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Thread: 2006 Predictions

  1. #1
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    2006 Predictions

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503

    We didn't quite reach my expectations of 96 wins.


    Many people predicted 80-82, including OBM.

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  3. #2
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Predictions



    If the Reds can hit 83 or 84 I think they will place third in the division. Seriously. That is how weak I think the NL Central will be this year.
    I was kind of right. Except that 83 wins WON THE DIVISION.

    Looking at the predictions in the 60s range makes me feel a little better.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  4. #3
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    Go me!

    I wish I would have been wrong and the Reds won about five more games.

  5. #4
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    I was surprised to see I predicted an 82-80 record. That's probably the closest I've ever come to being right.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  6. #5
    Reds and 26.2's
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    A LOT of people predicted a LOT of less wins than they actually achieved..

    So many experts on here..

    Can we be a little more POSITIVE next year, ya'll?

  7. #6
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by FlyingPig View Post
    A LOT of people predicted a LOT of less wins than they actually achieved..

    So many experts on here..

    Can we be a little more POSITIVE next year, ya'll?
    I strive for reality in my predictions, not optimism.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

  8. #7
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    I strive for reality in my predictions, not optimism.
    Bingo. The team pythag worked out to 75-87 (or 76-86 dependent on how you slice it). Since many of us use the run differential as a guidepost in making these predictions, that's the number we'll be looking at in assessing the quality of the team.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  9. #8
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Bingo. The team pythag worked out to 75-87 (or 76-86 dependent on how you slice it). Since many of us use the run differential as a guidepost in making these predictions, that's the number we'll be looking at in assessing the quality of the team.
    Yep. Coming into the season, the Reds projected a 78-84 Pythag record. They finished at 80-82.

    If the Reds perform in 2007 as they have during the second half of 2006, they project a 72-90 record.

    The team actually took a step backwards in 2006. Oh joy.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  10. #9
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    The team actually took a step backwards in 2006. Oh joy.
    I'd argue it took three big non-linear steps forward though. Adding Arroyo to Harang changed the starting pitching equation. After years of finishing at or near the bottom of MLB in IP from starters, the Reds finished 3rd overall in 2006 (and it was Arroyo and Harang pulling that wagon).

    And Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion showed themselves to be the kind of young IFs around whom you can build something.

    The gap the team has to overcome may look a bit wider, but the crossing shouldn't be as onerous thanks to the arrival of those three guys. IMO, they've got easier problems to solve than they did a year ago.
    Last edited by M2; 10-02-2006 at 11:12 AM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #10
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    I haven't looked recently, but weren't the 2006 Reds an amazing anamoly at NOT creating the runs they should have based on key offensive measures. They only got worse as the season went along. At one point in mid-Sept, i thought they were better then the Cards in 3rd order pythag?

    By that measure aren't the Reds better than the 75-87 or 76-86. Weren't the 2006 RISP and RISP w/2 out metrics were so off the charts laughable that in no way could we expect 2007 to be anywhere as bad?? It was such an outlier that it seems outside any reasonable normal bell curve -- and 2005 was actually pretty good on those same measures.

    Also factor in horrendous defense that allowed the Reds to yield a BAA 10 pts or so above league average (insert your own KGJ/Dunn/SS liability references here).

    The 4.51 ERA with horrendous team defense, higher BAA and awful 1H bullpen give reason for hope. (and Bailey on the horizon)

  12. #11
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'd argue it took three big non-linear steps forward though. Adding Arroyo to Harang changed the starting pitching equation. After years of finishing at or near the bottom of MLB in IP from starters, the Reds finished 3rd overall in 2006 (and it was Arroyo and Harang pulling that wagon).

    And Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion showed themselves to be the kind of young IFs around whom you can build something.

    The gap the team has to overcome may look a bit wider, but the crossing shouldn't be as onerous thanks to the arrival of those three guys. IMO, they've got easier problems to solve than they did a year.
    Amazingly M2, we are on the same wavelength. I love the pitching turnaround and having 2/5ths of an above average rotation in place (with #3 on the near horizon). Our recent posts almost crossed paths in timestamp

  13. #12
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    Looks like based on 2nd order pyhtag the 2006 Reds created 41 fewer runs then expected (749 vs expected 790). Cards created 11 more than expected (778 vs. 767 expected)

    The Reds led the NL in underachievement (Pads were 2nd at 29 under). Blue Jays take the MLB prize at 45 under (802 vs. 847 expected)

    Check out how out of whack underachieving the Tribe was across the board and the A's overachieving by the same amount on 2nd and 3rd order. Run to Vegas if they post 78 for the over/under for Cleveland next year. Whoa!

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st.../standings.php
    Last edited by oregonred; 10-02-2006 at 03:11 AM.

  14. #13
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by oregonred View Post
    I haven't looked recently, but weren't the 2006 Reds an amazing anamoly at NOT creating the runs they should have based on key offensive measures. They only got worse as the season went along. At one point in mid-Sept, i thought they were better then the Cards in 3rd order pythag?

    By that measure aren't the Reds better than the 75-87 or 76-86. Weren't the 2006 RISP and RISP w/2 out metrics were so off the charts laughable that in no way could we expect 2007 to be anywhere as bad?? It was such an outlier that it seems outside any reasonable normal bell curve -- and 2005 was actually pretty good on those same measures.

    Also factor in horrendous defense that allowed the Reds to yield a BAA 10 pts or so above league average (insert your own KGJ/Dunn/SS liability references here).

    The 4.51 ERA with horrendous team defense, higher BAA and awful 1H bullpen give reason for hope. (and Bailey on the horizon)
    Good points, though it does beg the question of whether Jerry Narron can work with what's been given to him. I'll channel princeton here, I want the manager who can get his team to overperform, not the one who has it underperform.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #14
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by FlyingPig View Post
    A LOT of people predicted a LOT of less wins than they actually achieved..

    So many experts on here..

    Can we be a little more POSITIVE next year, ya'll?
    Positivity is a state of mind created by comfort, requests for positivity based on anything else is a tool of those who don't care to ponder what can go wrong.

    back at cha

  16. #15
    Raaaaaaaandy guttle11's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Predictions

    I predicted 81 wins.

    I'm clearly the world's greatest prognosticator.
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute


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