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Thread: My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

  1. #31
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

    I took another look at this list this morning and became a little curious about number 17 - Carlos Fisher. I wonder if he's a sleeper.

    He was 23 in low A ball, but his numbers were awesome.

    - His basic stats say 12 wins and 2.76 ERA with a WHIP of 1.14
    - He struck out 3.2 Batters for every guy he walked
    - He averaged 2.28 Walks per nine innings with 7.32 K's per nine.
    - He gave up just 5 HR in 150 Innings
    - He held the league to a .237 average off of him
    - He averaged almost 2 ground outs for every fly out.
    - He is right handed, 6-4 and 220 LBs

    He played at Lewis and Clark State in Idaho. As a result of pitching in such a little known place (I assume that's why anyway) , he fell to the 11th round of the 2005 Draft. 2006 was his first year as a pro. (I can not find any stats on him pitching in 2005 after the draft.) This partially explains why he started the year at low A.

    Anyone know more about this guy? What does he throw? What is his velocity? Why didn't he move-up to a higher level mid-year?

    He'll be 24 in February so he needs to move a little faster and at least finish 2007 in AA. He seems like a guy that would be a good choice for GABP with his GB rate. If he moves up as the numbers suggest, this may be another find courtesy of DanO.

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  3. #32
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

    I think Fisher is a sleeper. He did not pitch until he was a sophomore in college. Probably a reason he lasted until the 11th round. He has a fastball that sits in the low 90's and has a good slider. One knock on him when he waas drafted is his secondary stuff was not always that good. He was drafted as an outfielder out of HS by the Padres but didnt sign. So he is very athletic, which is always good in a pitcher.

  4. #33
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

    Fisher's got some nice sink on his fastball also. Does anyone know if he has, or is working on, a changeup?

  5. #34
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    Re: My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

    My Top Ten has many of the same faces, but in a slightly different order:

    10. Chris Dickerson, 24 AA
    His second half (273 BA/ 423 OBP/ 527 SLG/ 950 OPS) is the stuff of a solid A-/ B+ prospect (due to age and K concerns). His first half-- and the previous four years-- were the stuff of a suspect. If he's really turned the corner, Dickerson is a legitimate uber-prospect. If not, he's still an above average defender at all three OF positions, particularly CF. This year, in AAA, will largely determine what type of impact Dickerson can have at the major league level. He's got unquestionable talent and one half of a solid season.
    Fearless Prediction: Dickerson will lead AAA in K's, striking out at a Dunnian pace. He will also show flashes of brilliance, but will struggle most of the year offensively.

    9. Tyler Pelland, 23 AA
    He's a lefty with plus stuff. He's been slightly above average a year before he should be. With a season of AA under his belt, my bet is Pelland pitches much, much better this season. (Think Phil Dumatrait AA 2005, for reference.) He's still young enough and talented enough to be a solid #3 starter in the bigs, but he needs to cut down on his walks. A lot. If he does, he's golden. If not, he's still a serviceable LOOGY out of the pen and those are fairly valuable. (Not Kearns and Lopez valuable, but valuable, but important, nonetheless.)
    Fearless Prediction: Very good year in AA, with a late move to AAA and the struggles that go along with it. A move up the prospect ladder, possibly to the Top Five.

    8. Chris Valaika, 21 Billings
    Valaika was a surprise last season, to say the least. If he can play SS (and all the pundits say he may be able to), he's a much better prospect than if he can only play 2B. Offensively, Valaika raked all season, hitting with pop (a 900+ OPS) especially. This year is all-important for Valaika, as he needs to at least show the baseball world last season wasn't an abberation.
    Fearless Prediction: The bet here is he's shown most of what he has and will settle into a solid, if unspectacular prospect in the C+ to B- range.

    7. Milton Loo, 20 Rookie
    Loo was injured pretty much from the get-go after the Reds drafted him. He still hit and hit well. Supposedly, his glove is well above average, but his bat speed is what will separate him from the minor league pack. I love what little I've seen/ heard about him. This year, probably in short-season Billings, Loo should be a monster. If he jumps two levels (highly doubtful, considering injuries, age, and the Reds' penchant for leaving players in lower leagues longer), he could survive. If he only jumps one, he could be Gary Redus, redux.
    Fearless Prediction: By this time next season, Loo will jump at least four spots and may occupy the second spot in the Red prospect Top Ten.

