Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

[Bip Roberts]

Go Drew Stubbs!

I am done with this.

[edabbs44]

Why would Drew need to put up Upton numbers to not be a bust? Everyone knows that his ceiling with the bat isn't near Justin Upton's. I think if Drew Stubbs could put together another 07 at a higher level we will be laughing at this "bust" talk. I can't believe he was written off already anyway, laughable considering he still was getting on base and playing superior defense. That alone has value at his position. A "bust" has no value.

I really said nothing resembling what you think you are responding to.

Didn't say he was a bust. Said he has disappointed and is "busting."

Didn't say he needs to put up Upton like numbers. Said it wasn't right to compare the first years of the two, since Upton was a lot younger when he came into the pros.

Good defense and getting on base is fine, but not the only things you look for from a top 10 pick. If Homer ends up as a solid middle reliever, would you consider him a bust? What if Bruce ends up as a plus defender and good OB skills, but that's it? Still happy there, even when those are guys who provide "value"?

[camisadelgolf]

I don't think the Reds drafted Drew Stubbs for the sole purpose of expecting a great minor league career. Actually, I'd even wager that the Reds don't care if Stubbs puts up a .150/.200/.250 line in the minor leagues so long as he performs at the Major League level.

If Drew Stubbs doesn't have a career worthy of his paycheck (which should come to a little more than $3MM for at least the first seven years of his professional career or so), then he will have been a bust. Just because he was the eighth player drafted doesn't mean he is expected to be the eight-best player from the draft--it just means that the Reds wanted to add him to the organization before any of the other available players who most likely would have been drafted before the Reds' next pick.

However, if he had signed for, say, $30MM, then I would already jump to the conclusion that he has been a bust because I am extremely doubtful that he will have put up numbers to justify that much money being spent on him before he's eligible for arbitration or free agency. It's not too soon to say he will or will not be a bust, but it is too soon to say he is a bust.

[edabbs44]

I don't think the Reds drafted Drew Stubbs for the sole purpose of expecting a great minor league career. Actually, I'd even wager that the Reds don't care if Stubbs puts up a .150/.200/.250 line in the minor leagues so long as he performs at the Major League level.

That is a really weird statement. If he hit .150/.200/.250 in the minors, it would be really tough for him to stick with the organization long enough to get the chance to perform at the major league level.

If Drew Stubbs doesn't have a career worthy of his paycheck (which should come to a little more than $3MM for at least the first seven years of his professional career or so), then he will have been a bust. Just because he was the eighth player drafted doesn't mean he is expected to be the eight-best player from the draft--it just means that the Reds wanted to add him to the organization before any of the other available players who most likely would have been drafted before the Reds' next pick.

You are right, the Reds selecting him 8th does not mean they thought he would be the 8th best player from the draft. It means they thought he would be the best player in the draft not yet selected at that time.

However, if he had signed for, say, $30MM, then I would already jump to the conclusion that he has been a bust because I am extremely doubtful that he will have put up numbers to justify that much money being spent on him before he's eligible for arbitration or free agency. It's not too soon to say he will or will not be a bust, but it is too soon to say he is a bust.

Agreed, he isn't a bust yet. But he is currently on Lackluster Lane, which connects to the Boulevard of Broken Dreams.

[TRF]

Stubbs defense alone seperates him from being BJ Szymanski. His speed on the basepaths is negated by a total lack of base stealing prowess. He does almost as much harm as good after reaching 1B.

While he has a decent OBP, it isn't special in any way, especially for low A ball.

Drew Stubbs is at the first crossroads of his career. He will likely do one of the following:

1. Continue where he left off at the end of 2007. He really had a very good (not great) second half. But his history suggests that even if he OPS's north of .800, I doubt the Reds promote him to AA. He'll have to approach .900, a number that doug, during the 2006 season tossed around alot.
2. He'll OPS around .775 again He'll be reckless on the basepaths and his SB% will hover around 60%

#2 is more likely than #1, though everyone on this board is rooting for #1. yes doug, we all want Stubbs to succeed. Your problem is you want to excuse the extremely poor job the Reds FO did on scouting the guy. You want to ignore results and concentrate on potential. You'll overvalue Stubbs and undervalue Maloney, because your projection of Maloney is #5 starter. never mind that all Maloney has done is succeed in his career, while all Stubbs has done is disappoint.

But pitchers and batters are apples and oranges. want to bet on the Reds 1st rd pick vs the Reds 32nd rd pick making the major leagues first? Or even having the better career?

And timeline has EVERYTHING to do with it. a 1st rd, top 10 COLLEGE bat should be in the major leagues within 2-3 years. Stubbs will take 5-6, and that's longer than some HS picks.
Some are unwilling to say bust at this point, but rather he's dangling on the precipice. Perhaps. My opinion is the FO was a bust when they made the selection, and I think they regret it.

[Highlifeman21]

Dead weight? That's not just over dramatic, it's wrong. I hope the Reds challenge Drew and if he moves up to Chattanooga fast and if continues to get on base and play superior defense he has great value. They should have moved him harder last year.

