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Thread: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

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    Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

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    Tame in wild-card stretch
    Overachieving club runs out of steam in must-win series


    BY PAUL DAUGHERTY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER

    Say goodbye to pennant fever, such as it was. Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig's creation of the wild-card playoff berths might be a great idea in some places, but in Cincinnati it has produced more yawns than 3 a.m. Exactly 16,957 somnambulant souls watched the Reds bow out of realistic postseason consideration Thursday afternoon. Their 4-2 loss to the San Diego Padres left the Reds dead men walking.

    And we do mean walking. By the time the eighth inning lazed around, Cincinnati's position players had eased to their spots with an economy of movement best timed by a sundial. Water moves faster uphill. The only thing swift about the Reds on Thursday was the speed with which they closed their own casket - their game took just 2 hours, 32 minutes to play.

    After losing two of three in a series they had to sweep, the Reds are 4Ĺ games out of the wild-card lead, same as they were 10 days and seven games ago. They have 16 games to play. Some teams could overcome that gap; not this one. The Reds would have a better chance of beating the Bengals on Sunday.

    Those who feast on Jerry Narron's in-game strategy bones would be wise to recall this: The Reds manager is working without a closer and a cleanup hitter. He's got a DH playing left field, a first baseman playing third base, a first baseman playing shortstop and a part-time catcher hitting .187. His best run producer has four RBI in the last 20 games. His leadoff hitter is playing on heart and memory. Adam Dunn and Ryan Freel seem to be in need of hammocks and soft breezes.

    The fact is, the Reds entertained us at least a month longer than we guessed they might when the season began. The second fact is, they have a lot of work to do between now and April, even to be as average as they've been this year. It's funny how a few bad weeks can color perceptions. On Aug. 22, at 66-60, the Reds looked poised for a September run. Twenty-three days later, losers of 14 of 20, they look outmanned, out of energy and out to lunch. This team wouldn't win 70 times next year.

    The Reds need a closer, a shortstop and an everyday outfielder or two.

    They need to solve the problem of Jason LaRue.

    They need to convince Ken Griffey Jr. that a corner outfield spot is not a demotion.

    They need to deal Adam Dunn and hope they can get value. The home run-hitting left fielder who walks to his position could be available. Trading Dunn is an obvious solution, but his high salary - $10.5 million next year - and his future as a DH might make that difficult.

    Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky wasn't in a chatty mood Thursday when the subject of next year arose. He didn't want to talk about the future in the fading light of the present, other than to say organizational meetings are in October. That's the baseball version of "I'll have to look at the film." You don't need a meeting or videotape to tell this team is miles from playing in October.

    The Reds will trade for a closer, or buy one with some of the roughly $20 million they'll pick up from added local TV money and the trades of arbitration eligibles Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns. They could move Brandon Phillips to short and hope Rich Aurilia, at 35, can play 135 games at second base. They'll try to deal LaRue, who has been a backup this year, but will have to eat some of the $5.2 million he's set to make next year. They'll need a fourth outfielder who can play defense. They'll need a lot of people who can play defense.

    What this mostly pleasant summer has done is raise expectations unreasonably. Baseball isn't football. Teams do not change who they are overnight. Krivsky's Reds are still in large measure Dan O'Brien's Reds. And Jim Bowden's. With the trade of Wily Mo Pena for Bronson Arroyo and the acquisition of Phillips - not to mention the on-the-fly reinvention of the bullpen - we can see Krivsky wanting a faster club with better pitching and fielding. The current version too often has lots of homers and not much else.

    It will take time. Meanwhile, take it easy on the current club. It surpassed expectations. Until now.

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  3. #2
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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    Not a bad read of the current situation IMO...
    "Booing on opening day is like telling grandma her house smells like old lady."--WOY

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    This team wouldn't win 70 times next year.
    Sadly, he's right... in some ways I feel like we're right back where we started.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    Baseball isn't football.
    Smartest thing written in the whole thing.

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    some of the roughly $20 million they'll pick up from added local TV money
    This gives me more hope than anything. Let's hope Cast puts his money where his mouth is.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    I did a quick layout a few weeks ago on here about how much money we would have from players leaving and i thought it was around 20 million to spend. Maybe a little less. This weekend if noone has come up with something ill sit down and try and figure out how much money we will be saving on players not returning and things like that.

