1. ## Tragic Number: 1

How do the Reds force a playoff?

Reds win out (2 games)
Cards lose out (3 games)
Astrose lose 1 of 2

Any Reds loss or Cardinals win and we are done.

That being said, it was a fantastic season. They exceeded all of our expectations. Nothing to be ashamed of.

3. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

Even though I know we really have no chance, I am thrilled that we are still in it coming into the last weekend of the season - much better than I had hoped for.
All in all, I am rather proud of the way the team did. Sure, mistakes have been here and there - but complaining about the same mistakes day after day will not make the past fix itself.
My hopes for the offseason, next season and the seasons after are much higher than they were last year.

4. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

AT least we have hope on the next to last day of the season. It's been since 1999 that we have a glimmer of hope at this time. It's been a good season all in all and I am excited for the future of this franchise.

5. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

Originally Posted by reds44
How do the Reds force a playoff?

Reds win out (2 games)
Cards lose out (3 games)
Astrose lose 1 of 2

Any Reds loss or Cardinals win and we are done.

That being said, it was a fantastic season. They exceeded all of our expectations. Nothing to be ashamed of.
I agree, 44, that it's been a very exciting season, and I don't want to beat a dead horse, but the excitment has nothing to do with the Reds exceeding any expectations.

They've been Pythag lucky (+4.6) and third-order win lucky (+5.1), but they haven't improved much on thier run-differential from 2005. They simply have scored less and given up less, but that's it.

Still, it would be pretty cool to win the division. Hopefully they win these next two and the baseball Gods are on our side. It's going to take a mini-miracle.

6. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

Probability Cards lose 3 = .125
Probability Reds win 2 = .25
Probabilty Astros win no more than 1 = .75

Combined probability = 2.34%

Chances haven't gotten any worse of the last week. They just haven't gotten any better.

7. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

Would that be 43-1 odds?

8. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg
Would that be 43-1 odds?
Sounds right.

9. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

Originally Posted by reds44
Nothing to be ashamed of.
Except that Matt Murton avatar.

11. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

Reds will make the playoffs. Go to Vegas and bet your life savings on it.

12. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

Originally Posted by RBA
Reds will make the playoffs. Go to Vegas and bet your life savings on it.
I would but I already invested the life savings on Enron and WorldCom stocks... if all works as planned, then I will buy the REDS someday!

13. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

Originally Posted by RBA
Reds will make the playoffs. Go to Vegas and bet your life savings on it.
I'm broke now.

Thanks

14. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

And then there were none...

15. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

Well, we made it to the next to the last day of the season. Who'd of thunk it......

16. ## Re: Tragic Number: 1

Damnit. I know that Tony Womack cost us 1 game this year.

Screw you, Tony Womack. You old washed up loser.

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