Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

[jmcclain19]

First of all, where is this proven? I have seen a lot of college players struggle in their first year, and then do just fine. Secondly, I don't agree that Stubbs performance was "below average". Maybe "below expectations", but it was not that bad. See above.

Current players and their 1st year pro numbers:
1. Justin Morneau in 1999: .302 avg/.333 OBP/0 HRs: Repeated rookie ball again in 2000 and thrived.
2. David Wright in 2001: .300 avg/.391 OBP/4 HRs. Only hit .266 in A ball the next year...
3. Lastings Milledge in 2003: .231 avg/.323 OBP/0 HRs.
4. Robinson Cano in 2001: .230 avg/.330 OBP/3 HRs.
5. Ryan Howard in 2001 .272 avg/.384/6 HRs
6. Jason Bay in 2000 .304 avg/.358 OBP/2 HRs
7. Edwin Encarnacion 2000: .311 avg/.381 OBP/0 HRs
8. Joey Votto 2002: .269 avg/.342 OBP/9 HRs
9. Carlos Lee in 1994: .125 avg/.183 OBP/0 HRs
10. Carlos Beltran in 1995: .278/.332/0 HRs
11. Adam Dunn in 1998 .288/.404/4 HRs
12. Barry Bonds in 1985 .299/.383/13
13. Sammy Sosa in 1986 .275/.336/4
14. Jim Thome in 1989 .237/.314/0
15. Drew Stubbs 2006 .258./.374/8

You get the point. You just can't always predict how a guy will do based on his first year in the pros. I know several of these guys did not play college ball. I agree that home run power often comes at a later age, and that few 18 year olds have pro power.

Still, my point is that only time tells the quality of the player.

You're setting up your own strawman there.

The problem with all but four of the players you listed (Bay, Thome, Bonds, Stubbs) were either a high school player when drafted or was an undrafted free agent.

And the four
Bay - a 22nd rounder, skipped rookie ball.
Bonds - Skipped Rookie ball - then Played half a year a A ball before going to AAA.
Thome might as well be a high schooler, as he was a draft and follow who played one year of JC ball before signing. But yes, he did struggle at 19 in his first season at Rookie Ball.
Stubbs - 1st rounder with a mediocre start in Rookie Ball.

Which is the exact point I was making earlier and johngalt elaborated on.

"Polished" college bats should be ripping the cover of the ball in rookie league if they get placed in that league at all if they want to have any future. Most are deemed above that level and can move on to higher competition.

For immediate comparison, the only other college bat taken in the top ten, Evan Longoria, tore up Advanced A ball and leveled out at AA.

Just to further hammer this home. Lets look back a few years just to let some history develop. These are the top College draftable bats of the year, taken in the 1st round of that year's draft.

2002 Draft 1st Round College Bats
Drew Meyer - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started off in Low A where he OPS'd 593 - and he's been awful ever since. A career AAAA player.
Khalil Greene - Skipped Rookie Ball - Put up an OPS of 893 in High A in his first year.
Russ Adams - Skipped Rookie Ball - OPS'd 933 for Low A in his first year
Nick Swisher - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started in Low A with an OPS of 888.

2003 Draft 1st round College Bats
Rickie Weeks - Played 1 game at Rookie ball before moving to Low A to OPS 1050
Michael Aubrey - Skipped Rookie ball and went straight to Low A where he OPS'd 960.
Aaron Hill - Skipped Rookie Ball and went straight to Low A where he OPS'd 938.
Brian Anderson - Played 13 games at Rookie ball (and OPSing 1084 in 58PA) before moving on to High A and put up an OPS of 925.
Brad Snyder - Skipped Rookie Ball and went straight to Low A where he put up an OPS of 860
Conor Jackson - Skipped Rookie Ball where he moved onto High A and OPS'd 943

2004 Draft 1st round College Bats
Stephen Drew - Sat out a year, but when he came back, he skipped Rookie Ball and started at High A where he put up an OPS of 1224
Josh Fields - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started off at High A where he put up an OPS of 778
Landon Powell - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started off in Low A where he put up an OPS of 725
Richard Robnett - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started in Low A where he put up an OPS of 841

I don't think OPS is the end all be all of hitting stats, but it's a quick and dirty way to show batting eye & power.

The only players on there who started off with a 1st season OPS under 800 (like Stubbs 768) was Drew Meyer, who pretty much can't hit at any level now going on four years. Landon Powell, who was a catcher and didn't start out on fire a full level above Stubbs, and Josh Fields, who didn't play baseball full time until he was drafted, but still put up the same numbers as Stubbs two full levels above him.

The Rest, all put up better numbers, and they did it against better competition at a higher level.

Do I really need to keep going? There are reams and reams of this out there that keeps constantly pointing at the same ending.

