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Thread: The Reds need more power, right?

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    The Reds need more power, right?

    A sentiment that I've seen expressed a number of times is that the Reds are running low on power, practically precluding any trade of Dunn or Junior. I don't disagree with the underlying premise that the Reds have less power than they've had in the past and that swapping out Dunn/Jr for a Denorfia type would hurt the offense. However, I wanted to point out that power is often thought of too simply. Let's look at a team with 4 guys who have hit more than 10 homers, yet have scored 50 more runs than the Reds. In fact, they have hit 142 HR, 28th in the majors to the Reds 217, 3rd in the majors. Here are the 8 guys in their lineup with 300+ PA (in descending PA order):

    1) Morneau: .321/.376/.560 - 34 HR, 129 RBI
    2) Castillo: .295/.356/.369
    3) Cuddyer: .282/.360/.504 - 24 HR, 108 RBI
    4) Hunter .278/.336/.486 - 30 HR, 96 RBI
    5) Mauer: .346/.449/.505 - 13 HR, 84 RBI
    6) Punto: .292/.355/.376
    7) White: .246/.276/.365
    8) Bartlett: .307/.365/.392

    Team:
    Avg: .287 - 1st in MLB (Reds .257 - 29th)
    OBP: .347 - 6th in MLB (Reds .336 - 16th)
    SLG: .425 - 17th in MLB (Reds .432 - 13th)

    So, the Twins and Reds have virtually identicaly OPS' but the Twins have scored 50 more runs. A few points here:

    - You don't have to hit tons of homers to have a decent SLG%. The SLG% of a guy who goes 2-4 with 2 singles is .500. Adam Dunn was outslugged by Michael Cuddyer.
    - You need both OBP and SLG to score runs. A walk and a single can mean 4 total bases advanced even though it doesn't show up in the SLG%.
    - The Reds don't have a front line hitter. Yes, I know Dunn is productive. But despite the HR totals, there's A LOT more value in what Morneau has done that what Dunn has in 2006.
    - Joe Mauer is awesome.

    Now, I know we don't have a Johann Santana, a Joe Nathan, Liriano, Neshak, etc. Our run prevention is WAY behind the Twins and we have a long way to go before Krivksy's model is realized. However, despite the perception, the Twins offense scores runs.

    We could subtract Dunn's HR from the lineup and still out homer the Twins. We need better hitters all around if we're going to score more runs. While .900 OPS guys don't grow on trees, they aren't impossible to find either. But this also means no Juan Castro Wayne. You can't give up outs. A .350 OPS middle infielder who works the count and gets your big guys more at bats is valuable. You can win a lot of games by scoring 100 runs more than your opponents, but you have to be a well rounded team to do that. We've got a long ways to go and I don't think anybody on the roster can be considered untouchable in the right deal.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-01-2006 at 06:31 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds need more power, right?

    I've been beating the more power drum so I'll respond. What I want isn't really so different. When I look at the MIN team you show above I see 4 guys with a slugging % of .475 or higher. As the Reds are currently constructed there are only 3 who are reasonably certain for that next year Dunn, Griffey, and Edwin. Not sure about everyone else, but my calls for power have been for one more guy who is fairly certain to slug .450. I don't think you can count on the catchers, Phillips slugged barely over .400 in AAA in 2005, Hat has slugged less than .400 in odd numbered years, Aurilia probably won't be back and Deno and Freel look like/are top of the order guys who will slug .400 tops. So the Reds do need more power to get to the Twins level. That has nothing to do with HR (but those are nice). If the other guys repeat some of the new levels achieved in 2006 it will simply be a bonus, but we can not go into 2007 counting on it.

    My first choice was to get a CF. The Reds need to move Griffey out of CF and OF is generally more likely to put up slugging. You and others have sold me on Deno though. I'm happy with him in CF and leading off. That means the other slugger needs to come from somewhere else. 2B, SS. Honestly, I think my first choice now would be for Votto to win 1B in Spring Training and be that 4th guy. I think Hat would be great off the bench with his consistently good at bats. That would allow the reds to pursue a SS without worrying whether he'll slug. In past year's the reds have had slugging at non-slugging positions (CF, SS) easing the need for slugging at 1B. Now the Reds do not have that with Deno in CF, Phillips at 2B and well, if the season started tomorrow, Castro at SS. If Castro isn't replaced with some one who slugs, this team will struggle unless Votto makes up the difference.

    If the Reds were put together the way the Twins are I wouldn't have a problem with next year's projected offense. As is there are too many question marks and not enough certain production.

  4. #3
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    Re: The Reds need more power, right?

    That has really nothing to do with the Twins' success, so much as good pitching has.
    I hope it's never sunny in Philly again.

  5. #4
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    The Reds need more power - yes

    An outfield of Griffey in LF, Deno in Cf & Freel in RF won't cut it.
    Griffey will play 120 games max, Freel should play 120 games max ( he wears down ) and Deno is unproven.

    Add a slugging RF . Use Deno/Freel in CF and backing up Griffey in LF /Freel backing up in IF also.

    ( this assumes Dunn is gone for the best pitcher we can get for him )

    In the IF you have:

    valentine/ross 'platoon'

    Votto at 1b ( Hatteberg as backup plan )

    Aurillia plays 120 games at 1b & 2b & backing up EE at 3b

    get a 1/2 way decent IF ( Giles? ) to play some 2b

    Phillips at SS

    EE at 3b

    This would provide:

    depth

    good mix of power & speed

    good mix of veterans & youth

    good defense

  6. #5
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    Re: The Reds need more power, right?

    I think we need lots of power to be able to compete in our ballpark. Even, if a miracle occured and we landed some quality starting pitching, it is hard to pitch in the GABP. Just to keep up, we need some boppers.

  7. #6
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds need more power, right?

    Quote Originally Posted by killuminati35 View Post
    I think we need lots of power to be able to compete in our ballpark. Even, if a miracle occured and we landed some quality starting pitching, it is hard to pitch in the GABP. Just to keep up, we need some boppers.
    The pitchers will decline as much as the hitters improve as a result of GABP.


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