Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

[Highlifeman21]

An analysis of minor league baserunning over at BP shows that Stubbs was among the worst baserunners in the minors last year



For the unintiated, the metric is in runs, meaning Stubbs cost the Dragons nearly 8 runs relative to average through his efforts stealing bases. He was average on his advancing on hits. Just one more thing for us doubters to complain about.

That's Ryan Freel-esque.

[fearofpopvol1]

I think by most accounts, we should have a much better idea on this subject by how Stubs progresses (or regresses) this season.

[Lockdwn11]

To me this is the year we will all know if he should be a player in the Reds plans or not. He is said to be healthy this year so we will soon find out who the real Drew Stubbs is.

[TRF]

Based on his draft slot and his first two seasons, he's already a bust. If, like doug, you want to base it on the very small sample of the last half of last season, then he's a future star.

But if he OPS's less than .800 this year, then he's a complete bust. Personally, I'd have moved him as soon as BA named him a Reds' top 10 prospect. His value has never been higher, and it's a huge gamble betting on him improving, when everything about the guy says if he develops at all, it will be late, probably after age 27. When he was drafted it was said he was a raw talent, this AFTER attending UT. The Big 12 is a pretty good baseball conference. He shouldn't be raw at this point, yet he is.

[dougdirt]

Based on his draft slot and his first two seasons, he's already a bust. If, like doug, you want to base it on the very small sample of the last half of last season, then he's a future star.

But if he OPS's less than .800 this year, then he's a complete bust. Personally, I'd have moved him as soon as BA named him a Reds' top 10 prospect. His value has never been higher, and it's a huge gamble betting on him improving, when everything about the guy says if he develops at all, it will be late, probably after age 27. When he was drafted it was said he was a raw talent, this AFTER attending UT. The Big 12 is a pretty good baseball conference. He shouldn't be raw at this point, yet he is.

Maybe its just me, but I consider someone a bust once its obvious they are not a major leaguer and never will be. That in no way, shape or form describes Drew Stubbs.

As far as it being a huge gable that he improves.... why?
He has a healthy foot for the first time in 2 years and actually showed signs of life that his bat is making a turn.

Also curious where this quote is coming from

when everything about the guy says if he develops at all, it will be late, probably after age 27.

[RedsManRick]

Until he's a 27 year old non-prospect, the bust label just doesn't work. Fact is that most draft picks don't live up to their potential. As far as I'm concerned, bust only works if he never makes it to the majors to stay. I think there's copious gray area between fully realizing his potential (Mike Cameron 2.0) and never getting a cup of coffee.

I don't think you can call him a bust just because he's behind schedule. The bust label only applies once it becomes clear that he'll never reach a level of performance/contribution which would justify his selection. We're years from that.

[dougdirt]

I don't think you can call him a bust just because he's behind schedule. The bust label only applies once it becomes clear that he'll never reach a level of performance/contribution which would justify his selection. We're years from that.

And even at that point, whose schedule is Stubbs behind on? The Reds or the fans? The fans schedule really doesn't matter. If Stubbs is behind the Reds schedule, then its one thing, but I really doubt he is. If he finishes 2008 still in Sarasota, I believe he will then be behind schedule according to the Reds, but not yet.

[klw]

I'm wondering if we will see a little of Stubbs in the MLB ST games like Bruce did last year.

[dougdirt]

I'm wondering if we will see a little of Stubbs in the MLB ST games like Bruce did last year.

It won't be for a little bit even if it happens because Stubbs doesn't have to report until March 5th for minor league spring training.

[RedsManRick]

And even at that point, whose schedule is Stubbs behind on? The Reds or the fans? The fans schedule really doesn't matter. If Stubbs is behind the Reds schedule, then its one thing, but I really doubt he is. If he finishes 2008 still in Sarasota, I believe he will then be behind schedule according to the Reds, but not yet.

I'm considering a standard development schedule. Rule of thumb being that if a guy isn't in the upper minors (and justifiably so) by his mid 20's, his chances of every making it are pretty darn small.

Considering that Stubbs comes from a 4 year of top level college ball, you have to wonder why he's not finding success quickly. (yes, I know injuries are part of the explanation). At this point, I can't help but see him as extremely similar to Chris Dickerson with a bit more power. I agree Doug, that hardly makes him a bust. It is what it is -- a 1st round pick who seems to be following the same path as a 16th round pick.

I don't think it's unfair for anybody to say he's been a disappointment so far, but I do think it's definitely premature to apply the bust label.

[dougdirt]

I'm considering a standard development schedule. Rule of thumb being that if a guy isn't in the upper minors (and justifiably so) by his mid 20's, his chances of every making it are pretty darn small.