If you don't hit in rookie ball as a college bat, your future is pretty bleak.

[dabvu2498]

The problem with all but four of the players you listed (Bay, Thome, Bonds, Stubbs) were either a high school player when drafted or was an undrafted free agent.

Ryan Howard was a college player (SW Mizzou State). His 1st pro season was in the NY-Penn League (SS-A).

[CrackerJack]

Awful draft pick. I want DanO back.

[Falls City Beer]

Awful draft pick. I want DanO back.

Double irony?

Surely you don't think Stubbs was a good draft pick.

[bradmu]

Awful draft pick. I want DanO back.

No Question about it, DanO did a great job with his drafts. I really would have liked to see him stick around the organization to be involved with scouting...I know that would never have happened, but thats where DanO belongs.


Just Curious, What did Alex Gordon do when he first signed with the Royals? I know he was a high College Bat selected recently who's one of the top prospects in baseball.

[dougdirt]

Gordon didnt play in 2005, the year he was drafted, but this season he played in AA and hit 29 home runs, had 101 RBI, 72 walks, 113 k, .325/.427/.588 as a 22 year old.

[flyer85]

Stubbs certainly still has time, the issue is that he did nothing to alleviate the concerns about his bat. He has a bunch of secondary skills but if he can't hit they won't be worth much.

They were questions about Longoria and his ability to hit for power. He quieted those concerns with his start in professional baseball.

At a minimum I think it is safe to say the Reds took Stubbs way too early in the draft. There was a lot better value available than a highly speculative pick like Stubbs.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Yes, I predict Stubbs will be a bust.

I also hope that I'm wrong and will be the first to point it out if I am.

But to answer the question, yes, at this time, I predict that the Stubbs selection will one day be considered a bust.

But drafts are a crapshoot anyway and if Valaika or one of the others pan out, it still can be a successful draft.

[OnBaseMachine]

I like the fact that he has shown some good patience this season. That's a good sign. With that kind of patience he just needs to be able to hit about .250 with 20 homer power to be an effective player once you factor in his great fielding in CF.

Mike Cameron.

And I would be very happy if Stubbs were able to produce at that type of level.

[Patrick Bateman]

Mike Cameron.

And I would be very happy if Stubbs were able to produce at that type of level.

Exactly.

[cincyinco]

If he were 19, I'd be 100% in your camp. But he's not, so I'm not.

Regardless of age FCB, a Short Season in rookie ball is a very small sample size. Its still way to early to write Stubbs off and thats the bottom line.

This is not a prediction that he will have any future success. Simply saying wait 'til next year before you proclaim Stubbs a bust.

This is about the 10th thread on this subject.. Its getting rediculous. You know, about this time last year, some were calling Homer Bailey a bust too. How's he looking now?

[jmcclain19]

This is about the 10th thread on this subject.. Its getting rediculous.

Anything worth doing, is worth doing right

[johngalt]

Mike Cameron.

And I would be very happy if Stubbs were able to produce at that type of level.

Funny to bring up Mike Cameron (definitely a good comp based on skillset IMO) because he's one of the few guys whose history gives Stubbs hopes of turning into someone useful as a Major League regular.

After being drafted out of high school, Cameron didn't hit over .250 for a full season until he repeated AA in 1996 - his sixth pro season. In fact, none of his statistics (walks, K rate, average, homers, RBIs, OPS) were even above average until then, meaning all anyone had to go on was his talent and skills and hoping they would eventually allow him to turn it on.

Something obviously clicked because in that '96 season, he hit .300/.402/.600 as a 23-year-old in the Southern League with 28 homers, 77 RBIs, and 39 steals. He still struck out over 100 times (117), but his walk total vaulted up to 71 at the same time. After a cup of coffee in September of that year, he only spent 30 games in AAA the following season before ascending to the majors for good.

Certainly, I would be ecstatic to have Stubbs turn into Cameron on the Major League level. I'd say that's probably his ceiling actually. It's just interesting when you look back to Cameron and see how rare and unique his career was in terms of early minor league production and how it related to his work in the bigs.

Again, it's difficult to compare since we're talking a high school player vs. a college player, who theoretically should be more advanced. However, I do find the potential parallel interesting.

[johngalt]

This is about the 10th thread on this subject.. Its getting rediculous. You know, about this time last year, some were calling Homer Bailey a bust too. How's he looking now?

Calling a pitcher drafted out of high school pitching his first full season in the Midwest League a bust because his numbers are skewed by a tandem pitching rotation is definitely ridiculous.

Calling a three-year college player drafted in the top 10 a potential bust based on his mediocre numbers in the Pioneer League is far from ridiculous. It's making an educated guess based on loads of previous data.

[WMR]

What sort of an arm does Drew project to have in the MLs?