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Thread: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

  1. #1
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    ....they wound up 22nd in the runs....749
    and finished 28th in batting average .257...
    and finished 29th in errors with 128....

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  3. #2
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    Wow, I didn't know we did that poorly in runs scored.

    Yep, we pretty much need everything. Wayne's got a big job to do.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  4. #3
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    ....they wound up 22nd in the runs....749
    and finished 28th in batting average .257...
    and finished 29th in errors with 128....
    First off comparing leagues is IMO a faulty tool, the AL has the DH which boosts their house numbers, and only Tampa finished lower then the Reds, the Reds still need offense true, but let's place the need in the proper context, the National League.

    BTW the Reds staff allowed 24% of their runs to two teams, the Brewers and the Cubs.

    They also scored 24% of their runs off of two teams (the Brewers and the Astros)

    The Reds tanked against the rest of the NL outside of their division

    Divison play

    425 RS / 405 RA

    46-38

    NL West and NL East

    251 RS / 308 RA

    28-35

    AL

    73 RS / 88 RA

    6-9

  5. #4
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    Re: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    First off comparing leagues is IMO a faulty tool,
    I certainly agree with this...but the Reds scored 922 runs last year. So comparing this, to last years, that is pathetic.

    IGNORE THIS POST. Incorrect.
    Last edited by TOBTTReds; 10-11-2006 at 12:02 PM.

  6. #5
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    I certainly agree with this...but the Reds scored 922 runs last year. So comparing this, to last years, that is pathetic.
    The Reds scored 820 Runs in 2005, they also had the doubles and HR record for the franchise in one season. They may have dropped 71 Runs on the offensive side but they also cut more then 80 off the defensive side.

  7. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    I certainly agree with this...but the Reds scored 922 runs last year. So comparing this, to last years, that is pathetic.
    You sure about that? Pretty sure it was only 820. We certainly produced less as an offense this year, but we also were a much better pitching team.

    2005
    RS: 820
    RA: 889
    Exp W-L: 75-87

    2006
    RS: 749
    RA: 801
    Exp W-L: 76-86

    So we scored 71 fewer runs, and allowed 88 fewer runs -- pretty much breaking even, arguably with a better salary distribution and stronger minor leagues, but with fewer assets in the majors. 6 teams in the NL allowed more runs than we did -- that's a marked improvement from our pitching staff. I do agree with the basic premise however, that we don't have any offensive cushion. We cannot afford to get worse offensively and we likely cannot expect the same level of contribution from Aurilia and Ross in particular. Given our park, I think we should be aiming for 800+ runs and 750- runs allowed. That distribution (800-750) would give us an Exp W-L of 86-76, in shooting distance of the wild card with luck.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #7
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    Re: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    The Reds scored 820 Runs in 2005, they also had the doubles and HR record for the franchise in one season. They may have dropped 71 Runs on the offensive side but they also cut more then 80 off the defensive side.
    My BAD! Going off memory doesn't always work. Good points.

    Did they hit 222 HR's last year? Why do I have the _22 number in my head?

    They did have 222 HR's. So I'm not completely off.
    Last edited by TOBTTReds; 10-11-2006 at 12:09 PM.

  9. #8
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    First off comparing leagues is IMO a faulty tool, the AL has the DH which boosts their house numbers, and only Tampa finished lower then the Reds, the Reds still need offense true, but let's place the need in the proper context, the National League.

    BTW the Reds staff allowed 24% of their runs to two teams, the Brewers and the Cubs.

    They also scored 24% of their runs off of two teams (the Brewers and the Astros)

    The Reds tanked against the rest of the NL outside of their division

    Divison play

    425 RS / 405 RA

    46-38

    NL West and NL East

    251 RS / 308 RA

    28-35

    AL

    73 RS / 88 RA

    6-9
    The Reds played, I believe, 35 games vs the Cubs and Milwaukee. Which is like what, roughly 22% of their season? 24% of their runs let up to those 2 teams isn't a huge outlier.

  10. #9
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    The Reds played, I believe, 35 games vs the Cubs and Milwaukee. Which is like what, roughly 22% of their season? 24% of their runs let up to those 2 teams isn't a huge outlier.
    Even when they are 14rh and 15th in the league in offense?

    The Cubs scored 14% of their runs against the Reds, they averaged 5.36 runs a game against the Reds and 4.24 against the rest of the league. You don't win letting the crappy teams beat up on your staff.

  11. #10
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    Re: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    Wow, it's so shocking that this Reds team ended the year that far down offensively. I mean, NO ONE could have predicted that would happen.

    Well, except the people who said we gave up too much offense in the Washington trade.

    Oh, and the people who said it was a bad idea to keep throwing away at-bats on the likes of Jason LaRue, Royce Clayton and Quinton McCracken.

    Wait, wait...and the people who said that we would need to prepare for the eventual point when guys like David Ross, Scott Hatteberg and Brandon Phillips would come back to earth offensively.

    And of course the people who said Adam Dunn - potentially the team's most potent offensive player - would play his best hitting second or third in the order rather than 4th/5th/6th.

    But other than that, yeah, a SHOCKING and COMPLETELY UNEXPECTED decline.

  12. #11
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    Re: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    You'd think with all the HR's more runs would be scored. I honestly could care less if the Reds ever hit another HR. I think that ulimately worked against this team BIG time this year. They got in the habit of waiting for Dunn, Aurilla, Griff, etc. to hit a HR instead of doing the litting things correctly to score runs.

    I really hope the defense improves as well. It was flat horrible at times this year. Anyway to find out how many Runs were a direct result of an error??
    I'm East of you. Be very very worried. Not quite OBX. But, be worried.

  13. #12
    Hardscrabble wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    Quote Originally Posted by 2001MUgrad View Post
    You'd think with all the HR's more runs would be scored. I honestly could care less if the Reds ever hit another HR. I think that ulimately worked against this team BIG time this year. They got in the habit of waiting for Dunn, Aurilla, Griff, etc. to hit a HR instead of doing the litting things correctly to score runs.

    I really hope the defense improves as well. It was flat horrible at times this year. Anyway to find out how many Runs were a direct result of an error??
    Read the post that came before yours carefully.
    Pray for Rain.

  14. #13
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Yes, the Reds need pitching.....but....

    I still think that some people aren't properly assessing just how much the Reds gave up in terms of run production when they shipped both Lopez and kearns to Washington. Aside from Dunn (assuming he stays) the outfield is a huge question mark next year, and then there's that issue with the gaping hole in the middle of the infield...not to mention the fact that we don't have a true first baseman.

    Pitching remains the top priority, but this offense is far from imposing. I'd be curious to see who Krivsky chases after during the offseason. Doesn't sound like the budget leaves a lot of wiggle room.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.


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