Thoughts on Barry Zito...

[SultanOfSwing]

I see a lot of love for Zito in the baseball world and especially on this board. It seems everyone wants to sign him as a FA. Some may say we can't afford him but would still love to have him if we could. I just don't get it. Looking at his statistics he seems pretty average.

Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
 2000 22 OAK AL   7   4  14  14   1   1   0  0   92.7   64   30   28   6   45   78   2   2   376   2   0  2.72  4.72  174 1.176 RoY-6
 2001 23 OAK AL  17   8  35  35   3   2   0  0  214.3  184   92   83  18   80  205  13   6   902   0   1  3.49  4.35  125 1.232 MVP-21
 2002 24 OAK AL  23   5  35  35   1   0   0  0  229.3  182   79   70  24   78  182   9   2   939   2   1  2.75  4.65  169 1.134 MVP-13,CYA-1,AS
 2003 25 OAK AL  14  12  35  35   4   1   0  0  231.7  186   98   85  19   88  146   6   4   957   3   0  3.30  4.26  129 1.183 AS
 2004 26 OAK AL  11  11  34  34   0   0   0  0  213.0  216  116  106  28   81  163   9   4   926   2   1  4.48  4.68  105 1.394
 2005 27 OAK AL  14  13  35  35   0   0   0  0  228.3  185  106   98  26   89  171  13   4   953   0   0  3.86  4.49  116 1.200
 2006 28 OAK AL  16  10  34  34   0   0   0  0  221.0  211   99   94  27   99  151  13   4   945   5   2  3.83  4.42  116 1.403 AS

Compare that to Harang:

Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
 2002 24 OAK AL   5   4  16  15   0   0   0  0   78.3   78   44   42   7   45   64   3   1   354   2   0  4.83  4.65   96 1.570
 2003 25 TOT      5   6  16  15   0   0   1  0   76.3   89   47   45  11   19   42   1   3   327   0   1  5.31  4.28   81 1.415
         OAK AL   1   3   7   6   0   0   1  0   30.3   41   19   18   5    9   16   0   0   136   0   1  5.34  4.26   80 1.648
         CIN NL   4   3   9   9   0   0   0  0   46.0   48   28   27   6   10   26   1   3   191   0   0  5.28  4.29   81 1.261
 2004 26 CIN NL  10   9  28  28   1   1   0  0  161.0  177   90   87  26   53  125   5   7   711   5   0  4.86  4.01   82 1.429
 2005 27 CIN NL  11  13  32  32   1   0   0  0  211.7  217   93   90  22   51  163   8   6   887   3   0  3.83  4.44  116 1.266
 2006 28 CIN NL  16  11  36  35   6   2   0  0  234.3  242  109   98  28   56  216   8   6   993   8   1  3.76  4.81  128 1.272

Zito pitches in pitchers park. He walks more. He gives up just as many HRs. His ERA is higher, his WHIP is higher. He gets better defense. His bullpen is better. He gets better run support. He pitches fewer innings. He hasn't had a CG in 3 years. It just seems to go on and on. The only thing in favor of Zito is that he pitches in the AL; but he pitches in the weakest AL division.

Am I missing something here? What makes Zito so desirable? What makes him worth even close to that money? IMO, throw out 2002 and probably the first 2 years, and Zito is a #2 or #3 starter. Thoughts?...

[blumj]

200+ IP for 6 straight years and he's still only 28 years old. And, yes, that's most of the attraction. Almost no one does that. Does that make him worth the contract he'll probably get? Compared to what else is out there on the free agent market, if he can keep doing that, maybe.

[Johnny Footstool]

In Zito's favor:
A - He's a lefty who can strike batters out.
B - He's only 28 years old.
C - He wouldn't cost anything in terms of talent (a second-round draft pick isn't that big of a deal). He only costs money.

[SultanOfSwing]

151 SO doesn't blow me away.
He is the same age as Harang and just little bit younger than Arroyo.

The only advantages I can find are he is a LHP and he is in the AL. I just don't see it past that, especially for the money. It seems as though he get over-rated because of 2002 and the fact that the A's put him at the front of their rotation.

[joshnky]

151 SO doesn't blow me away.
He is the same age as Harang and just little bit younger than Arroyo.

The only advantages I can find are he is a LHP and he is in the AL. I just don't see it past that, especially for the money. It seems as though he get over-rated because of 2003 and the fact that the A's put him at the front of their rotation.

I totally agree and I think that many others will agree with your sentiment as well. However, this is very market driven and compared to the rest of the free agent market he is certainly the best when you consider his age. Given the market and the dearth of good pitching across the league a solid ace like Zito will generate these reactions.

[TeamSelig]

I'd like to have him, but I think the price tag will be way too high. He'll probably end up with the Yankees.

Harang, Arroyo, and Zito would be a nice front of a rotation though.

[SultanOfSwing]

I'd like to have him, but I think the price tag will be way too high. He'll probably end up with the Yankees.

Harang, Arroyo, and Zito would be a nice front of a rotation though.

BTW, I don't think Zito is going to NY or Boston. Both the Yankees and Mets have publicly stated they have no interest in signing Zito this off-season. I have a feeling Boston won't pursue him either.

[blumj]

BTW, I don't think Zito is going to NY or Boston. Both the Yankees and Mets have publicly stated they have no interest in signing Zito this off-season. I have a feeling Boston won't pursue him either.

You can't believe what teams say about what players they will pursue. FWIW, I have no idea what Boston will do, and they're not going to tell us either.

[TeamSelig]

Yanks desperately need pitching, and they don't really have anything to trade, and Zito is the best pitcher on the market this year so I figured they'd target him.

But who knows

Lets just hope that the Cards or Astros don't sign him.

[Natty Redlocks]

151 SO doesn't blow me away.
He is the same age as Harang and just little bit younger than Arroyo.

The only advantages I can find are he is a LHP and he is in the AL. I just don't see it past that, especially for the money. It seems as though he get over-rated because of 2003 and the fact that the A's put him at the front of their rotation.

One big advantage is that he never ever misses a start. If I'm not mistaken, he's never missed a single one his entire career. I'd rather "overpay" for a dependable innings eater than unreliable fireballers like Wood or Burnett. That's one great thing about Harang and Arroyo too, though.

[WMR]

I'd love to have him. Everything I've seen/read/heard about the guy tells me he's West coast till he dies sort of guy...

Can't imagine the Reds offering him anything that he couldn't get from a half dozen or so teams out west.

[RedsManRick]

Career GB/FB: 0.87.

Oakland is not just a pitchers park because of it's wall distances, but because it has a TON of fall ground. For a flyball pitcher like Zito, this is a major advantage. Not only will he give up more homers in GABP, but he'll lose outs that he would've gotten in Oakland in foul ground.

Would I want Barry Zito on my staff? Without question, yes. Do I think it would be prudent for the Reds to go give Barry Zito 15 Mil per and make him our ace of the future? No way. Unfortunately, somebody is going to do just that.