Misconceptions about the Angels

[mth123]

The Angels are suggested frequently on this board as trade partners. Usually its Dunn and/or some other players for some combination of Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, Bartolo Colon, John Lackey, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, Scott Shields, Nick Adenhardt, Macier Izturis, Casey Kotchman, Joe Saunders, the Rally Monkey or Gene Autry’s ghost. This all probably stems from the Angels shopping for a bat during the season in an effort to contend. It’s the off-season now and conditions have changed making a trade unlikely IMO.

Let's start with the pitchers. Colon is trying to rehab a partially torn Rotator Cuff (w/o surgery I believe) and is expensive. He won’t throw until Christmas at the earliest. The Reds don’t want him and the Angels don’t want to count on him. That makes the Angel rotation Lackey, Santana, Kelvim Escobar, Weaver and Saunders. It’s a good rotation top to bottom, but there are 5 guys for 5 spots. I don’t see them trading one to create a hole. As for Shields, he is the top set-up guy for F-Rod. Pitching is a major strength in Anaheim, I don’t see them trading it if they don’t have to (that includes Adenhardt).

As for the players, a changing of the guard is happening now and these young players are taking over. Higher priced older guys will be leaving as Free Agents making spots for the young players to play and creating the need for the Angels to keep them. Adam Kennedy is a Free Agent and Kendick will take his spot. Darin Erstad also comes off the books making Kotchman the man at 1B. Tim Salmon is retiring which also creates some playflex. Dallas McPherson has had some trouble at 3B so Izturis and Aybar are probably going to stick around as insurance for him and a potential wash-out from Kendrick. McPherson could also be moved to 1B if Kotchman washes out, making one of these guys a regular. Wood is the long-term answer at 3B anyway but he is likely still a year away. I believe Aybar is viewed as the future at SS. Orlando Cabrera is 31 and has 2 years left on his deal. I could see him being moved later this year or after 2007 to make a spot for Aybar, to save $, to get something they need, and to get younger. The Angels will be happy to spot Aybar in for now IMO.

What makes the most sense for Anaheim is to use the payflex from the players leaving to sign a big bat. The owner has shown a pattern of preferring south of the border types and it seems to be the perfect place for Soriano or Carlos Lee. They can evaluate where they are until the all star break and then decide if they need to trade any of these guys to fill holes. If they do use these guys to make a deal, it will likely be for a long-term answer in CF (Vernon Wells anyone?) that can add offense. Chone Figgins can be moved around to fill any holes created. The Reds don't really have anything that is significantly better than what they have or can buy on the market so why would they trade a bunch of young cheap guys when they don't need to? The Reds don't have the CF they may be looking for.

[Natty Redlocks]

The Angels are suggested frequently on this board as trade partners. Usually its Dunn and/or some other players for some combination of Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, Bartolo Colon, John Lackey, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, Scott Shields, Nick Adenhardt, Macier Izturis, Casey Kotchman, Joe Saunders, the Rally Monkey or Gene Autry’s ghost. This all probably stems from the Angels shopping for a bat during the season in an effort to contend. It’s the off-season now and conditions have changed making a trade unlikely IMO.

Let's start with the pitchers. Colon is trying to rehab a partially torn Rotator Cuff (w/o surgery I believe) and is expensive. He won’t throw until Christmas at the earliest. The Reds don’t want him and the Angels don’t want to count on him. That makes the Angel rotation Lackey, Santana, Kelvim Escobar, Weaver and Saunders. It’s a good rotation top to bottom, but there are 5 guys for 5 spots. I don’t see them trading one to create a hole. As for Shields, he is the top set-up guy for F-Rod. Pitching is a major strength in Anaheim, I don’t see them trading it if they don’t have to (that includes Adenhardt).

As for the players, a changing of the guard is happening now and these young players are taking over. Higher priced older guys will be leaving as Free Agents making spots for the young players to play and creating the need for the Angels to keep them. Adam Kennedy is a Free Agent and Kendick will take his spot. Darin Erstad also comes off the books making Kotchman the man at 1B. Tim Salmon is retiring which also creates some playflex. Dallas McPherson has had some trouble at 3B so Izturis and Aybar are probably going to stick around as insurance for him and a potential wash-out from Kendrick. McPherson could also be moved to 1B if Kotchman washes out, making one of these guys a regular. Wood is the long-term answer at 3B anyway but he is likely still a year away. I believe Aybar is viewed as the future at SS. Orlando Cabrera is 31 and has 2 years left on his deal. I could see him being moved later this year or after 2007 to make a spot for Aybar, to save $, to get something they need, and to get younger. The Angels will be happy to spot Aybar in for now IMO.

