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Thread: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

  1. #61
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    Keep in mind that, according to press reports, Dunn's 2008 option vanishes if he is traded. So that means --

    If Dunn is traded now, he is signed (by the new team) for one season and then becomes a free agent.

    If Dunn is traded in mid-season, he is signed for a half-season and then becomes a free agent.

    If the Reds think they are likely to exercise the option for 2008, they should obviously hold him.

    However, if the Reds think they probably will want to trade Dunn, he has the most value now -- when they can offer somebody a full season of Dunn. If they trade him in mid-season, they can only offer somebody a half season of Dunn.

    And, if the Reds wait until after 2007, they can't trade him at all. This is because, according to press reports, once the option is exercised there is a full no-trade clause for 2008.

    So, if they want to trade him, I don't think they can wait.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Keep in mind that, according to press reports, Dunn's 2008 option vanishes if he is traded. So that means --

    If Dunn is traded now, he is signed (by the new team) for one season and then becomes a free agent.

    If Dunn is traded in mid-season, he is signed for a half-season and then becomes a free agent.

    If the Reds think they are likely to exercise the option for 2008, they should obviously hold him.

    However, if the Reds think they probably will want to trade Dunn, he has the most value now -- when they can offer somebody a full season of Dunn. If they trade him in mid-season, they can only offer somebody a half season of Dunn.

    And, if the Reds wait until after 2007, they can't trade him at all. This is because, according to press reports, once the option is exercised there is a full no-trade clause for 2008.

    So, if they want to trade him, I don't think they can wait.

    As mentioned before, I think the Reds will hang onto Dunn and hope a new hitting coach can improve his game.
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  4. #63
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    As mentioned before, I think the Reds will hang onto Dunn and hope a new hitting coach can improve his game.
    I can only hope.

  5. #64
    "A Rose by Any Other. . " RedRoser's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    Well, let's just say that the "Sultan of Swing" is traded for "money for nothing and the chicks for free". . .

  6. #65
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    Quote Originally Posted by RedRoser View Post
    Well, let's just say that the "Sultan of Swing" is traded for "money for nothing and the chicks for free". . .
    At least he knows how to take a "Walk of Life".....

  7. #66
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    Let's just sell Dunn for enough cash so that RCast can finance his Broadway play
    This is the Cal Ripkin Jr. of typos.

    If you ask me to join your fantasy baseball league and I select Legolas in the first round, don't be angry at me. It's not my fault I've read up on the players and you haven't.

  8. #67
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Keep in mind that, according to press reports, Dunn's 2008 option vanishes if he is traded. So that means --

    If Dunn is traded now, he is signed (by the new team) for one season and then becomes a free agent.
    If Dunn is traded in mid-season, he is signed for a half-season and then becomes a free agent.

    If the Reds think they are likely to exercise the option for 2008, they should obviously hold him.

    However, if the Reds think they probably will want to trade Dunn, he has the most value now -- when they can offer somebody a full season of Dunn. If they trade him in mid-season, they can only offer somebody a half season of Dunn.

    And, if the Reds wait until after 2007, they can't trade him at all. This is because, according to press reports, once the option is exercised there is a full no-trade clause for 2008.

    So, if they want to trade him, I don't think they can wait.
    If that is true then a team that was interested in having Dunn would consider that they might only have his services for one year. I would think that they would not be willing to give up very much in return on what might be similar to a one year rental. If the Reds keep him and as you say cannot trade him after 07, then they would risk getting nothing for him except freeing up salary if he chose to walk after 08? Do I have the correct understanding?

  9. #68
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    Quote Originally Posted by SpringfieldFan View Post
    If that is true then a team that was interested in having Dunn would consider that they might only have his services for one year. I would think that they would not be willing to give up very much in return on what might be similar to a one year rental. If the Reds keep him and as you say cannot trade him after 07, then they would risk getting nothing for him except freeing up salary if he chose to walk after 08? Do I have the correct understanding?
    According to the press reports, yes. Except I don't know if you are right about what teams would give up for one year of Dunn at $10.5 million.

    If a team thought they could sign Dunn long term, perhaps a Texas team, maybe these contract issues would not impact the deal too much.

  10. #69
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    I don't know what the Reds can really hope for in terms of Dunn. He is really only about a 1 or 1 1/2 tool player. If he stays, we really need to get him to 1B and if he goes we really need to look for a true leadoff hitter or a closer.