    6. Chris Denorfia, 27 AAA/ Norris Hopper, 28 AAA
    I know, I cheated. Sue me. Both players are ready right now. Both players can help the Reds. They are extremely similar, in terms of career projections, with Denorfia's power overshadowing Hopper's speed. Both could develop into above average CF's with lead-off capabilities. Both are likey fourth OF's on a team that needs a lead-off hitter. Sigh. (Damn you, Jerry Narron.) Denorfia has done everything a prospect can in the minor leagues; he's blossomed into a solid prospect over the past three years. Hopper provided an outstanding AAA year in 2006. Can they do it again in the majors?
    Fearless Prediction: Both Hopper and Denorfia are capable fourth outfielders and nothing more. Neither take the reins on the Red RF spot and Cincinnati turns to Ryan Freel in CF, with Junior in LF, and Dunn in RF. Both Hopper and Denorfia play a bunch, as neither Freel nor Junior are capable of playing everyday. Think Brady Clark solid production.

    5. Joey Votto, 23 AA
    Votto, a has-been, once-again prospect, blossomed with the regime change. He's got pop in his bat, though scouts are still waiting on that light pole to light pole 60+ power he is capable of. He's got speed-- much more than is typical of the usual lumbering first sacker. He's also able to work the count, with an OBP over 400 and an OPS over 950. You can't ask for more from him. Actually, I can. In AAA Louisville, Votto will be able to punch some really, really cheap dingers to right field. (The short porch is a lazy fly ball away.) If he continues to progress, 30 homers in AAA is not out of the cards. That should make him the erstwhile starter in 2008 and a good bet for national pub as a ROY possibility.
    Fearless Prediction: Votto's BA drops to the 280's, but his power numbers go up. Not as good a year as last, but solid. At his peak, Votto is Sean Casey, v. 1995. He's not there yet.

    4. Travis Wood, 19 Low A
    An extremely solid sophomore season after a truly phenomenal rookie year keep Wood highly ranked. He's hard to hit and doesn't walk many (though his BB's rose precipitously this year). There's not much to quibble about, as he was at least a year younger than most in Dayton this past season. With a step up the ladder, Wood should continue to see his star rise. He's not overly big, at just 6' tall and 190 lbs. But he's still just 19 and his fastball should slide up a notch as well, resting in the low to mid 90's. If that's the case, Wood is a #2 starter in the bigs, as his curve and especially his change is all world.
    Fearless Prediction: Another very good year from the Arkansas Assassin. A Top 100 prospect in baseball. Possibly Top 25. He's that good.

    3. Johnny Cueto, 20 High A
    Cueto burst out of nowhere, solidifying a spot in the Top Three based on his mid-season jump to Sarasota, where, after initial struggles, he settled into a solid groove. In fact, in Cueto's last ten outings, only one disastrous start (1.2 IP/ 8 ER) and one stinker (5.1 IP/ 5 ER) were less than outstanding. He has outstanding stuff, but is a bit undersized. The bet here is he moves up to AA at the beginning of the season and shines. If he can get his control struggles from High A out of the way early, Cueto may be among the top five or six pitcher prospects in the entire game.
    Fearless Prediction: Cueto's jump from Sarasota to AA Chattanooga is Bailey-esque, but questions about his size keep him from achieving the press that Bailey has enjoyed.

    2. Jay Bruce, 19 Low A
    Bruce is a man-child. He's a solid five-tooler in the Larry Walker mold. And it's about time, as Cincinnati needs him as soon as he can get there. If not sooner. Bruce should be the next in a long line of Cincy sluggers that can run and hit with pop. He's also capable, at this point, of manning CF. There are few holes In Bruce's game, though he could stand to K less and walk a bit more. Still, as a 19 year old in Dayton, Bruce shone. Can he repeat? Time will tell.
    Fearless Prediction: Bruce becomes the top prospect in High A in 07 and is a media darling. Power production rises across the board, but his BA takes a slight dip.

    1. Homer Bailey, 20 AA
    Simply put, Bailey is the most important Red prosect of the past twenty years. I hate to put that pressure on the kid, but it's true. He's an ace in the making and is capable of being among the very best pitchers in the entire game. He's got a HOF arm, ratcheting the ball up to the high 90's and sitting in the mid 90's all game long. His fastball also has sick movement at times. His curve and change are coming along, but he needs to refine both to be at his most effective. He'll likely come up by the All Star Break this season and is already among the top ten prospects in the game.
    Fearless Prediction: Bailey comes north in early May and establishes himself as a bone fide ROY candidate. He struggles some, but when he's on, he's almost unhittable.

  6. #35
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    10. Chris Dickerson, 24 AA
    His second half (273 BA/ 423 OBP/ 527 SLG/ 950 OPS) is the stuff of a solid A-/ B+ prospect (due to age and K concerns). His first half-- and the previous four years-- were the stuff of a suspect. If he's really turned the corner, Dickerson is a legitimate uber-prospect. If not, he's still an above average defender at all three OF positions, particularly CF. This year, in AAA, will largely determine what type of impact Dickerson can have at the major league level. He's got unquestionable talent and one half of a solid season.
    Fearless Prediction: Dickerson will lead AAA in K's, striking out at a Dunnian pace. He will also show flashes of brilliance, but will struggle most of the year offensively.
    I share your optimism about Dickerson. Its hard to ignore his 4 years of mediocrity, but I also noted his 2nd half and he has good plate discipline and power. His speed and defense add to he package. I think he could sneak into a role. I think of Wily Mo with good defense.

