Next Year's Salary

[camisadelgolf]

I'm sure there have been plenty of threads about this, so I apologize if this is redundant. From what I hear, we can expect the Reds to have about $70-$75 million for the salary next year.

Here are the estimates I've found for next year's players. If any of it is inaccurate, please let me know.

5.200 Jason LaRue
1.325 Javier Valentin
~0.900 David Ross (arbitration eligible)
1.500 Scott Hatteberg
~0.400 Brandon Phillips (pre-arbitration)
~0.400 Edwin Encarnacion (pre-arbitration)
0.925 Juan Castro
10.500 Adam Dunn
~9.300 Ken Griffey, Jr. (or $12.5 million if you include the deferred portion)
1.700 Ryan Freel
~0.400 Chris Denorfia (pre-arbitration)

~6.000 Aaron Harang (arbitration eligible)
3.800 Bronson Arroyo
~4.000 Kyle Lohse (arbitration eligible)
9.000 Eric Milton
~0.400 Elizardo Ramirez (pre-arbitration)
~0.400 Brandon Claussen (pre-arbitration)
2.250 Rheal Cormier
~0.400 Gary Majewski (pre-arbitration)
~0.400 Matt Belisle (pre-arbitration)
~0.400 Todd Coffey (pre-arbitration)
~0.400 Bill Bray (pre-arbitration)

0.850 Paul Wilson's buyout
+2.000 if Rich Aurilia accepts the option

That's about 60-65 million dollars already tied up in 22 players. That tells me that about $10 million can be used for a couple utility players and a starting pitcher. Does that sound realistic?

[redsfan30]

From what I've seen, that sounds about right.

[dunner13]

if we can dump larue or milton or trade dunn for a top starter who makes less that would quickly free up some money.

[tomred]

The question I have if the Reds made money this year with a 65 plus millon payroll and they are getting 10 millon more from tv why should payroll not be 80 millon plus are they really whating to win

[ChatterRed]

They need to dump Junior, Dunn, Milton, and LaRue and free up about 30-some million.

[Highlifeman21]

They need to dump Junior, Dunn, Milton, and LaRue and free up about 30-some million.

In order of appearance.... 10/5, we won't get what we want/need via trade for Dunn, no one wants him, and yes LaRue needs to go badly...

So, you got 1 out of 4 right. Junior isn't going anywhere, Dunn shouldn't go anywhere, Milton sucks so there's no market for him, and LaRue is the true definition of a salary dump.

Next.

[SultanOfSwing]

In order of appearance.... 10/5, we won't get what we want/need via trade for Dunn, no one wants him, and yes LaRue needs to go badly...

So, you got 1 out of 4 right. Junior isn't going anywhere, Dunn shouldn't go anywhere, Milton sucks so there's no market for him, and LaRue is the true definition of a salary dump.

Next.

I don't see why some believe Milton is worthless and untradeable. I can see many teams being interested in him, especially those in bigger ballparks. For instance: we trade Milton and $3-4 million to a team for a decent prospect or two or good young player with a little upside. Why wouldn't another team want that? They would pay Milton only $5-6 million and his contract comes off the books after 2007. You would be hard-pressed to find a similar value on the FA market, especially since this is Milton's contract year. And a FA would require a 2-3 year deal.

Some have also said that the Red's would have a hard time finding a replacement with the $5-6 million saved. This is true. But you must look at it from the whole. Now, instead of $10-15 million to spend, you have $15-21 million to spend. Now a big-time FA and some more looks a lot more realistic.

Just my two cents.

[Always Red]

I totally agree, Barney.

Milton's a decent pitcher if matched with the right park, for the right price.

The Reds problem is that they overpaid for him, and he's only a #3.5-4.5 type, and he's pitching in the launching pad.

The Reds other problem with Milty is that he is hurt. Teams that will want him (and they do exist, I think he would do great in Comerica or Petco, for example) will definitely want to see him pitch in spring training first, to be sure he's healthy.

[mth123]

I totally agree, Barney.

Milton's a decent pitcher if matched with the right park, for the right price.

The Reds problem is that they overpaid for him, and he's only a #3.5-4.5 type, and he's pitching in the launching pad.

The Reds other problem with Milty is that he is hurt. Teams that will want him (and they do exist, I think he would do great in Comerica or Petco, for example) will definitely want to see him pitch in spring training first, to be sure he's healthy.

Agree here. With the dearth of starting pitching, some team will want Milton if he shows he is healthy. If so, his value goes up as the season goes on and other teams continue to lose rotation pitchers to injury or meltdown. There is already a shortage. I keep him as a number 5 and as a place holder for Bailey. Nobody save the Angels and White Sox have a good number 5 anyway. As next season progresses, the Reds will be able to move him w/o eating any of the $, get a prospect or something of use, and slide Bailey into his spot.

