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Thread: REDS Chances

  1. #31
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2 View Post
    As of Thu Sep 14 19:46:27 2006 PT, Baseball Perspectus' Postseason Odds for the Reds are 3.69777 for winning the Wild Card and 5.36020 for winning the division (non PECOTA adjusted).
    It's now dropped to 3.46853 for the division and 2.03104 for the Wild Card. PECOTA-adjusted it's 3.59142 for the division and 1.89284 for the Wild Card. ELO-adjusted it's 2.24986 for the division and 1.42420 for the Wild Card (why they've practically turned to stone).
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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  3. #32
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by macro View Post
    You're right, no one stretch is any more important than any other, but I think the last one (the West Coast one) will be the one that sticks out in my mind for years to come because of the point in the season when it occurred.

    The Reds were tied for first and 2 or 2.5 ahead in the Wild Card (I think) after the first game of the trip and came home something like 4 or 5 games out of first and way down the Wild Card list. The effects of this stretch were felt in the standings in a very dramatic way, and they went from a team on a roll toward the postseason to a team struggling to stay alive in a matter of only nine days.

    Technically, this stretch was no more harmful than any other losing streak, but it won't be perceived that way by many or most.
    http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...609150453/1071

    It has been that way daily since Aug. 24. That was the night the Reds beat the San Francisco Giants 6-3 to move within .0004 percentage points of the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central, and push their lead to 1 games in the wild card.

    They are 5-13 since. They're now 5 games behind the Cards and have had four teams pass them in the wild-card race.

    What happened?

    The short answer: They stopped hitting.

    They've averaged 3.1 runs a game. In the 128 games before this stretch, the Reds were averaging 5.0 runs per game.

    Thursday was typical. The Reds loaded the bases in the first with one out and got nothing out of it. Edwin Encarnacion, their best hitter with runners in scoring position, grounded into a double play.

    "I really thought we might break it open there," Reds manager Jerry Narron said.

    The Reds went 1-2-3 in the next four innings, but it was still a 0-0 ballgame.

    But Harang gave up four in the sixth. One of the runs scored on a bases-loaded walk to the pitcher.

    The Reds rallied for two in the bottom of the inning. They got the tying runs on base but couldn't come up with one more big hit.

    All that was left was a 1-2-3 eighth and ninth.

    "We've put too much pressure on ourselves," Hatteberg said, "and we've paid the consequences."

    Hatteberg and infielder Rich Aurilia, two players who have been through pennant races before, said that little things have cost the Reds big-time in the September swoon.

    "It's little things - not getting an out on bunts, not turning double plays, little things to win close ball games," Hatteberg said. "We haven't been able to that consistently."

    Said Aurilia: "It comes down to a lot of things. Not scoring runs. It's comes down to walks, errors. It comes down to everything. I think (the run production) is more magnified because we're looked at as more of an offensive club."

  4. #33
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    Re: REDS Chances

    impossible, if anyone is holding out hope, good for you, but i am simply disgusted w/ the reds (especially Junior, he should be back playing already) the reds don't need to blame pitching, true they did allow 14 runs the last two games, but the reds scored 2!! we have no offense and no pitching, we are much worse off than we were before, when we had kearns/lopez, that trade destroyed us, bill bray has been the equivalent of a rheal cormier, and he was had for a bag of balls...for the price we paid we should have gotten their closer and livan hernandez, and not royce clayton!!

  5. #34
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by macro View Post
    You're right, no one stretch is any more important than any other, but I think the last one (the West Coast one) will be the one that sticks out in my mind for years to come because of the point in the season when it occurred.

    The Reds were tied for first and 2 or 2.5 ahead in the Wild Card (I think) after the first game of the trip and came home something like 4 or 5 games out of first and way down the Wild Card list. The effects of this stretch were felt in the standings in a very dramatic way, and they went from a team on a roll toward the postseason to a team struggling to stay alive in a matter of only nine days.
    I can see why people would feel that there was some added significance to that series, but the Reds were a team living on borrowed time all season long. Their luck just happened to run out on the west coast.

