Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

[westofyou]

I am not sure where you get this from.

I'm betting nowhere. FCB, did you hear about Ryan Freel, big guy, all power. :

[dabvu2498]

Guys can physically change after age 23, but not much.

Good thing he's still a couple weeks away from turning 22 then, huh?

[Falls City Beer]

I am not sure where you get this from. Below is the Baseball America scouting report on Drew Stubbs. (I tried several times to post the link but failed miserably. So copy and paste it is.) But he is neither small (6'5" 190 per Milb.com) nor unathletic(see below). It may eventually turn out to be that what we are seeing is what we will get. But it looks as though there is plenty of room for improvement.

Round Overall Team Player School State Bonus
1 8 CIN Drew Stubbs Texas TX $2,000,000
Stubbs was considered a borderline first-round talent coming out of high school in 2003. He would have signed with the Astros for $900,000 as a third-rounder if Major League Baseball hadn't persuaded Houston owner Drayton McLane not to exceed its bonus recommendation. Had he turned pro then, scouts wouldn't have to fret over his bat now. The best athlete in college baseball, Stubbs is a potential Gold Glove center fielder with plus raw power, plus-plus speed and an average arm. Though he has improved his approach and is using the whole field more as a junior, scouts believe his bat is far from a sure thing. He has struck out roughly once a game throughout his Longhorns career, and his contact rate hasn't improved this spring. He also hit a soft .304 with wood bats while on Team USA last summer. He still ranks second behind only Evan Longoria among position prospects in 2006. In last year's draft, which was much deeper in hitters, Stubbs would have lasted until the late first round. But with a scarcity of position players this year, he could go as high as No. 6 overall to the Tigers and probably won't get past the top 10 picks.

The guy's a wiry 6' 5" with a dearth of wooden-bat pop. Plus, he's done virtually all of the physical maturing he's going to do. To compare Stubbs' physique and athleticism to Cameron's is a joke.

[Falls City Beer]

Good thing he's still a couple weeks away from turning 22 then, huh?

22-23...Human body's done almost all of its maturing by 21.

[westofyou]

The guy's a wiry 6' 5" with a dearth of wooden-bat pop. Plus, he's done virtually all of the physical maturing he's going to do. To compare Stubbs' physique and athleticism to Cameron's is a joke.

Your analysis of the guy started out with he was over 23, small and had no power, that's kinda funny too eh?

[Falls City Beer]

I'm betting nowhere. FCB, did you hear about Ryan Freel, big guy, all power. :

I love Freel. Not sure I'd waste my first pick on the guy.

[Patrick Bateman]

Stubbs=Podsenik?????

That's not a very good comparison.

Stubbs has immense power potential and better patience. Podsenik has no power to speak of. Podsenik is a huge basestealer. And although Stubbs is very fast, he will never be the basestealer that Podsednik is.

Stubbs has every single tool neccessary tool to be a Mike Cameron player. He's athletic enough, he has a potential gold glove winner, great arm, good patience, poor contact skills, and good power potential.

He's very raw and that's the only question with Stubbs. If everything clicks he could be a very special CF, but as many know the chances of everything clicking is poor. That's the problem with Stubbs. High risk, high reward.

[Falls City Beer]

Stubbs=Podsenik?????

That's not a very good comparison.

Stubbs has immense power potential and better patience. Podsenik has no power to speak of. Podsenik is a huge basestealer. And although Stubbs is very fast, he will never be the basestealer that Podsednik is.

Stubbs has every single tool neccessary tool to be a Mike Cameron player. He's athletic enough, he has a potential gold glove winner, great arm, good patience, poor contact skills, and good power potential.

He's very raw and that's the only question with Stubbs. If everything clicks he could be a very special CF, but as many know the chances of everything clicking is poor. That's the problem with Stubbs. High risk, high reward.

From what I understand Stubbs has aluminum-power.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

From what I understand Stubbs has aluminum-power.

Don't we all.

[redsupport]

not the epic Chad Motolla

[fearofpopvol1]

The more and more I continue to read scouting reports on Stubbs, the more I'm disappointed. Surely, given the Reds drafting spot...they could've done better.

[Az. Reds Fan]

The more and more I continue to read scouting reports on Stubbs, the more I'm disappointed. Surely, given the Reds drafting spot...they could've done better.

Yup, two words.....Tim.....Lincecum.

[TC81190]

But that's not the question; the question is: is a Johnny Damon-ceiling (absolute ceiling) longshot worth the first pick in the first round?

No is the answer to that question for me.

Maybe, but not when Roy Oswalt is on the board.

[TeamSelig]

Wow. Sounds like someone just needs to just give up and admit their defeat.

[mbgrayson]

No. 1 pick Stubbs pays visit to ballpark
By Hal McCoy

Staff Writer

Sunday, September 24, 2006

CINCINNATI — Drew Stubbs was in Great American Ball Park on Saturday, ostensibly to watch the Cincinnati Reds take batting practice, but when rain washed it away, he stood in the clubhouse talking to writers about his first professional baseball season at Billings (Mont.) in the Pioneer Rookie League.

Stubbs was the Reds' No. 1 draft pick in June out of the University of Texas, and the 21-year-old outfielder hit .252 in 56 games for a team stuffed with .300 hitters that finished first in both halves of the season.

"It was a time of adjustment for me," he said. "Coming out of college, playing three or four games a week, to playing every day. And switching from aluminum bats to wood bats, adjusting to that, that's what I took away from this season."

Stubbs, a speedy defensive outfielder, stole 19 bases, hit six homers and drove in 24 runs.

"I was able to cope with my first year of pro ball and took away a lot from that," he said. "I heard so many stories about pro ball from guys I played with in college, so I had a pretty good idea of what it would be like, and they gave me a pretty accurate description of what it was like."

Of his first year's performance, Stubbs said, "I had to adjust to the grind of playing every day. I know the first couple of weeks it was rough, and you could feel the toll being put on your body. But you could feel the adaptation as the year went on.

"Rather than going in with any statistical goals, I just went in realizing that this is just the start to my pro career and I wasn't going to make the big leagues in my first summer."

Stubbs was scheduled to leave for Sarasota, Fla., today to attend the instructional league for a month.

"I'll get more at-bats and work more on my hitting than defense," he said. "Just a time to get more experience and more at-bats."

My final word on Stubbs for now: He will do well and turn out to be a good draft pick.