Krivsky Offers Twin Peek

[RedsManRick]

I always thought that it was better to get a hit than a walk. Especially if you are counted on to be the big bat in a lineup?

But as much better as a hit is than a walk, a walk or a hit is better than out. Give me guys who avoid making outs and I'll worry about the hits vs walks issue later.

[Kc61]

But as much better as a hit is than a walk, a walk or a hit is better than out. Give me guys who avoid making outs and I'll worry about the hits vs walks issue later.

This is one of those bromides about baseball I just don't buy. "Avoiding outs." Perhaps it is ok for a second tier, complimentary player merely to "avoid outs." Scott Hatteberg, for example.

But I am not satisfied when a highly paid, middle of the order hitter, merely "avoids outs." Someone has to knock in runs. They don't come home by themselves. A middle-of-the-order hitter who avoids an out, but leaves it to others to knock in runs, isn't helping all that much.

Yes, in theory, if everyone could "avoid outs" the team would score tons of runs. But that's not reality. At some point, there will be outs. So when the best hitters are up, I want them knocking in runs.

Similarly, walks, while ok, are not great. If one of your main hitters walks, it leaves it to other (often weaker) hitters to knock in runs. Not to say good hitters should swing at bad pitches; but if there are pitches to hit, I'm not that thrilled with my main guys trying for walks.

[flyer85]

Great point. I think this is what you should take away from the article.

That ought to scare th crap out of any Reds fan. WKs comment is a complete non sequitur. I'd trade less HRs for a more OPS effieciency but simply trading them for non-strikeout events is beyond absurd.

The Twins model is all about pitching with an excellent bullpen and developing a lot of your own players. Until this year their offense has had little to do with their winning.

And a lot of the Twins success, as pointed out earlier was built on the best Rule 5 pick in history and maybe the most lopsided trade in the last 30 years.

[TC81190]

This is one of those bromides about baseball I just don't buy. "Avoiding outs." Perhaps it is ok for a second tier, complimentary player merely to "avoid outs." Scott Hatteberg, for example.

But I am not satisfied when a highly paid, middle of the order hitter, merely "avoids outs." Someone has to knock in runs. They don't come home by themselves. A middle-of-the-order hitter who avoids an out, but leaves it to others to knock in runs, isn't helping all that much.

Yes, in theory, if everyone could "avoid outs" the team would score tons of runs. But that's not reality. At some point, there will be outs. So when the best hitters are up, I want them knocking in runs.

Similarly, walks, while ok, are not great. If one of your main hitters walks, it leaves it to other (often weaker) hitters to knock in runs. Not to say good hitters should swing at bad pitches; but if there are pitches to hit, I'm not that thrilled with my main guys trying for walks.

Winner.

Explain how batting average overshadows OBP.

Because even though they both show up as 1 TB in the box score, you can't drive in a run with a walk (unless the bases are loaded, but c'mon).

[Natty Redlocks]

This is one of those bromides about baseball I just don't buy. "Avoiding outs." Perhaps it is ok for a second tier, complimentary player merely to "avoid outs." Scott Hatteberg, for example.

But I am not satisfied when a highly paid, middle of the order hitter, merely "avoids outs." Someone has to knock in runs. They don't come home by themselves. A middle-of-the-order hitter who avoids an out, but leaves it to others to knock in runs, isn't helping all that much.

Yes, in theory, if everyone could "avoid outs" the team would score tons of runs. But that's not reality. At some point, there will be outs. So when the best hitters are up, I want them knocking in runs.

Similarly, walks, while ok, are not great. If one of your main hitters walks, it leaves it to other (often weaker) hitters to knock in runs. Not to say good hitters should swing at bad pitches; but if there are pitches to hit, I'm not that thrilled with my main guys trying for walks.

I agree. This is why Dunn would be a great complementary player for a bigger money team -- think Edmonds hitting behind Pujols and Rolen -- but not such a great player for a mid-market team that can't afford half a lineup full of guys making 10+ a year. With Griffey at the stage of his career where he's also that type of a player (yet still being paid like a centerpiece), the Reds just can't afford to keep them both. I'd love to see Jr. (and his salary) be the one to go, but that's not realistic.

[Yachtzee]

This is one of those bromides about baseball I just don't buy. "Avoiding outs." Perhaps it is ok for a second tier, complimentary player merely to "avoid outs." Scott Hatteberg, for example.

But I am not satisfied when a highly paid, middle of the order hitter, merely "avoids outs." Someone has to knock in runs. They don't come home by themselves. A middle-of-the-order hitter who avoids an out, but leaves it to others to knock in runs, isn't helping all that much.

Yes, in theory, if everyone could "avoid outs" the team would score tons of runs. But that's not reality. At some point, there will be outs. So when the best hitters are up, I want them knocking in runs.

Similarly, walks, while ok, are not great. If one of your main hitters walks, it leaves it to other (often weaker) hitters to knock in runs. Not to say good hitters should swing at bad pitches; but if there are pitches to hit, I'm not that thrilled with my main guys trying for walks.

Here are a few reason why "avoiding outs" are good.

1. It keeps the inning going. You have a better chance of scoring more runs in an inning if you aren't giving up outs by sacrificing or grounding into double plays.
2. It wears out the pitcher. The more pitches he throws, the better.

I think this is an important skill for any player, not just "second tier complimentary players." The better Dunn is at avoiding outs, the more likely he will be to produce runs. Sure he strikes out a lot. I would like it if he struck out less, because those are outs. But I'd much rather have a Dunn K than a Casey GIDP.

For all Dunn's Ks, he still scored 99 runs, far and away more runs than anyone else on this team, including the ones with higher batting averages.

[SteelSD]

Yes, in theory, if everyone could "avoid outs" the team would score tons of runs. But that's not reality.

Yeah, it actually is reality. Teams that do a better job of avoiding Outs- regardless of how they do so- tend to score more Runs than teams that don't. That's the way baseball works. Always has. Always will.

And players don't trade Walks for Hits. They trade Walks for Outs.

[flyer85]

And players don't trade Walks for Hits. They trade Walks for Outs.

which is the part that most people just don't seem to get. Swinging at pitchers pitches is for almost every player in every situation, simply a way to make an easy out.

[flyer85]

I wonder how WK would answer the following two questions?

Why were the Reds such a good offense early in the year?

Why were the Reds such a poor offense late in the year?

[wolfboy]

And players don't trade Walks for Hits. They trade Walks for Outs.

That is a very important point.

I've seen people say that Dunn needs to be more aggressive at the plate (i.e. swing at pitches out of the strike zone) Well, if the guy does that, his walks will go down. That is a certainty. But with 190 strikeouts, what makes people think that swinging at pitches out of the strike zone will make the guy get more hits (and RBI)? I fail to see the logic.

[Falls City Beer]

Why were the Reds such a poor offense late in the year?

Chris Chambliss.

[RFS62]

Chris Chambliss.

Yeah, that bum didn't get a single hit in September.

[Cyclone792]

My favorite chart ...



The nine squares in the center represent the strike zone while the outer collar is all outside the strike zone. Each square represents the percentage of pitches in that zone that become hits.

Frankly, that chart is about as self-explanatory as it gets.

[RFS62]

That chart is about as self-explanatory as it gets.

Ahem....

[traderumor]

I've seen people say that Dunn needs to be more aggressive at the plate (i.e. swing at pitches out of the strike zone)

While I'm sure there is someone who thinks that, I think everyone else is referring to letting good strikes go by or getting rung up on the pitch at the knees or on the corner.