Turn Off Ads?
Results 1 to 12 of 12

Thread: minors/majors batting average comparisons

  1. #1
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    10,796

    minors/majors batting average comparisons

    In a recent thread (Dump on Dunn) one poster wondered about Adam Dunn's minor league statistics and another poster surmised that Dunn was unlikely to hit over .280 in the majors. I decided to look up AD's minor league stats and noticed that he batted .304 in the minors. Well if a player hits .304 in the minors is .280 a reasonable expectation for the majors? I had no idea. So I decided to look up players that are comparable to Dunn to see how they performed. Not knowing exactly which players were comparable I simply settled on comparing AD to the top five home run hitters in each league. This seemed reasonable. Only batting average was looked at. The minor league numbers were taken from baseballcube.com and the major league numbers were taken from cnnsi.com. Not being well-versed in statistics I am not drawing any conclusions, but merely posting the results found.

    Player: MinBA MajBA Difference
    Pujols .314 .332 +.018
    Soriano .270 .280 +.010
    Howard .299 .304 +.005
    Thomas .304 .305 +.001
    Hafner .297 .297 -----
    Berkman .308 .304 -.004
    Dye .292 .277 -.015
    Ortiz .310 .283 -.027
    Thome .316 .282 -.034
    Jones .302 .267 -.035
    Dunn .304 .245 -.059

    I apologize for not being able to line up the columns better.
    Last edited by texasdave; 10-05-2006 at 01:07 PM.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member Z-Fly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    501

    Re: minors/majors batting average comparisons

    Good post. Very Intresting.
    WHEN DOES IT STOP!?!?

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Posts
    7,639

    Re: minors/majors batting average comparisons

    This has a debate on BA importance written all over it.
    "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill

  5. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    The Bush Leagues
    Posts
    9,115

    Re: minors/majors batting average comparisons

    Strikes me that lefthanders have a bigger problem.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  6. #5
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Brownsburg, Indiana
    Posts
    15,268

    Re: minors/majors batting average comparisons

    Nice post, Rojo. Interesting stuff.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
    Fame is man given: be thankful.
    Conceit is self given: be careful.

    John Wooden

  7. #6
    Member Crosley68's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2000
    Location
    West Virginia
    Posts
    955

    Re: minors/majors batting average comparisons

    I noticed that too Rojo......TexasDave thanks for the info...could you add ops to the chart?
    Let's play two!!!

  8. #7
    Plan to be spontaneous Jefferson24's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Illinios
    Posts
    1,199

    Re: minors/majors batting average comparisons

    It's my opinion that batters all adjust differently to the jump up to the majors, some better than others. I think your info suggests just that.

    Something to consider is the coaching at the big league level. A player may find that they really connect well with a major's hitting coach and are able to take and apply the instruction and that may reflect in a better average. Better coaching equals better hitting.

    Some players may not be as willing or able to adjust their swing or their patience at the plate and that will almost always reflect a lower batting average. One thing to remember is that as the pitching gets better the hitter must be willing to adjust accordingly. They aren't going to get near as many "mistakes" to hit in the majors, as they will see in the minors.

    The thing with Dunn is that he swings one way and that way is all out. I don't see him adjusting his swing based on the count, runners on or off, righty/lefty, or anything else for that matter. It's that lack of adjustment that results in his low average and high strikeouts. But it's also that lack of adjustment that results in 40 hr seasons. My guess is that if he were to adjust more he would probably give up some power (which I would be quite happy with if it resulted in a higher BA)
    We only live in patches. - H. G. Wells

  9. #8
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    10,796

    Re: minors/majors batting average comparisons

    Quote Originally Posted by Crosley68 View Post
    I noticed that too Rojo......TexasDave thanks for the info...could you add ops to the chart?
    Player: MinOPS MajOPS Difference
    Pujols .921 1.047 +.126
    Soriano .742 .836 +.094
    Howard .933 1.024 +.091
    Hafner .920 .984 +.064
    Thome .917 .974 +.057
    Thomas .947 .990 +.043
    Ortiz .912 .924 +.012
    Berkman .975 .983 +.008
    Dye .826 .825 -.001
    Dunn .950 .892 -.058
    Jones .932 .850 -.082

    This was done sort of hastily, but I am pretty confident the numbers and math are correct.

  10. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    64

    Re: minors/majors batting average comparisons

    Out of curiosity, do you know whether or not Dunn struck out as much in the minors? They say one of the biggest things for young hitters to adjust to in the big leagues is the variation in strike zone in the minor versus major league level. It is very unusual to find a player who walks AND strikes out as often as Dunn does.

  11. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    SE Of the NC Blue Ridge Mtns.
    Posts
    1,462

    Re: minors/majors batting average comparisons

    Hmm. Has he maxed out his potential?? I'd hope not, but that seems to suggest that maybe he has or maybe he doesn't care.
    I'm East of you. Be very very worried. Not quite OBX. But, be worried.

  12. #11
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    The Bush Leagues
    Posts
    9,115

    Re: minors/majors batting average comparisons

    My guess is lefty batters don't really see good leftie pitchers til they hit the bigs.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  13. #12
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    10,796

    Re: minors/majors batting average comparisons

    I hate to stir up the pot but did anyone besides myself notice that the two players who finished on the bottom of both lists are the two players on this list who are often said to be not the hardest of workers in perfecting their craft? Maybe, just maybe, Joe Fan isn't as dumb or uninformed as the people who defend such players by stating that Joe Fan has no way of knowing how hard such players work. You know, Joe Fan isn't 'inside' the game so how could they possibly know? Or maybe it's just coincidence. Something to think about though.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25