The thread title was supposed to be WARM, all caps, sorry.
No, this is not a thread about temperature. Nor is it a thread about a real stat. But I was having a discussion with a friend about the Macha-A's situation, and it touched on a few subjects are often discussed, namely: How much credit should a manager get? How replaceable is a manager? Is he worth more or less than the players he manages? I've always held the belief that most managers are just interchangeable guys that will lead a team to about the record you'd expect given the talent on hand and circumstances not in his control, i.e. most if not all injuries. True difference-makers in the dugout (and that could be bad as well as good) are rare.
So I got to thinking about the value of a manager versus a top player, and what the effect would be if you replaced a manager -- Jerry Narron, let's say -- with Generic Guy. BP uses the Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) metric to do that for players. A metric for a manager could be Wins Above Replacement Manager (WARM). If my belief is correct, a much higher percentage of managers are Replacement Level than are players.
The problem is, measuring a manager is a lot harder than measuring a player, not that measuring players is an exact science either. So we're going to have to go on perception here. Based on your perception of various MLB managers, if you took his team and replayed 2006 with Generic Guy at the helm, what effect would it have? Over time, what value would you assign to "name" managers like Larussa, Leyland, Piniella, Torre, etc. in terms of WARM?