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Thread: Top three offense moves this offseason?

  1. #1
    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
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    Top three offense moves this offseason?

    As most teams will, the Reds will pursue whatever pitching they can this offseason--but here's a new one: the Reds will probably finish the season in the lower half of the league in runs scored. What are your top three moves on offense this offseason?
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    1.) Name Denorfia as the new starting OF, preferrably in CF with Junior splitting time in RF and 1B. Junior can play 1B against lefties, to get Hatteberg out of the lineup and allow Junior an easier day on the legs.

    2.) Move Phillips to SS and use a platoon of Freel and Aurilia at 2B. There are no good FA SS outside of Lugo, who will get a big deal, and there are 0 other viable in house options. If Aurilia opts out, pursue Ray Durham as the full time starter (though I imagine he'll be too expensive due to his career year). Worst case scenario, Freel becomes your full-time 2B with Olmedo ready on the bench.

    3.) Figure out the 3 headed catcher monster. If somebody makes you a credible offer on either LaRue or Ross, move him. LaRue's value will never be lower, so I doubt you get anything for him without paying his salary, and likely not much even then. Ross's defense is too poor for him to play full time (in my opinion) and his value will never be higher.

    Unfortunately, I don't think we have the pieces to be that 830 run offense any more. Dunn needs to be an elite player for us to do that, and this year he's just been pretty good. Junior probably isn't going to OPS over .900 again, particularly if he stays in CF. We can't count on career years from a catcher. Hatteberg won't put up these numbers again, even given a favorable platoon. What we do have is a decent foundation for a balanced offense that can score 760 runs and both slug and manufacture a run. To do that though, we need Dunn, Jr., and Encarnacion in the lineup almost every day, and OBP at the top of the lineup, be it Freel or somebody else.

    A few other thoughts:
    - Votto should be ready to come up at some point, likely replacing Hatteberg, who would make great trade bait in July.
    - Brandon Phillips reminds me a lot of Jacque Jones at the plate. If he can play above average defense at SS and keep up the power/speed combo, he'll be a great role player batting 6th or 7th. I just hope we never have to rely on him as a #2 type guy.
    - Encarnacion, whereever he ends up defensively, needs to bat no lower than 4th in the lineup. Period.
    - Junior doesn't need protection and shouldn't be taking at bats from Dunn or Encarnacion.
    - Denorfia needs to get 150-200 consecutive at bats without being jerked around. He can hit. He's hit at every level and has plate discipline. Above that though, he's our best defensive outfielder and should be in CF regardless. If Norris Hopper was 23, then fine. But he's not. Hollandsworth is a fine guy to have off the bench as a pinch hitter. But he's a classic "doesn't do any well, but doesn't embarrass the squad" kind of guy that managers play because they see it as risk averse. They call it replacement level for a reason.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-24-2006 at 12:57 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    Nm
    Last edited by reds44; 09-27-2006 at 10:08 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    I'm curious about the "sign a real leadoff/cf" guy. Who is this guy? Juan Pierre? The guy who has been a tear bringing his OBP to .330? Oh yeah, don't forget he'll probably cost 5-7 million per. Torii Hunter is a 5th/6th bat, not a leadoff hitter, and will cost even more than that.

    Freel and Denorfia are two of the best leadoff/CF options out there right now -- yet it seems lots of people are on a grass-is-greener trip.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    What has Denorfia done to merit starting next season? Freel cannot be counted on to be an everyday player I think this second half has proved that. I hate to say it be I am beggining to feel that the Reds are farther away from contending now then they were the first of the season.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    Chris Denorfia in AAA:

    2005: 323 AB, .310/.391/.505
    2006: 312 AB, .349/.409/.484, Named best defensive OF in the IL

    When prospects tear up AAA, it merits the opportunity to play in the majors. An opportunity to play does not mean spot starting and pinch hitting. You can't wait until a guy goes 7/10 as a pinch hitter, or 3/4 in a spot start to start playing him everyday. In light of the other options for CF and his body of work over the past 3 years, Denorfia easily makes the most sense. It's not like we need to an open a spot for him or that he's a Brandon Larson who killed mediocre pitching and couldn't hit good offspeed stuff to save his life, even in AAA.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-24-2006 at 02:34 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #7
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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    Not exactly three moves and not just offense but here's what I'd do assuming Bob C. ups the payroll to about 85M (with the 20M profits). As a result a team that would IMO almost certainly make the playoffs is a result and revenues would again increase and profits as well. Instead of another spending spree with the additional money after 2007, these players can be locked up. As far as the deals, I wanted to be more realistic and give up enough talent on the Reds end to make things happen.

    -Hatteburg, Cormier and Dunn to the Angels for Brandon Wood, K. Escobar.

    The Reds cut about 8M in payroll... get a #2/3 type starter and a SS who is projected to be a star. The Angels would definately do this as they have plenty of starting pitching and they desperately lack lefty arms and bats. Hatteburg and Garrett Anderson would platoon and Dunn would move into a 1B/LF job. Cormier would be the dominant lefty in their pen; he has struggled as a Red. Wood is expendable on the Angels end with Aybar being the preffered successor to Cabrera at SS.

