A sentiment that I've seen expressed a number of times is that the Reds are running low on power, practically precluding any trade of Dunn or Junior. I don't disagree with the underlying premise that the Reds have less power than they've had in the past and that swapping out Dunn/Jr for a Denorfia type would hurt the offense. However, I wanted to point out that power is often thought of too simply. Let's look at a team with 4 guys who have hit more than 10 homers, yet have scored 50 more runs than the Reds. In fact, they have hit 142 HR, 28th in the majors to the Reds 217, 3rd in the majors. Here are the 8 guys in their lineup with 300+ PA (in descending PA order):
1) Morneau: .321/.376/.560 - 34 HR, 129 RBI
2) Castillo: .295/.356/.369
3) Cuddyer: .282/.360/.504 - 24 HR, 108 RBI
4) Hunter .278/.336/.486 - 30 HR, 96 RBI
5) Mauer: .346/.449/.505 - 13 HR, 84 RBI
6) Punto: .292/.355/.376
7) White: .246/.276/.365
8) Bartlett: .307/.365/.392
Avg: .287 - 1st in MLB (Reds .257 - 29th)
OBP: .347 - 6th in MLB (Reds .336 - 16th)
SLG: .425 - 17th in MLB (Reds .432 - 13th)
So, the Twins and Reds have virtually identicaly OPS' but the Twins have scored 50 more runs. A few points here:
- You don't have to hit tons of homers to have a decent SLG%. The SLG% of a guy who goes 2-4 with 2 singles is .500. Adam Dunn was outslugged by Michael Cuddyer.
- You need both OBP and SLG to score runs. A walk and a single can mean 4 total bases advanced even though it doesn't show up in the SLG%.
- The Reds don't have a front line hitter. Yes, I know Dunn is productive. But despite the HR totals, there's A LOT more value in what Morneau has done that what Dunn has in 2006.
- Joe Mauer is awesome.
Now, I know we don't have a Johann Santana, a Joe Nathan, Liriano, Neshak, etc. Our run prevention is WAY behind the Twins and we have a long way to go before Krivksy's model is realized. However, despite the perception, the Twins offense scores runs.
We could subtract Dunn's HR from the lineup and still out homer the Twins. We need better hitters all around if we're going to score more runs. While .900 OPS guys don't grow on trees, they aren't impossible to find either. But this also means no Juan Castro Wayne. You can't give up outs. A .350 OPS middle infielder who works the count and gets your big guys more at bats is valuable. You can win a lot of games by scoring 100 runs more than your opponents, but you have to be a well rounded team to do that. We've got a long ways to go and I don't think anybody on the roster can be considered untouchable in the right deal.