    Quote Originally Posted by macro
    Technically, this stretch was no more harmful than any other losing streak, but it won't be perceived that way by many or most.
    I hope your wrong or else it's going to be a very long winter on RedsZone.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  6. #35
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It's now dropped to 3.46853 for the division and 2.03104 for the Wild Card. PECOTA-adjusted it's 3.59142 for the division and 1.89284 for the Wild Card. ELO-adjusted it's 2.24986 for the division and 1.42420 for the Wild Card (why they've practically turned to stone).
    Can't get that song out of my head now.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  7. #36
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: REDS Chances

    What do you suppose the Reds' record would be if they had only half their blown saves?

  8. #37
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    What do you suppose the Reds' record would be if they had only half their blown saves?
    I'm guessing better.
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thats the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

  9. #38
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11 View Post
    I'm guessing better.
    23 games over .500 and comfortably ahead of the Cardinals. The Reds aren't that far away, they just need to stop blowing saves.

  10. #39
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    23 games over .500 and comfortably ahead of the Cardinals. The Reds aren't that far away, they just need to stop blowing saves.
    Picking nits here, but does that include games in which the Reds still won despite blowing the save?
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  11. #40
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2 View Post
    Picking nits here, but does that include games in which the Reds still won despite blowing the save?
    You're right, but if there were as many as 10 games like that, the Reds would 13 games over .500.

  12. #41
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    You're right, but if there were as many as 10 games like that, the Reds would 13 games over .500.
    Yea', I was thinking that and any games with multiple blown saves too, but it doesn't diminish your point in the least. A better bullpen would have helped the Reds this season. But better and healthy rotation would have helped the bullpen too.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  13. #42
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    By my count there have been 18 games this year in which the REDS were charged w/ a blown save. The REDS were 9-9 in those games. Win those 9 lost games and the record would be 82-66.

    I am curious to know the same information for the Cardinals or the MLB average for all teams. It is probably the fairest way to figure whether it was "crucial or not".
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  14. #43
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    Re: REDS Chances

    The Reds are merely rope-a-doping the competition. Prepare for their haymaker.

  15. #44
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    For those who like to dwell on slim chances, here's another calculation:

    Odds of REDS catching CARDS and Houston for AT least a 3 way tie
    Games Remaining:

    CARDS: 8
    ASTROS: 8
    REDS: 7

    p = 0.5 (all cases)


    Cards Lose 8 p=0.39%
    Reds win 4 or more p =50.0%
    Hou wins 3 or less p = 36.44%
    Combined probability = 0.07%

    Cards Lose 7 p = 3.13%
    Astros win 4 or less = 63.67%
    Reds win 5 or more =22.6%
    Combined probablity = 0.45%

    Cards Lose 6 p=10.9%
    Astros win 5 or less = 85.55%
    Reds win 6 or more = 6.25%
    Combined probability = 0.58%

    Cards lose 5 p=21.8%
    Astros win 6 or less p = 96.5%
    Reds win 7 p = 0.78%
    Combined probability = 0.16%

    Total combined probability: 1.27%

    So, yeah...there is a chance.
    (just not a good one).
    Last edited by oneupper; 09-25-2006 at 09:53 AM.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

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  16. #45
    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Re: REDS Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    For those who like to dwell on slim chances, here's another calculation:

    Odds of REDS catching CARDS and Houston for AT least a 3 way tie
    Games Remaining:

    CARDS: 8
    ASTROS: 8
    REDS: 7

    p = 0.5 (all cases)


    Cards Lose 8 p=0.39%
    Reds win 4 or more p =50.0%
    Hou wins 3 or less p = 36.44%
    Combined probability = 0.07%

    Cards Lose 7 p = 3.13%
    Astros win 4 or less = 63.67%
    Reds win 5 or more =22.6%
    Combined probablity = 0.45%

    Cards Lose 6 p=10.9%
    Astros win 5 or less = 85.55%
    Reds win 6 or more = 6.25%
    Combined probability = 0.58%

    Cards lose 5 p=21.8%
    Astros win 6 or less p = 96.5%
    Reds win 7 p = 0.78%
    Combined probability = 0.16%

    Total combined probability: 1.27%

    So, yeah...there is a chance.
    (just not a good one).
    thanks, nice to know its still poissible!!
    redsrule2500
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