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Thread: Dunn wants to finish strong

  1. #31
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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Yes LF defense... soooooooooooooooooo important isn't it?
    -13 FRAA is nothing to sneeze at.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

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  3. #32
    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Quote Originally Posted by dabvu2498 View Post
    -13 FRAA is nothing to sneeze at.
    Sorry, but what does this mean?
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Quote Originally Posted by dabvu2498 View Post
    -13 FRAA is nothing to sneeze at.
    True, but if I'm hiding a guys fielding, LF is where it's at.

    That said there's no reason he can't knock that down, or play 1st in his future. But I'm not going to make Dunn's defense a priority on my check list of what the Reds need to fix first.

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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Unfortunately for the Reds, Adam isn't the only fielder they need to hide.

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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Quote Originally Posted by TeamBoone View Post
    Sorry, but what does this mean?
    It means he costs the Reds 13 runs in LF vs. an average LF. Seems about right to me.

    FWIW, Lopez is at a -12
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    With a strong finish, he has a shot at breaking his own record.
    "I notice that I'm throwing hard when I hear the crowd gasping," - Chapman


  8. #37
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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Quote Originally Posted by NastyBoy View Post
    With a strong finish, he has a shot at breaking his own record.
    how's that jersey thing going for you?
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    how's that jersey thing going for you?
    Who would have thunk that Griffey had a glass toe? LOL
    "I notice that I'm throwing hard when I hear the crowd gasping," - Chapman


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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Did I hear Adam had a diving catch today???

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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    Did I hear Adam had a diving catch today???
    Yes he did. Pretty nice catch. Can watch online HERE.


    If that link doen't work, just go to www.mlb.com and it on video highlights.
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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    I think an outfield of Manny Ramierez, Adam Dunn, and Wily Mo Pena would be painful to watch....
    Painful to watch maybe, but as a Red Sox fan, I can tell you I'd trade Coco Crisp to the Reds in a deal for Adam Dunn in a heartbeat and worry about the OF defense later.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  13. #42
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    Yes he did. Pretty nice catch. Can watch online HERE.


    If that link doen't work, just go to www.mlb.com and it on video highlights.
    Thanks, I'm not sure I'd use the word "pretty", but he got to it and more important, he did what he need to do to make the catch. I'll take ugly and out any day. I don't think I would call Dunn a bad outfielder, rather slightly below average. I think he suffers from a rap for a few catchs that seemed to have been poorly played. I know I've seen stats posted that shows Dunn isn't as bad as the perception is. Not only in fielding percentage, but also in how they calculate a player's ability to get to the ball. I glad to see the night before last that he got a good throw in to stop the runner, resulting in a successful rundown.

  14. #43
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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    True, but if I'm hiding a guys fielding, LF is where it's at.

    That said there's no reason he can't knock that down, or play 1st in his future. But I'm not going to make Dunn's defense a priority on my check list of what the Reds need to fix first.
    As you have quoted Bill James, several times before if memory serves me:

    Bill James wrote that a team is best to avoid having too many players who have the same weakness.
    So, the Reds run out a LF with -13 FRAA, CF who is -12, crappy SS of the week who is -3, 0, or -1, 3B who is -9 and it's an insitutional problem and every ball hit on the left side of second base is a nail biter.

    Also, I'm going to try some simple math here, because that's about all my brain can handle.

    I'm going to use BP's BRAA (batting runs above average) and FRAA (fielding runs above average) and simply add them. If you want to "negatize" the stats or BP's methodology, or my methodology, go ahead. Like I said, this is about all my feeble mind can take.

    Last year, Adam Dunn had a 39 BRAA and a -9 FRAA for a total score of +30. Pretty good by anyone's standards.

    This season let's compare him to 19 other left fielders using those same two stats.

    Code:
    Player BRAA +/- FRAA = Total
    
    Manny Ramirez 46-16 =   30
    Matt Holliday 33+2 =   35
    Alfonso Soriano 36+10 =   46
    Jason Bay 35+11 =   46
    Barry Bonds 37+1 =   38
    Carl Crawford 14-3 =   11
    Luke Scott 24+0 =   24
    Reed Johnson 15+8 =   23
    Josh Willingham 23-10 =   13
    Adam Dunn 21-13 =   8
    Carlos Lee 45-11 =   34
    Juan Rivera 12+3 =   15
    Raul Ibanez 14-1 =  13
    Chris Duncan 18-2 =   16
    Andre Ethier 13-6 =   7
    Pat Burrell 16-1 =   15
    Dave Roberts 14+2 =   16
    Marcus Thames 9-3 =   6
    Emil Brown 9+2 =   11
    Frank Catalanotto 8+6 =   14
    Now, lets try that again with ages and salaries.
    Code:
    Player BRAA +/- FRAA = Total  Salary  Age
    
    Manny Ramirez 46-16 =   30  18.2M  34
    Matt Holliday 33+2 =   35  500k  26
    Alfonso Soriano 36+10 =   46  10.00M  30
    Jason Bay 35+11 =   46  1.0M  28
    Barry Bonds 37+1 =   38  20M  42
    Carl Crawford 14-3 =   11  2.625M  25
    Luke Scott 24+0 =   24  minimum  28
    Reed Johnson 15+8 =   23  1.425  29  
    Josh Willingham 23-10 =   13  327K  27
    Adam Dunn 21-13 =   8  7.5M  26
    Carlos Lee 45-11 =   34  8.5M  30
    Juan Rivera 12+3 =   15  1.25M  28
    Raul Ibanez 14-1 =  13  4.9M  34
    Chris Duncan 18-2 =   16  minimum  25
    Andre Ethier 13-6 =   7  minimum  24
    Pat Burrell 16-1 =   15  9.75M  29
    Dave Roberts 14+2 =   16  2.25M  34
    Marcus Thames 9-3 =   6  342K  29
    Emil Brown 9+2 =   11  1.775M  31
    Frank Catalanotto 8+6 =   14  2.7M  32
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  15. #44
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Last year, Adam Dunn had a 39 BRAA and a -9 FRAA for a total score of +30. Pretty good by anyone's standards.

    This season let's compare him to 19 other left fielders using those same two stats.
    Good points, but as I've also said before one season is not any mans career, so the real question will be do you keep him and if you do is it in LF.

    I'm of the opinion that Dunn can and will hit better and that his fielding can be better.

    I'm also of the opinion that the Reds can't replace his offense in one off season, so I'd be willing to gamble that he can return to a 30 doubles machine and still hit 45 HR's... and if they have to hide him on the field LF is still the place I'd do it.

    I also think Bill James would agree with that too.

  16. #45
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    Re: Dunn wants to finish strong

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Good points, but as I've also said before one season is not any mans career, so the real question will be do you keep him and if you do is it in LF.
    The Reds are, to my kind, at the Adam Dunn precipice. Either he turns into Reggie Jackson... or Greg Luzinski. Either way, I don't think he's a Red in 2 more years.

    With the footwork required to play 1st, I really can't see him there. You're right... LF is the place to hide him, but I can't see him anywhere but DH over the long haul. One of the Reds, problems is they don't have anyone else playing alongside him to give his defensive failings any cover-up.

    I'm also of the opinion that the Reds can't replace his offense in one off season, so I'd be willing to gamble that he can return to a 30 doubles machine and still hit 45 HR's... and if they have to hide him on the field LF is still the place I'd do it.
    Sure... if he goes back to creating 35-50 runs per year above average, you can live below average fielding, especially if the rest of the squad isn't so inept defensively. If he settles at 15-30 runs above average and maintains his current defense, the above chart would show he's fairly easily replaced for considerable savings.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.


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