In a recent thread (Dump on Dunn) one poster wondered about Adam Dunn's minor league statistics and another poster surmised that Dunn was unlikely to hit over .280 in the majors. I decided to look up AD's minor league stats and noticed that he batted .304 in the minors. Well if a player hits .304 in the minors is .280 a reasonable expectation for the majors? I had no idea. So I decided to look up players that are comparable to Dunn to see how they performed. Not knowing exactly which players were comparable I simply settled on comparing AD to the top five home run hitters in each league. This seemed reasonable. Only batting average was looked at. The minor league numbers were taken from baseballcube.com and the major league numbers were taken from cnnsi.com. Not being well-versed in statistics I am not drawing any conclusions, but merely posting the results found.
Player: MinBA MajBA Difference
Pujols .314 .332 +.018
Soriano .270 .280 +.010
Howard .299 .304 +.005
Thomas .304 .305 +.001
Hafner .297 .297 -----
Berkman .308 .304 -.004
Dye .292 .277 -.015
Ortiz .310 .283 -.027
Thome .316 .282 -.034
Jones .302 .267 -.035
Dunn .304 .245 -.059
I apologize for not being able to line up the columns better.