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http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...es/262497.html
They give us some love. Three Reds made it. It's free content.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...es/262497.html
So what is the consensus timetable on when Bruce might make his reds debut? Will he follow a homer like rise or are OF more incremental?
I would think that Bruce would start the year in High A next year and probably be promoted (if continuing to play well) to AA by the end of next year (2007). In 2008, I'd guess that he'd start the year in AA and potentially move up to AAA around mid year (again, if playing well and no injuries). He could be a potential Sept call up in 2008. In 2009, I expect him to be a starting OF on the Reds.
'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
-Snoop on his retirement
Your Mom is happy.
With a guy like Bruce, his play makes the call. He blows up in 2008 like Dunn did in 2001, you bring him up.
Or we could trade him for Coco Crisp. Proven veteren you know.
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
I'm curious, what is the failure rate of top offensive prospects (who have actually accomplished something in the minors -- not just pure hype monsters) relative to top pitching prospects. It seems like there just aren't that many great offensive guys who fall flat, particularly ones ahead of the curve.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Pitchers flop a lot more often than hitters. At first thought thats what comes to mind. I dont have much to do this evening, I will go over the last 10 years of BA top 100 prospects and do the top 10 hitters and top 10 pitchers from every draft and see what I can come up with.
Here is the lists
There are a lot more pitchers that are in the "never heard of him" or "that guy was a top prospect in baseball?" than there are hitters. Each group has its hits and misses, but the hitters seem a lot more hit than pitchers.Code:2005 Hitters Pitchers Joe Mauer 1 Felix Hernandez Delmon Young 2 Scott Kazmir Ian Stewart 3 Matt Cain Joel Guzman 4 Adam Miller Casey Kotchman 5 Chad Billingsley Rickie Weeks 6 Jeff Niemann Andy Marte 7 Jeff Francis Hanley Ramirez 8 Jose Capellan Lastings Milledge 9 Mike Hinckley Dallas McPherson 10 Edwin Jackson 2004 Hitters Pitchers Joe Mauer 1 Edwin Jackson BJ Upton 2 Greg Miller Delmon Young 3 Scott Kazmir Rickie Weeks 4 Adam Loewen Alexis Rios 5 Zack Greinke Kazou Matsui 6 Cole Hamels Grady Sizemore 7 Dustin McGowan Prince Fielder 8 Gavin Floyd Andy Marte 9 Chin-Hui Tsao Casey Kotchman 10 Angel Guzman 2003 Hitters Pitchers Mark Teixeira 1 Jesse Foppert Rocco Baldelli 2 Jose Contreras Jose Reyes 3 Gavin Floyd Joe Mauer 4 Francisco Rodriguez Brandon Phillips 5 Scott Kazmir Hideki Matsui 6 Adam Waitwrights Miguel Cabrera 7 Jeremy Bonderman Casey Kotchman 8 John Vanbenschoten Justin Morneau 9 Sean Burnett Jason Stokes 10 Rafael Soriano 2002 Hitters Pitchers Hank Blalock 1 Josh Beckett Sean Burroughs 2 Mark Prior Carlos Pena 3 Juan Cruz Joe Mauer 4 Ryan Anderson Wilson Betemit 5 Dennis Tankersley Drew Henson 6 Nick Neugebauer Mark Teixeira 7 Jerome Williams Austin Kearns 8 Jon Rauch Joe Borchard 9 Carlos Hernandez Nick Johnson 10 Ty Howington 2001 Hitters Pitchers Josh Hamilton 1 Josh Beckett Corey Patterson 2 Jon Rauch Sean Burroughs 3 Ben Sheets Ichiro Suzuki 4 CC Sabathia Nick Johnson 5 Ryan Anderson Carlos Pena 6 Roy Oswalt Vernon Wells 7 Chin-Hui Tsao Drew Henson 8 Juan Cruz Antonio Perez 9 Jerome Williams Alex Escobar 10 Bobby Bradley 2000 Hitters Pitchers Pat Burrell 1 Rick Ankiel Corey Patterson 2 Ryan Anderson Vernon Wells 3 John Patterson Nick Johnson 4 Mark Mulder Ruben Mateo 5 Kip Wells Sean Burroughs 6 Matt Riley Rafael Furcal 7 Josh Beckett Dee Brown 8 AJ Burnett Josh Hamilton 9 Brad Penny Alfonso Soriano 10 Wilfredo Rodriguez 1999 Hitters Pitchers JD Drew 1 Rick Ankiel Eric Chavez 2 Bruce Chen Michael Barrett 3 Brad Penny Pablo Ozuna 4 Ryan Anderson Ruben Mateo 5 Matt Clement Alex Escobar 6 Roy Halladay Lance Berkman 7 John Patterson Carlos Beltran 8 Matt Riley Corey Patterson 9 AJ Burnerr Alex Gonzalez 