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Thread: 9/12/06 - Reds vs. Padres Game Thread

  1. #631
    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
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    Re: 9/12/06 - Reds vs. Padres Game Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    Interestingly enough, LaRue and Ross share a birthday, March 19. On Opening Day 2007, David Ross will be 30, and LaRue will be 33.

    I agree with your assessment of LaRue; I think his game peaked, at least offensively, last year.

    30 is very middle-aged for a catcher. Neither of them are spring chickens. I think Ross has more power than LaRue, but that's about it. LaRue is also better defensively. Also this: Ross has hit just .204 since the All Star break. NL pitchers are starting to figure him out.

    Me? I'd deal Ross in the offseason for pitching, if you can get something decent for him. I think he's also seen his highwater mark.
    If were a matter of him being figured out, wouldn't it have happened long ago? Ross is an NL player. Always has been. Remember Ross is coming off a mid-season injury too.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

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  3. #632
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: 9/12/06 - Reds vs. Padres Game Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    If were a matter of him being figured out, wouldn't it have happened long ago? Ross is an NL player. Always has been. Remember Ross is coming off a mid-season injury too.
    And I'll give Ross the benefit of the doubt on the injury.

    As far as figuring him out, this is the most Ross has ever played; it's the most exposure NL pitchers have had to him. His career #'s: 233/.312/.470/.782, and that's including this year, which everyone admits has been an aberration, as compared to his past.

    The only year he played nearly this much was 2004 with LA: .170/.253/.291/.544.

    I hope Ross turns out to be the player it looked like he was prior to the ASG; but I have many doubts about that. If we go into next year with Ross/Valentin as the catchers, it could be a long year for Reds receivers. I don't think LaRue is the long term answer, either.

    I'd like to see a younger guy thrown into the mix, but I have not heard of any catching prospects on the AA or AAA level.

  4. #633
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: 9/12/06 - Reds vs. Padres Game Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    What irked me is that EdE's steal of 3rd was ignored. Without the steal, no tie ballgame. They were right to credit Phillips' speed in beating the relay throw, but to completely ignore the steal was a huge analytical oversight.
    Great point. If the Reds do end up winning the WC, that Sb might go down as the turning point in the season. I think without that SB the Reds fail to score in the inning, and then they get Hoffman (who's as automatic as it gets). It was a risky move by EE and it payed off. With Peavy pitching tonight, yesterday's game was an absolute must, and that EE SB was the biggest difference to me.

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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: 9/12/06 - Reds vs. Padres Game Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds View Post
    Just an observation from the last night's game. But when the Reds tied the game on Phillips fielders choice, the announcers went on about BP's hustle, and rightly so.

    But there was no mention of Dunn taking out the second baseman. He was motoring to second and I was surprised that he was able to get so close to second. He got a great jump and did his part to break up the DP.

    He takes a lot of criticism for "not caring" but I was surprised the Reds announcers totally overlooked his hustle on that play.
    I think the "hustle" aspect of the play was overemphasized on all accounts. It was a chopper that probably only doubles up a below average runner. Phillips did show the enthusiasm, which apparently is important, but why give out a bunch of accolades for guys doing their jobs, which is all that play was. Run hard to first, slide hard into second on a DP ball, hit a fat pitch out of the park...

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    Re: 9/12/06 - Reds vs. Padres Game Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    I think the "hustle" aspect of the play was overemphasized on all accounts. It was a chopper that probably only doubles up a below average runner. Phillips did show the enthusiasm, which apparently is important, but why give out a bunch of accolades for guys doing their jobs, which is all that play was. Run hard to first, slide hard into second on a DP ball, hit a fat pitch out of the park...
    If announcers are going to go out of the way to point out a guys shortcomings on a consistent basis, then they should at least point out when the same guy does the job in a key moment in the ballgame. If Freel did it, they'd have stopped the game for an on-field ceremony in his honor.

    I wasn't looking for Dunn to get a medal. But the analyst breaking down the play should point out that a 6-6, 280 lb. player barrelling down and flipping the 2nd baseman (or SS, I can't remember) probably played a role in the Reds scoring the tying run.

  7. #636
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: 9/12/06 - Reds vs. Padres Game Thread

    My 8 year old son asked me this summer, "Daddy why do people cheer so much when we make routine plays? We're just doing what we're supposed to be doing."
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
    Fame is man given: be thankful.
    Conceit is self given: be careful.

    John Wooden

  8. #637
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    Re: 9/12/06 - Reds vs. Padres Game Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds View Post
    Just an observation from the last night's game. But when the Reds tied the game on Phillips fielders choice, the announcers went on about BP's hustle, and rightly so.