Or they should have capitalized on his perceived value and included him in a package to land a better arm than we currently have in-house.

There's still opportunity for that move to happen, but I have a feeling Stubbs' value is at an all-time low since being drafted, and I'd like to think his value has nowhere to go but up, but that's largely dependent on him picking up where he left off in the end of 2007.

I don't remember anyone that liked the Drew Stubbs selection at the time, and it's proved to have been historically bad. Like I previously said, I root for the kid to improve b/c he's a Red, but I'm not going to hold my breath that it happens.

[edabbs44]

Or they should have capitalized on his perceived value and included him in a package to land a better arm than we currently have in-house.

There's still opportunity for that move to happen, but I have a feeling Stubbs' value is at an all-time low since being drafted, and I'd like to think his value has nowhere to go but up, but that's largely dependent on him picking up where he left off in the end of 2007.

I don't remember anyone that liked the Drew Stubbs selection at the time, and it's proved to have been historically bad. Like I previously said, I root for the kid to improve b/c he's a Red, but I'm not going to hold my breath that it happens.

To be fair, Stubbs has only been eligible to be traded since June 2007. His stock was at an all-time low at that point and has only gotten better since then.

[Highlifeman21]

To be fair, Stubbs has only been eligible to be traded since June 2007. His stock was at an all-time low at that point and has only gotten better since then.

Has it actually improved, though?

I can't imagine his better 2nd half of 2007 left GMs abroad clamoring for his services.

For Drew Stubbs to right the ship, he needs to absolutely tear up AA this year, and do everything he can to get promoted to AAA. I don't see that happening, unfortunately.

[edabbs44]

Has it actually improved, though?

I can't imagine his better 2nd half of 2007 left GMs abroad clamoring for his services.

For Drew Stubbs to right the ship, he needs to absolutely tear up AA this year, and do everything he can to get promoted to AAA. I don't see that happening, unfortunately.

It has to have improved. I'm not saying that it is great right now, but look at what he was doing one calendar year from when he was drafted. I, for one, had less hope then than I do now.

At least he showed he could hit Low A pitching in the 2nd half of '07.

[cincyinco]

Your problem is you want to excuse the extremely poor job the Reds FO did on scouting the guy. You want to ignore results and concentrate on potential. You'll overvalue Stubbs and undervalue Maloney, because your projection of Maloney is #5 starter. never mind that all Maloney has done is succeed in his career, while all Stubbs has done is disappoint.

Wasn't it the same scout, a Mr. Brian Wilson I believe - who recently passed away - that recommended Stubbs? The same Mr. Brian Wilson who also gave us Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey?

I'm pretty sure it was, and Stubbs was his last recommendation from the TX region before passing away. If he saw something in the guy, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Sometimes it takes awhile for skills to translate - even for top 10 drafted college picks taken in the first round of a draft.

Your problem is you want it to be black or white, when its every other shade of gray. Its as much about projection as it is looking at a state sheet and reading the numbers. Stubbs may very well be a bust, but he's not yet. The constant bemoaning and railing of Joe Blow prospect around here is nothing but premature and yet all too typical redszone mob mentality.

[TRF]

no, there were better options on the board. the Reds were thick with OF's and QUALITY college arms were available. A college bat wasn't needed with that pick.

[dougdirt]

no, there were better options on the board. the Reds were thick with OF's and QUALITY college arms were available. A college bat wasn't needed with that pick.

A college arm wasn't needed with that pick either. The best player on the board was needed and thats likely what the Reds took according to their board. If thats how it went, then I am fine with that, regardless of the fact that it likely wasn't correct (Lincecum and Chamberlain were still on board).

[TRF]

A college arm wasn't needed with that pick either. The best player on the board was needed and thats likely what the Reds took according to their board. If thats how it went, then I am fine with that, regardless of the fact that it likely wasn't correct (Lincecum and Chamberlain were still on board).

You just made my point. Their board was flawed, and an entire messageboard full of amateurs knew it. That speaks VOLUMES.

[Highlifeman21]

A college arm wasn't needed with that pick either. The best player on the board was needed and thats likely what the Reds took according to their board. If thats how it went, then I am fine with that, regardless of the fact that it likely wasn't correct (Lincecum and Chamberlain were still on board).

You're fine with the Reds selecting Drew Stubbs under the unknown assumption that he was the best available on the board at the time?

That's pitch forks and torches material in my book. Kill the monster.



I like the logic of best available on the board, but when the logic results in Drew Stubbs, flawed is a nice label for such an outcome.

[dougdirt]

You're fine with the Reds selecting Drew Stubbs under the unknown assumption that he was the best available on the board at the time?

That's pitch forks and torches material in my book. Kill the monster.

I like the logic of best available on the board, but when the logic results in Drew Stubbs, flawed is a nice label for such an outcome.

I am all about paying my scouts to give me a draft board on players they have scouted for the past 5 months and making their suggetions. If that result beared out Drew Stubbs (who you know I was against at the time) then so be it.