    -R. Freel, and R. Olmedo for J. Kennedy.

    Kennedy is expendable on the A's part and Beane desperately needs a solid player to fill in at SS. Olmedo is a decent throw in also. Reds can use Kennedy as a setup man or closer as a result.

    -K. Lohse, M. Belisle and D. Wise to the Indians for K. Shoppach.

    With Victor Martinez making Shoppach expendable, this package would likely do the trick; the Indians need some OF/pen/back end of the rotation help.

    -LaRue and 2M for a PTBNL from the Nats.

    2M should do the trick, especially if the PTBNL was a Brenden Harris-esque AAAA guy.

    -V. Castilla to a MLC.

    While he is a bad hitter, his glove is superb and who knows, his bat might come through a little more. His primary function will be as a defensive replacement at 3B.

    -Millar to a 1 yr 1.5M deal.

    A good hitter off the bench.. solid 1B/corner OFer. Should get an OPS in the .750-.800 range and should any corner OF or 1B go down with an injury he can fill in.

    -E. Milton, B. Harris, and T. Pelland for B. Lidge.

    Astros want to dump Lidge; with Clemens and Pettite FA's and little other stability behind Oswalt they might want to do a trade like this. Pelland is a decent prospect and Harris is a nice throw in.

    -C. Donorfia, B. Shackelford, and a PTBNL for M. Itzurus.

    Shackelford gives the Angels decent LHP options... Donorfia would eventually supplant Figgins in CF.

    -D. Ross, H. Bailey, M. Itzurus, N. Hopper for M. Cabrera and C. Ross.

    The Reds really need as many "big bats" as possible. While Bailey's departure would be tough, Miguel Cabrera would complete the lineup. Ross is expendable with Shoppach and doubtful to repeat his success. Itzurus was expensive, but getting him makes the Marlins want to do the trade with a decent replacement at 3B. Cabrera is due for some big pay raises and the Fish need to stay as young and cheap as possible. Hopper is also a nice throw in. Ross is expendable on the Fish's part and also is a nice throw in for the Reds' bench.

    -J. Schmidt to a 4 yr. 52M deal.

    13M per year for Schmidt is not too bad. He can consistently keep his ERA under 3.75 and give the offense quality starts. Options for 1-2 more years in the deal would be ideal.

    -A. Soriano to a 5 yr. 68M deal.

    He's still young and he can be counted on for 35-50 HR and 40 SB with a decent average as well. He can replace Griffey in CF, also. He could be placed in the #4 spot in the lineup opposed to leadoff duties.

    -Stanton to a 1 yr. 1.5M deal.

    Small contract... decent arm for the backend of the pen.

    -R. Wolf to a 1 yr. 2M deal.

    Small deal... decent fifth starter and a lefty is desperately needed in the pen. Not a bad move.

    85M
    -----
    Shoppach C .5M
    Aurilia 1B 3M
    Phillips 2B .5M
    Encarnacion 3B .5M
    B. Wood SS .33M
    M. Cabrera LF 5M
    A. Soriano CF 13.5M
    K. Griffey RF 12M

    37.5M


    Millar 1B/OF
    Valentin C
    Castro 2B/SS/3B
    C. Ross OF
    Castilla 3B

    5M

    Schmidt 13
    Arroyo 4
    Harang 4
    Escobar 7
    Wolf 2

    30M

    Kennedy
    Lidge
    Bray
    Majewski
    Coffey
    Standridge
    Stanton
    -----
    12.5M

    Phillips 2B .280, 18, 75, .340, .460, .800
    Aurilia 1B .290, 27, 80, .365, .510, .875
    M. Cabrera LF .340, 30, 130, .420, .630, 1.050
    A. Soriano CF .290, 45, 115, .370, .630, 1.000
    Encarnacion 3B .300, 24, 100, .375, .510, .895
    Griffey RF .265, 35, 100, .350, .510, .860
    Wood SS .280, 25, 70, .340, .475, .805
    Shoppach C .275, 10, 50, .330, .420, .750

    Schmidt 21-7, 2.90, 210 IP.
    Arroyo 17-9, 3.60, 230 IP.
    Harang 17-8, 3.80, 225 IP.
    Escobar 16-10, 3.95, 200 IP.
    Wolf 11-10, 4.45 180 IP.

    The eventual plan would be to phase Votto in at 1B and later replace Griffey with Bruce. Money saved would be used for arbitration cases (Harang and Cabrera particularly).

    The bench is very good too.....

    -if Griffey goes down either C. Ross or Millar step in.
    -If Ed.E. goes down, Aurilia moves to 3B and Millar at 1B.
    -If Phillips goes down, Aurilia moves to 2B and Millar to 1B.
    -Soriano down then C. Ross comes in at CF.
    -Cabrera down then C. Ross or Millar come in.
    -Wood down means Aurilia to SS, Millar to 1B... or Castro to SS..... or Aurilia to 2B and Phillips to SS and Millar to 1B.
    -Valentin to C if Shoppach down.
    -If Aurilia goes down then Millar to 1B.
    -Michalak can be the spot starter and take Standridge's spot too.
    Last edited by redsandrails; 09-24-2006 at 05:04 PM.