What makes the most sense for Anaheim is to use the payflex from the players leaving to sign a big bat. The owner has shown a pattern of preferring south of the border types and it seems to be the perfect place for Soriano or Carlos Lee. They can evaluate where they are until the all star break and then decide if they need to trade any of these guys to fill holes. If they do use these guys to make a deal, it will likely be for a long-term answer in CF (Vernon Wells anyone?) that can add offense. Chone Figgins can be moved around to fill any holes created. The Reds don't really have anything that is significantly better than what they have or can buy on the market so why would they trade a bunch of young cheap guys when they don't need to? The Reds don't have the CF they may be looking for.

You forgot Rivera. Heh heh.

I think Dunn's OBP and the fact that he's a lefty *should* make him a reasonably attractive target for them, though I don't know that their front office values OBP the way a lot of fans do, and I agree he's probably nowhere near their first choice. At any rate, it's pretty funny to see what people think they'd give up for Dunn. I could see them signing Nomar first, for sure.

[Krusty]

Honestly, if I'm the Angels I keep the kids and starting pitchers and spend some dollars to sign either Soriano or Lee to provide protection for Guerrero in the lineup.

[redsfanmia]

I hate to bring this up but the Angels are really attempting to get the Latino fans and like bringing in Latino players. If they are going to trade for or sign a big time bat its going to be a Latino player. Just my opinion.

[RedsManRick]

If the Yanks decide they do want to trade ARod, I could see the Angels being the first to pick up the phone.

[Spitball]

Back in early September, I suggested Dunn for Santana, Aybar, and others. My suggestion heavily favored the Reds, but if anyone is going to pry Dunn away, I want them to overpay. Also, if he is to be traded, I want the trade to greatly improve the Reds.

...They need to acquire at least a starting pitcher, a quality shortstop, and a potential dominant bullpen arm. I mentioned on another thread, but I'd love to see him dealt to the Angels for Santana, Aybar, Figgins, and Shields. That would fill multiple holes.

I don't think the Angels would really throw in both Figgins and Shields, but I do think Santana, Aybar, and a third player would be possible.

That makes the Angel rotation Lackey, Santana, Kelvim Escobar, Weaver and Saunders. It’s a good rotation top to bottom, but there are 5 guys for 5 spots. I don’t see them trading one to create a hole

.

The Angels and southern California have been traditionally attractive to free agents. They've signed Colon, Escobar, Guerrero, Cabrera, and others in recent years. If they choose to go after a starter, Santana might be available.

I believe Aybar is viewed as the future at SS.

Except he is rated behind the Angels' top prospect, shortstop Brandon Wood.

Orlando Cabrera is 31 and has 2 years left on his deal. I could see him being moved later this year or after 2007 to make a spot for Aybar, to save $, to get something they need, and to get younger.

Except the Red Sox might be the only buyer with the need and the money. If the Sox sign Lugo, I don't see a market for Cabrera and his contract.

[blumj]

If the Sox sign Lugo, I don't see a market for Cabrera and his contract.

I don't think the Red Sox would want Cabrera back anyway. Lots of rumors there.

[Spitball]

I don't think the Red Sox would want Cabrera back anyway. Lots of rumors there.

Right, and there are not likely to be any other takers for that contract...Hence, the Angels are stuck with Cabrera and his contract...Hence, they should move Aybar and wait on the younger Wood to replace Cabrera when the contract is up.

[Topcat]

Does Arte want to go into next season with a bunch of kids who will have growing pains thru out the next few years or does Arte want to make a serious run at the title? That is the number 1 factor when it comes to dealing there richness of prospects.

[mth123]

Right, and there are not likely to be any other takers for that contract...Hence, the Angels are stuck with Cabrera and his contract...Hence, they should move Aybar and wait on the younger Wood to replace Cabrera when the contract is up.

Wood's future is at 3B not SS. Players like him are left at SS in the minors as long as possible and only moved to 3B when on the verge of the majors. The theory is if you can play SS, then 3B won't be a problem.

As for Aybar and Cabrera (and Izturis) , I don't see any of the 3 going until McPerson and Kendrick establish themselves at 2B and 3B in 2007. Once that happens there will only be a year left on Cabrera's deal. Middle IF is a valued and precious commodity in baseball and the market for Cabrera will be there. If Cabrera was on Cincy he'd be the 3rd best player behind Dunn and EdE and I don't see his contract as that big of an obstacle. He would be an upgrade or a successor to an older player in a number of places.