10 Braden Looper 1998 Hitters Pitchers Ben Grieve 1 Kerry Wood Paul Konerko 2 Matt White Adrian Beltre 3 Kris Benson Aramis Ramirez 4 Carl Pavano Travis Lee 5 Matt Clement Miguel Tejada 6 Rick Ankiel Todd Helton 7 Brian Rose Mark Kotsay 8 Ryan Anderson Chad Hermansen 9 Matt Anderson Brad Fulmer 10 Eric Milton 1997 Hitters Pitchers Andruw Jones 1 Kerry Wood Vladimir Guerrero 2 Matt White Travis Lee 3 Kris Benson Migeul Tejada 4 Bartolo Colon Todd Walker 5 Carl Pavano Ruben Rivera 6 Jaret Wright Nomar Garciaparra 7 Roy Halladay Paul Konerko 8 Matt Morris Jose Cruz Jr 9 Chris Carpenter Scott Rolen 10 Braden Looper 1996 Hitters Pitchers Andruw Jones 1 Paul Wilson Ruben Rivera 2 Alan Benes Daren Erstad 3 Livan Hernandez Derek Jeter 4 Jason Schmidt Karim Garcia 5 Matt Drews Vladimir Guerrero 6 Billy Wagner Ben Davis 7 Bartolo Colon Derrick Gibson 8 Kerry Wood Rey Ordonez 9 Chan Ho Park Richard Hildalgo 10 Rocky Coppinger
Hmm... the hitters do VERY well... almost all of them are quality MLB players. About half of the pitchers seem to pan out.
Also, I didn't realize Votto was quick (24 steals)... I was thinking he was a big bulky power hitter for some reason.
This is significant recognition. 3 players out of 14 total, with all three at positions where the Reds could use an upgrade in the next two years. Big improvement from last year.
The Reds sure have a lot of players on this list, don't they?
How weird is that direct quote from Baseball America about the Cincinnati Reds? Makes me think 2009 or 2010 could be fun.
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
My understanding is that what we really lack is depth. Sure, now we've got a few guys at the top, but particularly offensively, it doesn't seem like we have much mid-level talent --- Denorfia types who play pretty well but aren't considered high ceiling guys. I'm thinking of a Nick Punto who will never be an all-star but is better than replacement and keeps you from spending a million bucks on Juan Castro...
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
I don't buy it. When it comes to finding players like Punto, I think it's really a matter of organizational will -- it takes some guts to go with low-pick guys who have relatively pedestrian minor league numbers (take a look at Punto's sometime if you want to be underwhelmed). Who's to say that guys like Drew Anderson, Brendan Harris, Mike Griffin and Justin Turner (guys like Valaika and Loo come more highly touted) can't turn into useful utility infielders in the Punto mold?My understanding is that what we really lack is depth. Sure, now we've got a few guys at the top, but particularly offensively, it doesn't seem like we have much mid-level talent --- Denorfia types who play pretty well but aren't considered high ceiling guys. I'm thinking of a Nick Punto who will never be an all-star but is better than replacement and keeps you from spending a million bucks on Juan Castro...
And forget about BA assessments when it comes to "depth" -- after decades of reading that publication, it's my opinion that they trot out an evaluation about depth only to prop up whatever grade they want to assign to an organization (the grade being based primarily on the top prospects plus the chumminess factor -- BA fawns on some orgs as a matter of habit, for whatever reason). Just my opinion...
I fully expect Bruce to be fast-tracked, so I'd challenge him and bump him up to AA next year. I don't know that spending part of the year in High-A next year will really do him all that much good. If he struggles at Chattanooga then you send him to High-A and let him get things together for a month or so and then bring him right back. If he continues to develop as he has, I could see a September call-up next year if the Reds aren't in the playoff picture and a full-time job for 2007. It's probably overly optimistic, but I just get the feeling that this organization is planning on Bruce moving up fast now that he's shown he's legit.
"It's still a long way to the top if we want to rock'n'roll, but at least they dumped the tuba player."
--M2
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