    But there was no mention of Dunn taking out the second baseman. He was motoring to second and I was surprised that he was able to get so close to second. He got a great jump and did his part to break up the DP.

    He takes a lot of criticism for "not caring" but I was surprised the Reds announcers totally overlooked his hustle on that play.
    I was watching that with a close eye. Your point is well taken.
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

  9. #638
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: 9/12/06 - Reds vs. Padres Game Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds View Post
    If announcers are going to go out of the way to point out a guys shortcomings on a consistent basis, then they should at least point out when the same guy does the job in a key moment in the ballgame. If Freel did it, they'd have stopped the game for an on-field ceremony in his honor.

    I wasn't looking for Dunn to get a medal. But the analyst breaking down the play should point out that a 6-6, 280 lb. player barrelling down and flipping the 2nd baseman (or SS, I can't remember) probably played a role in the Reds scoring the tying run.
    The ball was hit slow, the throw was made quickly and on target. I'm not sure how Dunn had anything to do with that. I'm even less sure why its important.

  10. #639
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    Re: 9/12/06 - Reds vs. Padres Game Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    The ball was hit slow, the throw was made quickly and on target. I'm not sure how Dunn had anything to do with that. I'm even less sure why its important.
    I've already typed out twice why I thought it was worthy of mention. If you disagree...that's fine.

  11. #640
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    Re: 9/12/06 - Reds vs. Padres Game Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    Regarding David Ross ...

    People need to be aware of Ross' post All-Star break splits, and they need to make sure they're not seeing a mirage based on a guy starting off hot, then fading down. When a guy starts off very hot and cools down, there's a perception that he was always playing well, ala David Ross right now. Compare that to a guy who starts ice cold and then slowly picks it up, and there's a perception that he's rarely playing well. Really, it's the perception based off the combined season stats.

    What do I mean by this?

    .204/.327/.495

    Those are David Ross' numbers since the All-Star break. Now an .822 OPS is still very solid for a catcher, but it's been continually going down (sub .550 OPS in September). People have to ask themselves if Ross posted those numbers during the first half of the season, would they be jumping up and down for him to be the every day catcher? Perhaps not.

    Jason LaRue has had an absolutely miserable season, but people need to look at a few factors here that haven't already been stated ...

    2004 BB% = 6.3 percent
    2005 BB% = 10.2 percent
    2006 BB% = 12.7 percent

    2004 K% = 27.7 percent
    2005 K% = 28.0 percent
    2006 K% = 26.4 percent

    2004 LD% = 19.7 percent
    2005 LD% = 22.5 percent
    2006 LD% = 20.6 percent

    2004 GB% = 42.3 percent
    2005 GB% = 41.2 percent
    2006 GB% = 42.0 percent

    2004 FB% = 38.0 percent
    2005 FB% = 36.3 percent
    2006 FB% = 37.4 percent

    2004 BABIP = .313
    2005 BABIP = .325
    2006 BABIP = .202

    Notice the similarities (or in BB%, an actual improvement) in LaRue's 2004-2006 numbers in every category ... except one. LaRue's BABIP is over 100 points lower this season than each of his 2004 and 2005 seasons.

    What's important here is prediction for future performance. Has Jason LaRue just been so incredibly unlucky in 2006, or has he actually declined? What about David Ross? Is he the real deal, a guy likely to continue hitting very well for backstop, or was his first half of the 2006 season so good that it hides who he really is and who he'll really be in 2007?

    Krivsky and the Reds really need to figure this out, because I do not believe the three-headed monster behind the plate will be what we see in 2007. Of course, I didn't think we'd be seeing it all year in 2006 so I could be wrong, but I have a feeling that Krivsky is going to ultimately decide between Jason LaRue and David Ross. Whoever he decides could have an important impact on the shape of this team next season.

    Let's hope he chooses the right guy.
    Good numbers Cyclone.

    Ross is stinky in September, but a couple dingers straightens that OPS right out.

    I keep trying to find big fault in the guy, but not having a full month OPSing under .900 is really crazy. His average dipped to .222 in August, but still managed to have a .367 OBP.

    Ross isn't LaRue behind the dish, but his numbers are still pretty good....except for a few goofy errors.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  12. #641
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    Re: 9/12/06 - Reds vs. Padres Game Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    I'm not convinced this is a career year for Ross--he's a young player. And I think I can comfortably predict we've seen the top of Larue's game.
    Yeah, well, you just called Ross (who'll be 30 when next season starts) "young". And I think you're compelled to "comfortably predict" pretty much anything you want about a player you've never liked despite what key indicators actually tell us.

    I heard the same stuff after Valentin's career year last season.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams


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