    The REDS best 19 game stretch this year was...
    * Apr. 15 - May 4
    >> 13-6 record.

    Best 19 game stretch since the All-Star Break was...
    * Aug. 4 - Aug. 23
    >> 11-8 record.
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  5. #4
    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    San Antonio
    Posts
    13,438

    Re: REDS Chances

    Nice to see "slim chance" quantified.
    /r/reds

  6. #5
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Back in Florida
    Posts
    8,139

    Re: REDS Chances

    After the victory over the Padres:

    n=18
    p = 0.5
    Prob (13 or more) = 4.8%

    n= 18
    p = 0.55
    Prob (13 or more wins) = 10.8%

    Still a long shot.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

  7. #6
    Just The Big Picture macro's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2000
    Location
    The Bluegrass State
    Posts
    6,150

    Re: REDS Chances

    For 84-78 to win the wildcard, San Diego will have to go 10-9 the rest of the way to tie, while Florida goes 11-7, Philadelphia and San Francisco go 12-7, and the Reds go 12-6. Chances are pretty good that one of those five teams will achieve at least that, so an estimate of 84 wins is probably pretty accurate.

    However, it wouldn't be shocking to see none of those teams do worse than the above stated records, so 83 could be enough to slip into a one-game playoff for the wildcard. Not saying I would bet money that 83 wins will be enough, but just grasping for optimism. And besides, the NL has been a .500 league all season, so it's not wildly unreasonable to hope that the other teams continue their .500 ways while the Reds go 11-7 and force a tie with somebody.

    The thing that Reds fans, and the players on this team, will have think about all winter is "What if they had gone just 4-5 or 3-6 in those last nine West Coast games instead of 1-8?" My question is, who will agonize over it more this winter, the fans or the players?

    Help stamp out, eliminate, and do away with redundancy.

  8. #7
    Member jimbo's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Troy, OH
    Posts
    2,630

    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11 View Post
    "...like one in a thousand?"

    "More like one in a million."

    "So you're telling me there's a chance!"
    Great Dumb & Dumber reference.

  9. #8
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Posts
    4,078

    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966 View Post
    Sounds like fuzzy math to me! Good stuff, oneupper, and puts it into perspective... how long the odds are for the REDS.

    The REDS best 19 game stretch this year was...
    * Apr. 15 - May 4
    >> 13-6 record.

    Best 19 game stretch since the All-Star Break was...
    * Aug. 4 - Aug. 23
    >> 11-8 record.
    Great stat.. sad.. but great!

  10. #9
    Member membengal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    8,957

    Re: REDS Chances

    Only thing that matter now is the next game in this series.

    One down, two to go.

    A sweep and this team is more than alive.

    Make it happen, boys.

  11. #10
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Posts
    4,078

    Re: REDS Chances

    everyone ahead of us in the Wild Card race has been to the playoffs since we have besides the Phillies and they are the city with brotherly love..

  12. #11
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Winton Place
    Posts
    11,117

    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Only thing that matter now is the next game in this series.

    One down, two to go.

    A sweep and this team is more than alive.

    Make it happen, boys.
    Exactly!

  13. #12
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Posts
    3,244

    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by macro View Post
    The thing that Reds fans, and the players on this team, will have think about all winter is "What if they had gone just 4-5 or 3-6 in those last nine West Coast games instead of 1-8?" My question is, who will agonize over it more this winter, the fans or the players?
    The fans, or at least some of them. The players and most fans, if they think about it at all, will realize the futility of placing too much emphasis on a single road trip. One that amounted to way less than 1% of the games played in a very long season.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  14. #13
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Posts
    3,244

    Re: REDS Chances

    As of this morning, the Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds for the Reds winning the Wild Card stand at 5.28118%. The PECOTA adjusted odds of them winning the WC are even less, 4.94984%.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  15. #14
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    Dublin, OH
    Posts
    5,328

    Re: REDS Chances

    I would think that if they won the next two (putting them 1/2 game back), those percentages have to shoot up to something like 25-30%.

    5% to 25-30%. that's a pretty big jump for two games. Of course, it's late and every game is huge at this point.

    We'll see.

  16. #15
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Pittsburgh
    Posts
    7,166

    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by macro View Post
    However, it wouldn't be shocking to see none of those teams do worse than the above stated records, so 83 could be enough to slip into a one-game playoff for the wildcard. Not saying I would bet money that 83 wins will be enough, but just grasping for optimism. And besides, the NL has been a .500 league all season, so it's not wildly unreasonable to hope that the other teams continue their .500 ways while the Reds go 11-7 and force a tie with somebody.
    Funnily enough, here were my predictions for the NL Central this year over at deadspin.com, which at the time were kind of bizarro I think since everyone was calling for the Brewers to surprise, the Cubs to be good, and the Reds to finish last:

    It's too early for the Brewers. They'll have a great first half, make the Cards nervous, fall apart, and go from fourth in 2006 to first next year. Pirates suck no matter what happens. Cubs cry no matter what happens. Astros shock everybody and manage to pull out second again. Cincinnati trades for pitching before the deadline and pulls up to third with only 82 wins. This is a terrible division by the way.

    Maybe I will be proven a prophet! I hope not.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25