    A conservative guess would be around 15 million off the top of my head. That is without dealing LaRue or Dunn (Milton is going nowhere). So if im right we could have upwards of 35 million to spend next year including the TV deal. That is without an increase in overall payroll. I could be way off but if anyone has has already looked into this let me know.

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    He's got a DH playing left field
    Same DH that made an assist on a runner at third.

    a first baseman playing third base
    What? I'm assuming Daugherty would have said the Reds had a left fielder playing shortstop during Larkin's first season.

    His leadoff hitter is playing on heart and memory
    While a cute turn of words, what does this even mean? Freel has shown plenty of skill and energy over the past month, including his 36th steal yesterday.


    This team wouldn't win 70 times next year
    Why?

    The home run-hitting left fielder who walks to his position could be available.
    Ahhh yes....the ole walks-to-his-position complaint. That's rich. Maybe that's why he thinks the Reds won't win 70 games next year.

    Lazy piece if you ask me...but about what I've come to expect. Just string the words together and hope nobody's actually paying attention.

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    Sad but true. Was hard to read that and realize it was right on.
    Let's play two!!!

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    I thought the article was insightful, though I do think EE will get better at 3rd
    Last edited by Wheelhouse; 09-15-2006 at 11:59 AM.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    Quote Originally Posted by BrooklynRedz View Post
    While a cute turn of words, what does this even mean? Freel has shown plenty of skill and energy over the past month, including his 36th steal yesterday.
    .601 OPS in the past 30 days. Ugh.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    Beat the Bengals? Whatever.
    "Some of the guys who pitched well for us last year aren't going to make the ballclub," Narron said.

    Pete Rose, when asked by David Letterman who he likes in the MLB playoffs:

    "You sound like you're betting on baseball."

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    Quote Originally Posted by dabvu2498 View Post
    .601 OPS in the past 30 days. Ugh.
    Right, but why single him out? There's been no shortage of slumpers in this lineup over the last 30 days and yet, because it's Ryan "Wallbuster" Freel, his slump is due to all that effort and all those great catches? It's called a slump and no player in the history of the game has ever been immune.

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    Edwin is the next Gold Glover is turning into the ORG version of Dunn strikes out too much.

    Say it enough and eventually it becomes true.

    Many have brought up Barry Larkin and Mike Schmidt as guys who made errors early in their career, but turned out to be gold glovers.
    I think it's a fair point, however if I recall correctly Cyclone did a search earlier this summer which showed the cut off point was about 30 errors.

    As in, anything under 30 errors and the player was likely to grow out of it.
    But at 30 errors or more, there were more significant defensive issues.

    Cyclone, I apologize if it was not you, I did a search on Edwin Encarnacion and Errors, and found multiple multiples of hits. I added Cyclone to the mix and got bupkis..

    Anyway. For comparisons sake.

    Schmidt, 1974 season, 26 errors in 162 games.
    Larkin, 1987 season, 29 errors in 148 games.

    Edwin, 2006 season, 23 errors in 98 games. That works out to be 38 errors in a full season.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
    ---Joe Posnanski

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    Quote Originally Posted by BrooklynRedz View Post
    Ahhh yes....the ole walks-to-his-position complaint. That's rich. Maybe that's why he thinks the Reds won't win 70 games next year.
    What do you mean? Your statement here is a little thin. Daugherty is probably one of the five people in the universe not coaching or managing the team that is most familiar with his work habits. Sees him play every day, in the clubhouse every day, warming up every day, in BP every day. Who else would be better qualified to make a comment about Dunn's effort? I think you need to make your statement a little more "rich" as you put it, because it's vague right now.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

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    Re: Daugherty's take on the Reds & offseason moves

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    What do you mean? Your statement here is a little thin. Daugherty is probably one of the five people in the universe not coaching or managing the team that is most familiar with his work habits. Sees him play every day, in the clubhouse every day, warming up every day, in BP every day. Who else would be better qualified to make a comment about Dunn's effort? I think you need to make your statement a little more "rich" as you put it, because it's vague right now.
    Newsflash... Paul ain't a beat writer, doesn't travel with the team and likely doesn't sit in the pressbox much of the season either. He probably writes more about the Bengals in a year then the Reds.


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