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Thread: REDS Chances

  1. #16
    Just The Big Picture macro's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2 View Post
    The fans, or at least some of them. The players and most fans, if they think about it at all, will realize the futility of placing too much emphasis on a single road trip. One that amounted to way less than 1% of the games played in a very long season.
    Actually, the nine game stretch that I referred to amounted to 5.6% of the games played in a season. Doesn't sound like much, but one game in the NFL is about the same, and one single game has kept many NFL teams out of the postseason. One game has kept many MLB teams out of the postseason, as well, so I don't regard the tanking of a nine game stretch to be minor. In a close pennant race, it's huge, and it kept this team out the postseason.

    Help stamp out, eliminate, and do away with redundancy.

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  3. #17
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Only thing that matter now is the next game in this series.

    One down, two to go.

    A sweep and this team is more than alive.

    Make it happen, boys.
    Never mind.

  4. #18
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    You want to believe their's a chance. But the fact that they win one.. then lose the next dampers any thought of postseason hopes. The fact is that the Reds still have a chance.. they're not mathmatically eliminated. Another fact is the Reds need to start winning and start now! Jerry Narron has been probably the center of the heat and to be honest deservably so. The idea of last nights line-up putting a run on the board were slim to none when facing a ace like Peavy. Jerry needs to pull out all his ammo for the stretch and him ammo better not be duds. These guys need to play that much harder because other teams arn't giving up. It's going to be interesting to say the least..

  5. #19
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Odd of winning 13 of remaing 17 (85 wins), now stand at"

    p = 0.5
    2.45%
    p=0.55
    5.96%

    Winning two out of three from here on is probably not going to be good enough.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

  6. #20
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Win today and you might have a slimmer of hope.

    Lose and it's all over.

    Simple as that.
    "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill

  7. #21
    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan30 View Post
    Win today and you might have a slimmer of hope.

    Lose and it's all over.

    Simple as that.
    not true, statistically.
    redsrule2500
    Go Reds!
    Baseball Bliss
    Im a normal guy blessed with the ability to hit a baseball. - Sean Casey

  8. #22
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    I have given up hope of winning either the wild card or the division, with the way the team has been playing lately. That's just realism.

    What I'm rooting for now, is to finish in 2nd place, ahead of the STINKIN Astros.!

  9. #23
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Odd of winning 13 of remaing 17 (85 wins), now stand at"

    p = 0.5
    2.45%
    p=0.55
    5.96%

    Winning two out of three from here on is probably not going to be good enough.
    Amazing how much damage a single loss can do to your odds at this stage. Doesn't help that the Reds have got to climb over four other teams either.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  10. #24
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Amazing how much damage a single loss can do to your odds at this stage. Doesn't help that the Reds have got to climb over four other teams either.
    At this point the Reds have to climb over more bodies then Bob Crane at an orgy.

  11. #25
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Amazing how much damage a single loss can do to your odds at this stage. Doesn't help that the Reds have got to climb over four other teams either.
    Just like in a game you run out of outs, in a season you run out of losses.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

  12. #26
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    At this point the Reds have to climb over more bodies then Bob Crane at an orgy.
    Talk about being in a position where you can afford a wrong step.
    Last edited by M2; 09-14-2006 at 01:27 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  13. #27
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    At this point the Reds have to climb over more bodies then Bob Crane at an orgy.


    Does this mean the REDS will be filming the rest of their games w/ a home-movie camera!??!
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  14. #28
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by macro
    Actually, the nine game stretch that I referred to amounted to 5.6% of the games played in a season.
    Yep, your correct. I seem to have lost the ability to perform simple mathematical calculations.

    Quote Originally Posted by macro
    Doesn't sound like much, but one game in the NFL is about the same, and one single game has kept many NFL teams out of the postseason. One game has kept many MLB teams out of the postseason, as well, so I don't regard the tanking of a nine game stretch to be minor. In a close pennant race, it's huge, and it kept this team out the postseason.
    Mathematical calculations aside, my original premise remains the same. The fans, much less the players, shouldn't place too much emphasis on a single stretch of games during a long season for the reason said team didn't make the playoffs.

    Sure one game has kept MLB teams out of the postseason before, but when your reducing it to one, two, or even three games between making it or not, how is the west coast road trip any more important than say the 2-5 homestand in June? How about the 1-6 homestand before the All-Star break, or even the 4-5 record on their most current homestand? It's not of course, but it is the thing that will drive some fans crazy between hotstove reports this winter.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  15. #29
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    As of Thu Sep 14 19:46:27 2006 PT, Baseball Perspectus' Postseason Odds for the Reds are 3.69777 for winning the Wild Card and 5.36020 for winning the division (non PECOTA adjusted).
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  16. #30
    Just The Big Picture macro's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2 View Post
    Mathematical calculations aside, my original premise remains the same. The fans, much less the players, shouldn't place too much emphasis on a single stretch of games during a long season for the reason said team didn't make the playoffs.

    Sure one game has kept MLB teams out of the postseason before, but when your reducing it to one, two, or even three games between making it or not, how is the west coast road trip any more important than say the 2-5 homestand in June? How about the 1-6 homestand before the All-Star break, or even the 4-5 record on their most current homestand? It's not of course, but it is the thing that will drive some fans crazy between hotstove reports this winter.
    You're right, no one stretch is any more important than any other, but I think the last one (the West Coast one) will be the one that sticks out in my mind for years to come because of the point in the season when it occurred.

    The Reds were tied for first and 2 or 2.5 ahead in the Wild Card (I think) after the first game of the trip and came home something like 4 or 5 games out of first and way down the Wild Card list. The effects of this stretch were felt in the standings in a very dramatic way, and they went from a team on a roll toward the postseason to a team struggling to stay alive in a matter of only nine days.

    Technically, this stretch was no more harmful than any other losing streak, but it won't be perceived that way by many or most.

    Help stamp out, eliminate, and do away with redundancy.


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