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Thread: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

  1. #46
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS View Post
    What sort of an arm does Drew project to have in the MLs?
    + arm
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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  3. #47
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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    One could almost throw a certain Minnesota Twin first rounder into that mix. In Torii Hunter's first year of pro ball (rookie league) he OPS'd a slick .503. Two years later in high A ball his in over 400 plate appearances his OPS was .678. At age 22 in his second go around in AA he OPS'd .643. He didn't OPS over .800 at any level until the age of 23. Maybe that's what Wayne Krivsky sees when he looks at Drew Stubbs - another Torii Hunter.

  4. #48
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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by johngalt View Post
    Funny to bring up Mike Cameron (definitely a good comp based on skillset IMO) because he's one of the few guys whose history gives Stubbs hopes of turning into someone useful as a Major League regular.

    After being drafted out of high school, Cameron didn't hit over .250 for a full season until he repeated AA in 1996 - his sixth pro season. In fact, none of his statistics (walks, K rate, average, homers, RBIs, OPS) were even above average until then, meaning all anyone had to go on was his talent and skills and hoping they would eventually allow him to turn it on.

    Something obviously clicked because in that '96 season, he hit .300/.402/.600 as a 23-year-old in the Southern League with 28 homers, 77 RBIs, and 39 steals. He still struck out over 100 times (117), but his walk total vaulted up to 71 at the same time. After a cup of coffee in September of that year, he only spent 30 games in AAA the following season before ascending to the majors for good.

    Certainly, I would be ecstatic to have Stubbs turn into Cameron on the Major League level. I'd say that's probably his ceiling actually. It's just interesting when you look back to Cameron and see how rare and unique his career was in terms of early minor league production and how it related to his work in the bigs.

    Again, it's difficult to compare since we're talking a high school player vs. a college player, who theoretically should be more advanced. However, I do find the potential parallel interesting.
    I agree. It would be nice if Stubbs is anything close to Cameron, but if it took him 6 years, he'd be in another organization as a minor league FA before he reaches that potential.

    No thanks.

  5. #49
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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    But Cameron was a bona fide athlete, Stubbs is a hustle-to-make-it small guy who's not likely to sharpen his physical gifts much more. What you're seeing now from Stubbs is likely what you're going to get.

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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    The magic 8 ball says....ask again later.

  7. #51
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    But Cameron was a bona fide athlete, Stubbs is a hustle-to-make-it small guy who's not likely to sharpen his physical gifts much more. What you're seeing now from Stubbs is likely what you're going to get.
    6-4 200lbs. Not exactly a little guy. Stubbs can run, and throw, and has power. His stance and swing supposedly need some work. Lets see what he does next year after instructional ball.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  8. #52
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Stubbs is a hustle-to-make-it small guy
    listed at 6'5" and 190. Cameron 6'2" and 190.

    While I am not enamored with Stubbs I have never seen his athletic ability or secondary skills questioned in the least.

    The only question is will he hit?
    Last edited by flyer85; 09-21-2006 at 11:38 AM.
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  9. #53
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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    nm

  10. #54
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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    But Cameron was a bona fide athlete, Stubbs is a hustle-to-make-it small guy who's not likely to sharpen his physical gifts much more. What you're seeing now from Stubbs is likely what you're going to get.
    A four-sport athlete in high school, Stubbs said he was also recruited to play college football but was most passionate about playing baseball.

    Plus he's 6' 4"

    He must hustle greatly to achieve the above.

  11. #55
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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    6-4 200lbs. Not exactly a little guy. Stubbs can run, and throw, and has power. His stance and swing supposedly need some work. Lets see what he does next year after instructional ball.
    He has power?

    First I've heard that skill set mentioned in him. Guys can physically change after age 23, but not much.

    He sounds like Podsednik. Not Cameron, who was not only athletic but growing into his frame at the time of his breakout. The power developed and everything took off for him. If you're waiting for Stubbs's power to emerge, go ahead and wait for Godot.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 09-21-2006 at 11:43 AM.

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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    But Cameron was a bona fide athlete, Stubbs is a hustle-to-make-it small guy who's not likely to sharpen his physical gifts much more.
    Stubbs listed at Texas this year at 6'4 175 lbs. Cameron's ESPN card says 6'2 200 lbs.

    Not sure how much you've seen Stubbs play, but he's pretty fast, has good athletic instincts and appears to have more physical gifts than you're acquiting him of.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  13. #57
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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    He has power?

    First I've heard that skill set mentioned in him. Guys can physically change after age 23, but not much.
    Baseball America rated Stubbs as the best college athlete and best defensive player in this year's draft and the second fastest baserunner and third-best power hitter.

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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    Would Johnny Damon with an arm be worth a 1st round draft pick???
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  15. #59
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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    But Cameron was a bona fide athlete, Stubbs is a hustle-to-make-it small guy who's not likely to sharpen his physical gifts much more. What you're seeing now from Stubbs is likely what you're going to get.
    I am not sure where you get this from. Below is the Baseball America scouting report on Drew Stubbs. (I tried several times to post the link but failed miserably. So copy and paste it is.) But he is neither small (6'5" 190 per Milb.com) nor unathletic(see below). It may eventually turn out to be that what we are seeing is what we will get. But it looks as though there is plenty of room for improvement.

    Round Overall Team Player School State Bonus
    1 8 CIN Drew Stubbs Texas TX $2,000,000
    Stubbs was considered a borderline first-round talent coming out of high school in 2003. He would have signed with the Astros for $900,000 as a third-rounder if Major League Baseball hadn't persuaded Houston owner Drayton McLane not to exceed its bonus recommendation. Had he turned pro then, scouts wouldn't have to fret over his bat now. The best athlete in college baseball, Stubbs is a potential Gold Glove center fielder with plus raw power, plus-plus speed and an average arm. Though he has improved his approach and is using the whole field more as a junior, scouts believe his bat is far from a sure thing. He has struck out roughly once a game throughout his Longhorns career, and his contact rate hasn't improved this spring. He also hit a soft .304 with wood bats while on Team USA last summer. He still ranks second behind only Evan Longoria among position prospects in 2006. In last year's draft, which was much deeper in hitters, Stubbs would have lasted until the late first round. But with a scarcity of position players this year, he could go as high as No. 6 overall to the Tigers and probably won't get past the top 10 picks.

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    Re: Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by dabvu2498 View Post
    Would Johnny Damon with an arm be worth a 1st round draft pick???

    But that's not the question; the question is: is a Johnny Damon-ceiling (absolute ceiling) longshot worth the first pick in the first round?

    No is the answer to that question for me.


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