Dunn Post-ASB RC/27: 5.74
Dunn Career RC/27: 6.88
Griffey Pre-ASB RC/27: 5.52
Griffey Post-ASB RC/27: 4.27
Griffey Career RC/27: 7.81
Phillips Pre-ASB RC/27: 5.95
Phillips Post-ASB RC/27: 3.96
Phillips Career RC/27: 3.91
Hatteberg Pre-ASB RC/27: 7.76
Hatteberg Post-ASB RC/27: 4.96
Hatteberg Career RC/27: 5.34
So we have two players (Phillips and Hatteberg) returning to their career norms, one player (Dunn) who just slumped, and then one player (Griffey) whose decline should be well-known and well-prepared for considering that he's nearly 37-years-old. If your offense is dependent on Ken Griffey, Jr. being a younger version of Ken Griffey, Jr., then prepare for disappointment. David Ross also fits the Phillips/Hatteberg grouping in that he returned to career norms after the All-Star Break, but you didn't mention him so I'll leave him out.
The problem for Wayne Krivsky is three out of those four post-ASB scenarios (Phillips, Hatteberg and Griffey) should not only have been well-known, but expected and accounted for as the Reds headed into the second half of the season. Of those four, only Dunn's slump can be excluded from what Krivsky should have known was very possible to happen and Krivsky gets a pass on Dunn.
What that all means is if Krivsky was correctly calculating likely scenarios, he'd have known there was a great chance to see a drop in offense due simply to certain players regressing to their career norms.
On the other side of the coin, if Krivsky was counting on career years to continue for Phillips/Hatteberg or Griffey returning to his old self, then he grossly miscalculated. This means any decision to trade away other offensive weapons outside those players who were expected to regress becomes another miscalculation for him when predicting run scoring for the final three months.
If Wayne Krivsky is attempting to reach the playoffs and making transactions in an attempt to reach the playoffs, then he needs to know how many runs his active roster should score/allow over the final three months with reasonable statistical expectations and projections. Relying on players such as Hatteberg and Phillips to continue to over-perform their projections to save offensive production is not a reasonable projection. Those types of projections are what leads to bad decisions in player transactions.
As we know, offensive weapons were dealt away, players who remained in the lineup did regress to their career norms, players who were known to be bad (Royce Clayton) were given playing time, and the combined result is a net loss of 0.70 runs per game. As I stated earlier, really only Dunn's slump is a free pass for Krivsky, and it can be argued that Aurilia's unexpected hot surge offsets Dunn's slump.
Don't get me wrong, I do not at all believe offensive run production of 5+ runs per game would have continued had we not traded away Kearns/Lopez, however, I do believe that we'd have had better offensive production than merely 4.30 runs per game. Also, with or without this trade, I do not believe this team makes the playoffs, either.
I've long said that I had no qualms at all to trading away Kearns and/or Lopez so long as we received a return that gave us positive gains in our run differential. Ultimately, the final miscalculation Krivsky made, and the overall worst calculation, was the return since it was nowhere near projected to give us positive gains in our run differential, and not surprisingly it hasn't given us positive gains in our run differential. That's not just a problem this season, but going forward into 2007 and beyond.