  11. #70
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Keep Dunn.

    I would need 3 top prospects that are ready. 1 who plays SS, one who is a starter and the other a high ceiling guy who doesn't play 3B. I think the Angels are the only team that has it and they have money to buy what they want (Soriano) without trading it all in one deal.

    Good luck ever meeting those expectations, even when Dunn's at his best.
    I hope it's never sunny in Philly again.

  12. #71
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    lets assume...

    lets assume we don't trade Dunn or Griffey and we resign Aurillia and Weathers. This gets us the same team that finished 2006 minus Franklin, Schowenweis ( who we could resign ), Guadaro ( who is done ) & Merker ( who is done ). This team went 80-82. Any normal year they wouldn't have been close to the playoffs.

    C: Valentin/Ross/LaRue
    1B: Aurillia/Hatteberg ( Votto will play in AAA for the first 3 months of 2007 )
    2B: ?Harris/Aurillia/Freel
    SS: Phillips
    3B: EE
    LF: Dunn
    CF: Denorfia & Freel
    RF: Griffey

    SP: Harang Arroyo Lohse Milton EZ/Claussen
    ( Bailey will play in AAA for the first 3 months of 2007 )

    RP: Bray Majik Coffey Cormier Weathers Belisle

    this team does have 2 good starters, a deep decent pen & EE.
    it also has poor OF defense ( Dunn, Griffey ) &, several players who might not have the 2007 numbers they had in 2006.

    what this team lacks to compete at top levels is:

    1. a #3 starter. someone who can give 200 IP with a sub 4.00 era.

    2. another stud player who can contribute offensively and play defense.
    Either 2b, ss ( with Phillips at 2b ) or cf ( with Deno on the bench and Freel at 2b )

    3. a closer

    Can all be had in the free agent market and/or finding someone to take Milton and LaRue? I doubt it. That is why I am willing to trade Dunn if the right offer comes along.

  13. #72
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    Talking about trading dunn, this brings to mind a few possitive aspects of the Kearns Lopez trade. First usually we are talking about how we need to shore up the bullpen and if maj gets healthy, i dont think we need much help unless a top notch closer is available, so we can use the bullpen money we blow every season elsewere( no more old man at the end of his carreer to help the youngins in the pen signings) Second It freed up some cash that we can use for pitching. And last there was such an outcry about the trade that if we do trade Dunn WK will be scared to death of taking anything but a great deal in return, and my guess is that they will go through a very exstensive health exam.( Grab your @&%$# and cough )
    One more thing ive been meaning to bring up, anyone out there have any thoughts on doc hollywood being the reds doctor. Does this give us an inside track on players coming off of tommy john type procedures, and do you think he is consulted before any such signing.

  14. #73
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Who are you going to get for 10 million to replace Dunn's production?
    You can't get a 40 HR hitter for 10 MM. However you could get a 25 HR guy (who would become a 30-33 HR guy at GABP) who is a crack defender, and a quality situational hitter for 10 MM. You could get one for 8 MM. This is what needs to be understood: GABP is perfectly configured for a mid-market team. They should go out and get affordable mid-level bats who are top defenders. Their numbers will increase at GABP. What does it matter if a HR goes 5 feet over the wall or 50? This is why a hitter like Dunn is a waste of money here. He should be in a cavernous park where his power has higher value.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

  15. #74
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    So I guess you just ignore the batting averages for the months too
    Heck, I pretty much just ignore batting averages all the time.
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  16. #75
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    Re: Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

    GABP is perfectly configured for a mid-market team. They should go out and get affordable mid-level bats who are top defenders. Their numbers will increase at GABP. What does it matter if a HR goes 5 feet over the wall or 50?
    This is what makes me very curious about how this regime will approach the FA market. For hitters, the ballpark can be a real draw. For pitchers, it'll be a place to avoid. Of course, money can override the appeal/lack of appeal of a ballpark, but, knowing that the Reds aren't going to outspend all other teams for the most desireable players, you still have to figure GABP is going to be a significant factor when "mid-level" players come to making a final decision about where to sign. As Wheelhouse suggests, it may not be that difficult to replace -- or nearly replace -- the lost offense from the Washington deal (or a possible Dunn deal), given the enticements of our homer-happy park and a respectable outlay of Castellini funny money.
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