“I’m a normal guy blessed with the ability to hit a baseball.” - Sean Casey
I think your undervaluing Arroyo. He is really good trade bait for a small market team, based on his low salary. If they need more though, we could easily throw in another pitcher or 2 to make the deal. Maybe Darrell Thomson and Sam Leclure?
Why trade Arroyo for hitting? We arent the Twins with pitching coming out the wazoo! We need to build around Harang and Arroyo not dismantle it. We saw how far just offense could carry us the past 3 years. We need 1 more good/great starter and wed be IN THE PLAYOFFS not on the outside looking in, IMO. Unless youre getting a "too good to be true" offer for Arroyo he wouldn't be going anywhere for me. Crawford doesnt do enough to help the offense for one of our "aces".
Seems like everybody likes the idea of sell high / buy low until you realize that selling high means trading a good player. You have to have in your judgement that a player has peaked. I don't think Arroyo will ever be better or cheaper than he is right now. Unless you honestly think that the Reds could be in the World Series in a year, it maxes sense to get the most value out of Arroyo as possible.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-06-2006 at 12:52 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Any offseason plan that does not include getting rid of Jr. and Milton is crazy. They have to go. I would also demand that Dunn drop 50 lbs. and move to 1b. After that, I would then address pitching and 2b/SS.
It seems that Crawford is the hot pick and would cost a bundle. Given the Reds need for Outfield depth but lack of players to move while staying in short and long term contention, if an outfielder from Tampa/ Tampa Bay/St. Pete/ Team Clark Rays/Devil Rays was the goal, the Reds would be better served targeting Baldelli or Gomes. Both are potentially undervalued at this time.
I think the Reds should target Ray Durham to play second for 2 years at 11 million (he made 5mil this year). He is coming off one of, if not, his best offensive years and despite being in his mid-30's has not shown much of decline in his range factor.
There that's a start with what is there. The alternative is to blow things up ala Florida and move Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, Cormier. Get as many prospects as possible and install them.
Rotation (Plan to add arms in trade, move up Cueto in July)
Lohse (if takes lowball offer)
Weathers (expect to move at deadline)
Schoenwiess (closer but move at deadline)
This roster would also be affected by who came in the blowup. any further vets who could be moved at the deadline would be. Be pleased if get to 60 wins in year one.
So far I think this administration is unlikely to blow things up because they are trying to win now. I don't think they will move Dunn unless it improves the team's ablility to win now. Right now the offense was worse down the stretch then the pitching. They can afford to dump offense for a starter and a prospect unless that offense is replaced eslewhere and Carlos Lee isn't coming to Cincy.
Last edited by klw; 10-06-2006 at 01:30 PM. Reason: Add more
We shouldnt even be talking about arroyo for crawford, cause it would never happen. If you really want crawford your giving up bailey. We need to keep arroyo and harang. Keep Dunn, we need his bat whether you like him or not. Add a starter, most likely either wolf, padilla or meche. Add an OF like Hunter, put freel/aurilla at second. And we make the playoffs. We were only a couple of games away this year. If hatte struggles bring up voto, as soon as a starter goes down bring up bailey.
Jimmy Haynes has sucked, will suck, and always will suck. Arroyo's season this year alone blows Haynes out of the water. And again We are not the Twins we dont have pitching spects out the ying yang. If you trade Arroyo you better get pitching depth not more offense. We have seen for the past 3-4 years what no pitching and all hitting gets you... Nowhere.
I'm tired of short term fixes and I'm willing to suffer a couple bad seasons for the promise of a brighter future.
I love the idea of Dunn for Santana and Aybar. I'm not sure the Angels would play along though. If they would, do it in a heartbeat. If they wouldn't send Aybar over, try to get a McPhereson thrown in the deal. He had loads of potential, but couldn't stay healthy. He would be worth taking a risk on and hope he puts up a B.P. type season.
Would the Tigers trade Zumaya and Thames for Dunn? Would you? That would give the Reds a closer and replacement in LF, who put up some good numbers.
I also like the idea of signing Hunter to play CF. He has grerat range, some pop, and speed. He may be too costly though for the production.
I'm all for trading LaRue and Milton for a bag of balls, but would anyone want them. if we packaged Deno with Larue, maybe we could get something in return without having to eat all of LaRue's salary. With Deno gone, sign a Dave Roberts to platoon with Freel in RF. This gives you a lefty/righty with speed at the top of the order.
Try and sign another starter, whether it be Ohka or Padilla. I like either of them as #4's. I don't think you will find a taker on Milton, so make him #5 starter, giving the Reds one lefty in the rotation.
I would look at Baez as a closer. If he doesn't work, I would take a look at Lohse. He throws hard and has good stuff. I'm not sure he has the mentality of a closer, but it could work. The pickings are slim on the closer FA wire, so trying to find one from within may have to happen.
Finally, I would pickup Aurilia's contract. He was one of out more productive hitters throughout the season.