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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Chris Denorfia in AAA:

    2005: 323 AB, .310/.391/.505
    2006: 312 AB, .349/.409/.484, Named best defensive OF in the IL

    When prospects tear up AAA, it merits the opportunity to play in the majors. An opportunity to play does not mean spot starting and pinch hitting. You can't wait until a guy goes 7/10 as a pinch hitter, or 3/4 in a spot start to start playing him everyday. In light of the other options for CF and his body of work over the past 3 years, Denorfia easily makes the most sense. It's not like we need to an open a spot for him or that he's a Brandon Larson who killed mediocre pitching and couldn't hit good offspeed stuff to save his life, even in AAA.

    This makes sense. Deno is already looking more comfortable. Reality, though, is that he is more likely to be a backup outfielder with a bigger name guy acquired in off-season. I do notice that Deno is playing better, seems more comfortable, and certainly has some value.

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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    Deno is a Dallas Williams or a Razor Shines, a guy who puts up great numbers in the minors but a marginal player at the major league level.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    I think at best he can become a Reed Johnson/Franky Catalanotto type.

    I think he's likely to become a Brady Clark type..

    I think he also could become a Brandon Larson type who is only a marginal bench player at the ML level.

    I could see him putting up .290, 5, 45, .350, .390, .740 with 20 SB over a full season maybe... possibly better or worse.

  12. #11
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    1. Vernon Wells to Cincinnati for Travis Wood, Chris Denorfia, Tyler Pelland, and David Shafer

    2. Adam Dunn, Scott Hatteberg, Elizardo Ramierez and Travis Webb to the Angels for Ervin Santana and Casey Kothcman

    3. Sign Luis Castillo, Adam Eaton, Dave Roberts and Jose Cruz Jr./ Re-Sign Scott Schoeneweis, Kyle Lohse, and Juan Castro/ Deal Jason LaRue

    Catchers
    1. David Ross
    2. Javy Valentin

    1st Base
    1. Casey Kotchman
    2. Joey Votto

    2nd Base
    1. Luis Castillo
    2. Ryan Freel

    Shortstop
    1. Brandon Phillips
    2. Juan Castro

    3rd Base
    1. Edwin Encarnacion
    2. Juan Castro

    Right Field
    1. Ryan Freel
    2. Dave Roberts

    Center Field
    1. Ken Griffey Jr.
    2. Ryan Freel

    Left Field
    1. Vernon Wells
    2. Jose Cruz Jr.

    Lineup
    Ryan Freel
    Luis Castillo
    Vernon Wells
    Ken Griffey Jr.
    Edwin Encarnacion
    Casey Kotchman
    Brandon Phillips
    David Ross

    Rotation
    1. Aaron Harang
    2. Bronson Arroyo
    3. Ervin Santana
    4. Adam Eaton
    5. Eric Milton

    Bullpen
    LR Brandon Claussen
    LR Kyle Lohse
    MR Gary Majewski
    MR Bill Bray
    MR Reahl Cormier
    SU Todd Coffey
    CL Scott Schoeneweis
    Last edited by RedLegSuperStar; 09-24-2006 at 09:29 PM.

  13. #12
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    I'd look to get a RF who can slug, a good OB CF/LF with a quality glove and a multi-faceted SS (probably the hardest thing to find on the planet, but that's what I want). I'd move Dunn to 1B and Jr. out of town. Phillips would stay at 2B, Encarnacion would get 3B and Denorfia would get either CF or LF.

    Given the RH tilt there, I'd want two of the three new guys to hit left-handed or switch.

    Now that's what I'd want. I don't necessarily think it's doable. My priority would be the SS and the CF/LF. You can always keep Dunn in LF and patch at 1B (possibly Jr.). But for a small market team, depth of lineup and a broad set of skills for the up-the-middle guys strikes me as critical.

    Basically what I'm saying is build a baseball team from the middle out and take the chance that one, maybe two, big power bats will be all the muscle you need. Plus, guys like Encarnacion and Phillips should see their power numbers increase.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  14. #13
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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    My priority would be the SS and the CF/LF.
    SS is covered...Castro signed a two year deal.

  15. #14
    Designated Threadkiller LincolnparkRed's Avatar
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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'd look to get a RF who can slug, a good OB CF/LF with a quality glove and a multi-faceted SS (probably the hardest thing to find on the planet, but that's what I want). I'd move Dunn to 1B and Jr. out of town. Phillips would stay at 2B, Encarnacion would get 3B and Denorfia would get either CF or LF.
    Would you take Arod and move him back to SS. I think one more postseason flop and he can be had for pennies on the dollar.
    Climbing down from the bridge, but keeping the torch lit until Dusty's fate is settled

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    Re: Top three offense moves this offseason?

    In a heartbeat would I take ARod and put him at SS.


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