Didn't say he was a bust. Said he has disappointed and is "busting."
Didn't say he needs to put up Upton like numbers. Said it wasn't right to compare the first years of the two, since Upton was a lot younger when he came into the pros.
Good defense and getting on base is fine, but not the only things you look for from a top 10 pick. If Homer ends up as a solid middle reliever, would you consider him a bust? What if Bruce ends up as a plus defender and good OB skills, but that's it? Still happy there, even when those are guys who provide "value"?
I don't think the Reds drafted Drew Stubbs for the sole purpose of expecting a great minor league career. Actually, I'd even wager that the Reds don't care if Stubbs puts up a .150/.200/.250 line in the minor leagues so long as he performs at the Major League level.
If Drew Stubbs doesn't have a career worthy of his paycheck (which should come to a little more than $3MM for at least the first seven years of his professional career or so), then he will have been a bust. Just because he was the eighth player drafted doesn't mean he is expected to be the eight-best player from the draft--it just means that the Reds wanted to add him to the organization before any of the other available players who most likely would have been drafted before the Reds' next pick.
However, if he had signed for, say, $30MM, then I would already jump to the conclusion that he has been a bust because I am extremely doubtful that he will have put up numbers to justify that much money being spent on him before he's eligible for arbitration or free agency. It's not too soon to say he will or will not be a bust, but it is too soon to say he is a bust.
Stubbs defense alone seperates him from being BJ Szymanski. His speed on the basepaths is negated by a total lack of base stealing prowess. He does almost as much harm as good after reaching 1B.
While he has a decent OBP, it isn't special in any way, especially for low A ball.
Drew Stubbs is at the first crossroads of his career. He will likely do one of the following:
#2 is more likely than #1, though everyone on this board is rooting for #1. yes doug, we all want Stubbs to succeed. Your problem is you want to excuse the extremely poor job the Reds FO did on scouting the guy. You want to ignore results and concentrate on potential. You'll overvalue Stubbs and undervalue Maloney, because your projection of Maloney is #5 starter. never mind that all Maloney has done is succeed in his career, while all Stubbs has done is disappoint.
- Continue where he left off at the end of 2007. He really had a very good (not great) second half. But his history suggests that even if he OPS's north of .800, I doubt the Reds promote him to AA. He'll have to approach .900, a number that doug, during the 2006 season tossed around alot.
- He'll OPS around .775 again He'll be reckless on the basepaths and his SB% will hover around 60%
But pitchers and batters are apples and oranges. want to bet on the Reds 1st rd pick vs the Reds 32nd rd pick making the major leagues first? Or even having the better career?
And timeline has EVERYTHING to do with it. a 1st rd, top 10 COLLEGE bat should be in the major leagues within 2-3 years. Stubbs will take 5-6, and that's longer than some HS picks.
Some are unwilling to say bust at this point, but rather he's dangling on the precipice. Perhaps. My opinion is the FO was a bust when they made the selection, and I think they regret it.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
There's still opportunity for that move to happen, but I have a feeling Stubbs' value is at an all-time low since being drafted, and I'd like to think his value has nowhere to go but up, but that's largely dependent on him picking up where he left off in the end of 2007.
I don't remember anyone that liked the Drew Stubbs selection at the time, and it's proved to have been historically bad. Like I previously said, I root for the kid to improve b/c he's a Red, but I'm not going to hold my breath that it happens.
I can't imagine his better 2nd half of 2007 left GMs abroad clamoring for his services.
For Drew Stubbs to right the ship, he needs to absolutely tear up AA this year, and do everything he can to get promoted to AAA. I don't see that happening, unfortunately.
I'm pretty sure it was, and Stubbs was his last recommendation from the TX region before passing away. If he saw something in the guy, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
Sometimes it takes awhile for skills to translate - even for top 10 drafted college picks taken in the first round of a draft.
Your problem is you want it to be black or white, when its every other shade of gray. Its as much about projection as it is looking at a state sheet and reading the numbers. Stubbs may very well be a bust, but he's not yet. The constant bemoaning and railing of Joe Blow prospect around here is nothing but premature and yet all too typical redszone mob mentality.
"I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."
-Hunter S. Thompson
no, there were better options on the board. the Reds were thick with OF's and QUALITY college arms were available. A college bat wasn't needed with that pick.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
That's pitch forks and torches material in my book. Kill the monster.
I like the logic of best available on the board, but when the logic results in Drew Stubbs, flawed is a nice label for such an outcome.
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