Considering that Stubbs comes from a 4 year of top level college ball, you have to wonder why he's not finding success quickly. (yes, I know injuries are part of the explanation). At this point, I can't help but see him as extremely similar to Chris Dickerson with a bit more power. I agree Doug, that hardly makes him a bust. It is what it is -- a 1st round pick who seems to be following the same path as a 16th round pick.

I wasn't really questioning your development schedule, but the premise in general that he was 'behind schedule'. As for why he isn't finding success quickly, injuries are a part of it. There is also the part where he was raw and still had some learning and tweaking to do in his approach to hitting.

2008 is a big year in terms of Drew Stubbs future, but I just feel the kid is going to pass the test big time.

[RedsManRick]

I wasn't really questioning your development schedule, but the premise in general that he was 'behind schedule'.

I would argue that, right or wrong, the assumed development schedule for first round, All-American, position players from top-tier, big conference schools is shorter than for most other players.

I agree Drew needs to light up the FSL, ideally finishing the year in Chattanooga. If he doesn't, the perception will be that he's falling even further behind a schedule that puts him in the majors by age 25 or 26 -- and I'd have to agree.

[TRF]

Maybe its just me, but I consider someone a bust once its obvious they are not a major leaguer and never will be. That in no way, shape or form describes Drew Stubbs.

As far as it being a huge gable that he improves.... why?
He has a healthy foot for the first time in 2 years and actually showed signs of life that his bat is making a turn.

Also curious where this quote is coming from

He's a bust in that a top ten college stick should progress faster than he has. I never stated he won't make it, but that it could be late. He's 23 and hasn't dominated a single level. Unless he starts doing that and damn soon, he'll be a 26 year old rookie. Right now he's on schedule to be at LEAST 25 before he's being considered for a MLB job, much less a starter.

And another thing. The "raw" label that he was given just doesn't pass the sniff test. 3 years at UT, plus 2 years now as a professional. Is he still raw? Why is he raw, but other college players are not? Is "raw" code for can hit with metal bat only?

Again, I am not saying he'll never reach the majors, but based on draft slot and development so far, bust city. He can overcome that, but he heading to a pitcher's league, so we'll see.

[dougdirt]

He's a bust in that a top ten college stick should progress faster than he has. I never stated he won't make it, but that it could be late. He's 23 and hasn't dominated a single level. Unless he starts doing that and damn soon, he'll be a 26 year old rookie. Right now he's on schedule to be at LEAST 25 before he's being considered for a MLB job, much less a starter.

I don't think college has anything to do with it. If he were a high school pick he would get more leeway, but because he is a college pick he doesn't. Makes no sense to me because he wasn't drafted as a 'ready product', he was drafted as a raw athlete with great tools at the plate that needed to be honed in and great defensive tools that were already translated to baseball skills. If he were drafted as a 'ready made' guy, then it would be one thing, but he wasn't and everyone knew it. Therefore, at least in my mind, he doesn't really apply to the 'ready made' mode that a guy like Evan Longoria followed.

And another thing. The "raw" label that he was given just doesn't pass the sniff test. 3 years at UT, plus 2 years now as a professional. Is he still raw? Why is he raw, but other college players are not? Is "raw" code for can hit with metal bat only?

Sure it passes the sniff test. He has the tools (bat speed, strikezone recognition) to be a good hitter, but he is raw in the aspect of making good contact consistently with the ball. He is not as raw as he was. Other college players are raw as well, not all of them, but some of them. Sometimes 'raw' does mean can only hit with a metal bat, but I don't think that applies with Stubbs because generally those are power type hitters with huge holes in their swings. That doesn't really describe Stubbs.

Again, I am not saying he'll never reach the majors, but based on draft slot and development so far, bust city. He can overcome that, but he heading to a pitcher's league, so we'll see.

How is it possible to be a bust but to overcome it? That is pretty contradictory. Either you are or you aren't.

[cincyinco]

You think some would learn their lesson after calling Homer Bailey a bust after his first year in A ball.

I'm not even saying he's(Homer) going to be a star even now - but it was absolutely rediculous to call him a bust then.. just as its equally rediculous to call Stubbs a bust at this point in time.

Baseball is timeless in every sense of the word. There is not 1 set, clear, determined, "no deviation from the lines" path that every prospect follows. Its not the same. This is a people business. Each person is an individual, with their own timetable, and their own path of growth.

I will certainly conceed that if Stubbs doesn't improve, he's not looking good. He doesn't even look that great now. But there is certainly upside, and certainly things to like about him and certainly area's which he showed progress. Whether he continues that and blossoms, is of course, the ultimate question. But to call him a bust after he played through injuries, and showed glimpses of improvement when "choking up" and moving down in the order is absolute nonsense in my mind.