It was a bad deal and he has not worked out here by any means. But he has value and it would be just as bad a move to throw that away for nothing, as some have suggested, as it would be/was to trade players for lesser value in return. Some contender with a revolving door of retreads filling in next season will pay for him. I suspect that the Reds may know this and, given Cast's comments about bringing in a winner, may be creating the budget with the thought that half of the contract will be off the books, even if he starts the year in a Reds uniform. No need to eat half the contract now and get a lesser talent return, when we can still move half the contract next season with a liklihood of a better talent return. Seems obvious to me.

[Highlifeman21]

I don't see why some believe Milton is worthless and untradeable. I can see many teams being interested in him, especially those in bigger ballparks. For instance: we trade Milton and $3-4 million to a team for a decent prospect or two or good young player with a little upside. Why wouldn't another team want that? They would pay Milton only $5-6 million and his contract comes off the books after 2007. You would be hard-pressed to find a similar value on the FA market, especially since this is Milton's contract year. And a FA would require a 2-3 year deal.

Some have also said that the Red's would have a hard time finding a replacement with the $5-6 million saved. This is true. But you must look at it from the whole. Now, instead of $10-15 million to spend, you have $15-21 million to spend. Now a big-time FA and some more looks a lot more realistic.

Just my two cents.

If we're sending Milton and some cash to offset his ridiculous contract, then what return can we honestly expect to receive in that trade? I don't see us getting back a player that can immediately make an impact for our club, but rather see us getting a fluff/filler type guy like a Hollandsworth or a last arm out of the bullpen type guy. I think Milton has more value to our team, than to salary dump him and get a warm body back in return.

If Milton comes to ST healthy, then maybe he might be able to be our #3, but right now I still cringe every time he gets the ball.

[terminator]

I think Milton has more value to our team, than to salary dump him and get a warm body back in return.

If Milton comes to ST healthy, then maybe he might be able to be our #3, but right now I still cringe every time he gets the ball.

Yes, given that he was decent in 2006 when not injured, given that we're going to pay half his salary anyway to get rid of him and given that we are currently short on good options beyond Harang and Arroyo, I'd just as soon keep him here in 2007 and hope he does well for us.

If Castellini is patient and gives Krivsky time to work on things, Krivsky will really have an opportunity to remake the team in his image over the next two to three years as Griffey, LaRue, Milton and Dunn's contracts expire. It will be interesting to see what Krivsky can do with the $25MM saved when Griffey, LaRue and Milton leave. (Dunn is more up in the air.)

The Reds biggest problem is that they have too many average and below average players. When you look at the list above, how many would other teams really want? Most would love to have Harang, Arroyo, EE and Dunn. Most wouldn't mind having Coffey, Bray, Majewski, Ross, Phillips, Belisle, Denorfia, and Freel, but they wouldn't jump up and down about them. Most wouldn't want or wouldn't want to pay for LaRue, Valentin, Hatteberg, Castro, Lohse, Ramirez, Claussen, and Cormier. Not that those guys are bad or couldn't have good years in 2007, but no other team would be excited about adding a Hatteburg or Valentin to their roster. And based on performance in light of salary, they wouldn't want Griffey. (I like him, but he is quite expensive for what he is now.)

[SultanOfSwing]

Most would love to have Harang, Arroyo, EE and Dunn. Most wouldn't mind having Coffey, Bray, Majewski, Ross, Phillips, Belisle, Denorfia, and Freel, but they wouldn't jump up and down about them. Most wouldn't want or wouldn't want to pay for LaRue, Valentin, Hatteberg, Castro, Lohse, Ramirez, Claussen, and Cormier.

I tend to disagree. From what I have seen and observed, Valentin seems to have pretty good value with other clubs. I also think Lohse and Cormier have some decent value. I know Ramirez is regarded very well. And I would definitely add Freel to that first list. He is the most coveted utility man in baseball.

[terminator]

I tend to disagree. From what I have seen and observed, Valentin seems to have pretty good value with other clubs. I also think Lohse and Cormier have some decent value. I know Ramirez is regarded very well. And I would definitely add Freel to that first list. He is the most coveted utility man in baseball.

Yes, I agree we could move a guy up or down the list a bit, but when it comes to players that other teams would really get excited about acquiring from us, the list does not include Lohse, Cormier, Valentin or Ramirez. Keep in mind that Lohse and Cormier came to us mid-season for very little and weren't lights out in any sense, so their value hasn't moved much. Ramirez is damaged goods to outsiders because of his injury. Valentin, while a nice pinch-hitter and backup catcher, is not a stand-out and equivalent players can be found pretty easily. And even if Freel is the best utility man in baseball, other teams don't get excited about acquiring super utility men.

My point is that those players are average and we need more above-average players on this team. I think we have only four players on this team who are widely regarded as "above average." I know we're not the Yankees and can't field an All Star team, but I think we need a few more reliable above average players (i.e. not hoping for above average career years from the likes of average players like Hatteberg and Ross). JMHO.

[camisadelgolf]

A lot of people would say Brandon Claussen still has a lot of upside, too.

[terminator]

I think Claussen has a lot of upside too, but I don't think he'd bring a lot because of the injury this year. Barring injury, I think he's going to be our #3 starter next year. He showed us what he could do in 2005 and his 4.20 ERA for that first full year was impressive.