Look I agree that the Angels would be a desirable target. They have good young talent out the ying-yang. I just don't see them trading it for anything the Reds have. If the Angels whiff in free Agency on a big bat then maybe it would change, but they would probably have other targets in Mind (A-Rod?).

[Spitball]

Wood's future is at 3B not SS. Players like him are left at SS in the minors as long as possible and only moved to 3B when on the verge of the majors. The theory is if you can play SS, then 3B won't be a problem.

Wood will be moved if Cabrera or Aybar is blocking his way at shortstop. Otherwise, he is capable of playing shortstop in the big leagues. He doesn't have the range of Aybar, but he is a surprisingly smooth and fluid fielder. I watched him several times this summer here in Little Rock and was impressed with his defensive actions.

As for Aybar and Cabrera (and Izturis) , I don't see any of the 3 going until McPerson and Kendrick establish themselves at 2B and 3B in 2007.

See, I see this as a large problem for the Angels. Stoneman wants to build a strong farm system, but he goes out and signs free agents (see Cabrera and Jeff Weaver) to block their chances to play.

Once that happens there will only be a year left on Cabrera's deal. Middle IF is a valued and precious commodity in baseball and the market for Cabrera will be there.

Cabrera's deal calls for $7.5 million in 2007 and $9 million in 2008. Which team will want a 33-34 year old shortstop making that kind of money? And, if he reverts back to the Cabrera of 2005 (.674 OPS), he is untradeable.

If Cabrera was on Cincy he'd be the 3rd best player behind Dunn and EdE and I don't see his contract as that big of an obstacle. He would be an upgrade or a successor to an older player in a number of places.

Third best? Hmmm...He has a career .720 OPS.

[mth123]

Wood will be moved if Cabrera or Aybar is blocking his way at shortstop. Otherwise, he is capable of playing shortstop in the big leagues. He doesn't have the range of Aybar, but he is a surprisingly smooth and fluid fielder. I watched him several times this summer here in Little Rock and was impressed with his defensive actions.



See, I see this as a large problem for the Angels. Stoneman wants to build a strong farm system, but he goes out and signs free agents (see Cabrera and Jeff Weaver) to block their chances to play.




Cabrera's deal calls for $7.5 million in 2007 and $9 million in 2008. Which team will want a 33-34 year old shortstop making that kind of money? And, if he reverts back to the Cabrera of 2005 (.674 OPS), he is untradeable.




Third best? Hmmm...He has a career .720 OPS.

1. As for Wood, I've never seen him play, just read the reports and such so I'll have to take your word for it. I just can't see them leaving Wood at SS when he has that bat to cover third and they have another highly regarded player that projects as a plus defender to play SS.

2. I agree about the vets, but with many of the old guard leaving I think that is changing.

3. As far as Cabrera goes, he is a good defensive SS who has hit (although you correctly point out how much he has slipped since arriving in LA). His career OPS is tarnished by a couple of early years (1999 and 2000) in Montreal. With all the question marks around the diamond in Cincy he would still be the 3rd best position player. In Cincy he'd probably still OPS about .750. (I'm not pushing for the Reds to get him BTW.) The fact he has slipped is exactly why they keep the other guys. I guess if McPherson turns into a 30 HR guy that could change because they won't need Wood at 3B.

He (Cabrera) is pricey, but IMO he'll be the one they trade. They may need to eat a some salary to do it, but if they do he'll get them something back to fill a minor role (LOOGY, Middle releiver, etc.) or a middling prospect. He won't get a major return though. By the time they get around to it he'll be in the last year of that contract anyway. There are teams looking for Middle IF help all the time and there are a lot worse options at SS.

The point is they are not going to package enough guys to get Adam Dunn. They may end-up trading one or even two, but the Reds can not afford to trade Dunn for that. Even if the Angels do end up trading some it may not be this off-season. They may wait to see how things pan out. Dunn would be far from there first choice anyway and they have enough money to add the bat they need in Free Agency w/o having to trade any of these guys. If they don't come away with Soriano or Lee I'll be quite surprised. The only motivation they have to go another route is to make a splash with a big bat. If they sign Soriano they have done that anyway (Lee not so much). I'm not sure Dunn is a big splash from a PR perspective anyway.