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Thread: Complete this trade idea..

  1. #16
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Complete this trade idea..

    Quote Originally Posted by Natty Redlocks View Post
    It's not just September, though. I just checked: his lifetime August OPS is .820 -- pretty ordinary for your best hitter. And Sept. has now dropped to .748, which means that for the last two months of the season, his entire career, the OPS is well below .800. That's not a tiny sample size. It's roughly a third of his at-bats, arguably the most important third, with pennant races going on and theoretically playoff games ahead. If the Reds ever make the playoffs, do you want it to be with your "franchise player" in a free fall since July?

    I really really do understand the value of Dunn. I love his patience. He does his part to make pitchers work. He's an imposing presence in the lineup. He gets on base and scores a lot. He drives in more runs than anyone else on the team. He's really young and may get way better. He's better defensively than most people give him credit for.

    But he's going to get very expensive very soon. The time is coming to decide whether he's your guy to build your offense around or not. If so, bat him third and leave him there. If not, start exploring what you can get for him. This offseason would be a good time for that.

    Good post and nice discussion. I'm not against trading him. It just needs to be for a lot. A whole lot. A couple of sure things to fill holes and a couple of top prospects that project well. They need to be reasonably priced so their will be money available to go get a middle of the order stud. I don't see getting all that and can't see how you can improve the team by trading him without getting that.

    Since you have these stats, how much is influenced by this year? Were the numbers better w/o 2006? The Reds have ridden Dunn hard in his career. Most years by August he's one of the few guys still healthy. He plays everyday with dings and aches and bruises while trying to hold some level of threat in the offense. Meanwhile others on his team have been out with more serious injuries. This season Dunn seems to have expanded his zone somewhat in the second half. I suspect (based purely on my own assumptions) that he is trying too hard. Getting himself out by trying to hit the big HR on pitches he should be taking. I wonder if this has been the case in past years when he was the last threat left standing.

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  3. #17
    Recovering Cubs Fan
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    Re: Complete this trade idea..

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Good post and nice discussion. I'm not against trading him. It just needs to be for a lot. A whole lot. A couple of sure things to fill holes and a couple of top prospects that project well. They need to be reasonably priced so their will be money available to go get a middle of the order stud. I don't see getting all that and can't see how you can improve the team by trading him without getting that.

    Since you have these stats, how much is influenced by this year? Were the numbers better w/o 2006? The Reds have ridden Dunn hard in his career. Most years by August he's one of the few guys still healthy. He plays everyday with dings and aches and bruises while trying to hold some level of threat in the offense. Meanwhile others on his team have been out with more serious injuries. This season Dunn seems to have expanded his zone somewhat in the second half. I suspect (based purely on my own assumptions) that he is trying too hard. Getting himself out by trying to hit the big HR on pitches he should be taking. I wonder if this has been the case in past years when he was the last threat left standing.
    Thanks. I don't have the exact numbers without this year, but I started looking at his monthly splits early in the season and noticed the dropoff in August followed by horrible (for him) Sept. numbers. I hoped it was because they were never in contention before and this year would be different. So far, it's been worse than usual. It definitely looks like a pattern to me, and a very disturbing pattern for a guy you want to build your offense around. I know everyone is struggling right now and Jr. is hurt (big surprise), but Dunn is the guy who should be stepping up. I don't believe for a second that he's lazy or not trying; I just think he can't, and that's bad. I agree they do ride him hard, and maybe some more days off earlier in the year would help, but I've never really bought into that.

    I share your concern that he'll be gone in some horrible trade for something like Adam Everett and Chad Qualls. I agree they need to get plenty for him, and agree that he probably won't return anywhere near what people want or expect. But he's a bargain at 10 million; after next year, he becomes much less of a bargain (13.5 I think?) If they're going to pay him like a franchise player, he needs to start acting like one; that's all I'm really saying. Here's hoping EE turns into Miguel Cabrera next year.


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