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Thread: Reds 2007 VORP

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Reds 2007 VORP

    I don't have a ton of time so I'm not gonna give any real analysis, just a few thoughts. Besides, that's better left to Cyclone, Steel, and Co. However, I thought I found this quite telling...

    Definition of VORP: Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

    1.) Rich Aurilia, 28.2
    2.) Adam Dunn, 27.7
    3.) Brandon Phillips, 25.9
    4.) David Ross, 23.2
    5.) Edwin Encarnacion, 20.3
    6.) Scott Hatteberg, 19.8
    7.) Ryan Freel, 17.9
    8.) Austin Kearns, 16.6
    9.) Ken Griffey Jr, 16.3
    10.) Felipe Lopez, 16.2

    - VORP excludes defense, which would drop Dunn and Junior down the list.

    - For context, Rich Aurilia is 39th in the NL, Dunn is 40th. Ahead of them include such players as Adrian Gonzalez, Omar Vizquel, and Orlando Hudson. Remember, this is offense only, but is positional.

    - Adam Dunn, great as his career has been to date, simply isn't all that great this year. Valuable, yes. Star, no.

    - Austin Kearns was finally coming in to his own offensively such that 368 PA of Kearns was worth more than 470 PA of KGJ. We waited for his value to return, then traded him based on his tanked value.

    - Dave Ross was one of the productive players per PA in baseball compared to his positional peers.

    Feel free to comment (mostly about Dunn and Junior I presume...)
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    Phillips had been up in the 28-29 range as recently has 2-3 weeks ago.

    Edit: Here's how they stood exactly 2 weeks ago (no Kearns):

    Player VORP
    Brandon Phillips 29.4
    Adam Dunn 28.7
    Rich Aurilia 26.9
    David Ross 25.5
    Scott Hatteberg 25.5
    Edwin Encarnacion 21.7
    Ryan Freel 17.7
    Ken Griffey Jr. 16.0
    Royce Clayton -2.8
    Chris Denorfia -3.2
    Jason LaRue -5.8
    Last edited by dabvu2498; 09-20-2006 at 01:03 PM.
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    Joe Oliver love-child Blimpie's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    1.) Rich Aurilia, 28.2
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    To go along with the hitters

    Top 5 Reds Pitching Vorp

    Player VORP
    Bronson Arroyo 64.2
    Aaron Harang 40.2
    Todd Coffey 18.2
    David Weathers 16.7
    Kyle Lohse 10.1
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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    Quote Originally Posted by Blimpie View Post
    RedsZone meltdown in 3-2-1....
    hey, what can you say? the guy has had a great second half.

    the worst part is that Dunn and Griffey really should be up in 40's if they were on their game.
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    Let me make sure I understand this correctly, not sure I do. These numbers indicate that Arroyo is by far the most valuable player on the Reds this year, followed by Harang, unless defense would change that equation. Seems logical to me, if that's what it means.

    Also, as to the comment about Kearns, where would his 16.6 put in among right fielders? 16.6 doesn't sound that great to me (nor does Griff's 16.3).

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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Let me make sure I understand this correctly, not sure I do. These numbers indicate that Arroyo is by far the most valuable player on the Reds this year, followed by Harang, unless defense would change that equation. Seems logical to me, if that's what it means.

    Also, as to the comment about Kearns, where would his 16.6 put in among right fielders? 16.6 doesn't sound that great to me (nor does Griff's 16.3).
    Yes, those two are, by this metric, and IMO, the Reds most valuable players.

    As for Kearns, I'm pretty sure those are the totals for the year, not just for the Reds. FWIW, while I like Kearns, I still maintain he had far less trade value than most here would like to admit.
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Let me make sure I understand this correctly, not sure I do. These numbers indicate that Arroyo is by far the most valuable player on the Reds this year, followed by Harang, unless defense would change that equation. Seems logical to me, if that's what it means.
    That's the way I read it as well.

    Also, as to the comment about Kearns, where would his 16.6 put in among right fielders? 16.6 doesn't sound that great to me (nor does Griff's 16.3).
    Actually, if you combine his 16.6 from Cincy with his 7.2 in Washington, his 23.5 would rank him 2nd in NL RF's just behind JD Drew and just ahead of Brad Hawpe. (Abreu had 25.4 at the time of his trade.) The RF crop in the NL is weak, admittedly.
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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    thanks for the clarification on Kearns. He hasn't been so hot since he went to the Ntas.
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    thanks for the clarification on Kearns. He hasn't been so hot since he went to the Ntas.
    If he had continued at his "Cincy" rate, he would have compiled a 11.1 VORP since the trade, for a 37.7 total, making him far and away the leading NL VORP RF.

    Edit: Which begs the question... is VORP park-adjusted???
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    Quote Originally Posted by dabvu2498 View Post

    Edit: Which begs the question... is VORP park-adjusted???
    I don't believe so.
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    hey, what can you say? the guy has had a great second half.

    the worst part is that Dunn and Griffey really should be up in 40's if they were on their game.
    Yep, the latest VORP figures sound like the perfect contract renegotiation fodder for Rich....
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    Ok serrious question here....

    AK and Lopez VORP is nearly equal to Jrs acording to this list. Jr's offense this year is generally considered to be sub-par. Yet AK/Lopez were repetatedly touted as the cog in the offensive engine. Something isn't adding up there.

    So how can their VORP be at the bottom of this list while at the same time being two critical components of the offense? That seems controdictory to me. I'm asking a serrious question so I can understand how these these numbers jive with others that have been shared.
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Ok serrious question here....

    AK and Lopez VORP is nearly equal to Jrs acording to this list. Jr's offense this year is generally considered to be sub-par. Yet AK/Lopez were repetatedly touted as the cog in the offensive engine. Something isn't adding up there.

    So how can their VORP be at the bottom of this list while at the same time being two critical components of the offense? That seems controdictory to me. I'm asking a serrious question so I can understand how these these numbers jive with others that have been shared.
    Reds PAs ...

    Kearns: 368
    Lopez: 394
    Griffey: 470

    So it took Griffey 102 more plate appearances to match Kearns in VORP and 76 more plate appearances to match Lopez in VORP. Griffey used up a lot more outs in order to accumulate the run value over replacement to catch Kearns and Lopez. That's bad for Griffey, but good for Kearns and Lopez.

    Also, remember VORP is positional, meaning that it's comparing a player's value in runs to a replacement player at that specific position.
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    Re: Reds 2007 VORP

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Ok serrious question here....

    AK and Lopez VORP is nearly equal to Jrs acording to this list. Jr's offense this year is generally considered to be sub-par. Yet AK/Lopez were repetatedly touted as the cog in the offensive engine. Something isn't adding up there.

    So how can their VORP be at the bottom of this list while at the same time being two critical components of the offense? That seems controdictory to me. I'm asking a serrious question so I can understand how these these numbers jive with others that have been shared.

    VORP is calculated relative to the position a player plays. Since Lopez is at SS and KG in CF, they are generally measured against lesser offensive players. The issue is that both Lopez and Kearns were average and yet were not replaced by average performers on the whole.
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