    As for the rest of the list, I'm not as high on Pelland and higher on Votto. I think Votto will be a consistent, legit force in the middle of the line-up. Something Casey never really became. I hope it happens in 2007.

    I think you are right on about Deno, but I predict Hopper will be a memory by this time next year. Actually Dickerson, Strait and Stubbs will make Moran and Hopper very expendable. Moran won't bring much and Hopper will bring less.

    I have heard the opposite about Valaika. If he can project at SS his value will soar.

  7. #36
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

    Here's my top 10... I would go to 40, but I just don't feel like it.

    1) Homer Bailey
    Pretty obvious #1. I would have Bailey in the rotation on opening day. His numbers compare well to Kazmir in 2004, and Kazmir put up a 3.77ERA in '05. Granted, Kazmir had some ML experience in '04, but when you have a chance to make the playoffs, I say give it all you got.

    2) Jay Bruce
    He made Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin look like Royce Clayton's younger brothers last year. He just consistently scorches the ball. Nearly half of his hits went for extra bases last year. Just wait until he adds muscle.

    3) Joey Votto
    I was worried after his '05 season, but he quickly got back on the horse. Could be the next Sean Casey circa 1999-00? Hopefully without the massive power outage.

    4) Johnny Cueto
    If he was actually sitting at 93-97MPH in the FSL, I could care less how tall he is. He should fit very nicely behind Bailey in our futuristic rotation. Once again: Thank you Mario Soto.

    5) Travis Wood
    His velocity dipped this year. Not sure why, but his changeup is absolutely sick and he still had a very nice season in Dayton. A lot of his potential rides on how, or if, his velocity bounces back, and the development of his curveball, which is a plus pitch about 7% of the times he throws it.

    6) Drew Stubbs
    I know he struggled, but it was only like 200 rookie ball at bats. I think he'll have a good year in Dayton and prove a few people wrong. Not saying I love him or anything, but I can't stand it when people call him a bust already.

    7) Milton Loo
    Everyone else seems to love the guy, so I'll just go ahead and join the bandwagon. There's nothing sexier than a 5 tool shortstop. We'll get a better idea next year.

    8) Sam Lecure
    His K rate was a tad low this year, but he still did a pretty nice job. He looks like a future #4 and could be up pretty soon.

    9) Paul Janish
    He quit trying to take a walk every at bat this year and ended up batting over .300 with 14 homers. He may slip from that a bit at AA, but if his glove is as good as everybody says it is, he could be a gold glove shortstop with decent pop at the plate. Always a nice combo.

    10) Sean Watson
    Mid 90's fastball with a wicked breaking ball. He's a little raw for a college pitcher, but he's got the makings of a great power repertoire.

  8. #37
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He was, or at least he was said to be throwing that hard. Here is where I referenced him throwing in the high 80's.
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=5318
    One American League scout thinks the Reds may have found a usuable lefty in 2002 fourth-round pick Camilo Vazquez, who was recently promoted to Double-A Chattanooga. "I realize his numbers aren't great, but he's a bit of a sleeper for me as a potential No. 4 or 5 starter," he said. "The curve is a real out pitch, and his fastball is only in the upper 80s but has really nice movement with some tailing action, and the change is usable. He's got a chance to break through."
    I've often heard that lefties can get by without a blazing fastball. I remember a friend who pitched for XU who signed a minor league contract with the Cards. A rightie, his fastball was topping out in the mid to high 80's. He was contemporary of Charlie Liebrandt (Miami, IIRC) who had basically the same stuff. He left after a few weeks because he knew he'd never make it to the ML. I remember him saying if he'd been a lefthander, he probably could have made it. Just curious as to others thoughts on this.

  9. #38
    Moderator Gallen5862's Avatar
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    Re: My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

    2B William Bergolla is a 6 year free agent along with Herr.
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...ws/262709.html
    Cincinnati Reds
    C Ryan Jorgensen(resigned)
    C Rafael Motooka
    1B Earl Snyder
    2B William Bergolla
    2B Matt Kata
    3B Habelito Hernandez
    SS Javier Colina
    SS Aaron Herr(resigned)
    SS Gary Patchett
    SS Hector Tiburcio
    OF Gary Varner
    RHP James Abbott
    RHP Giancarlo Alvarado
    RHP Joel Barreto
    RHP Tim Bausher
    RHP Jeff Bruksch
    RHP Josh Hall
    RHP Jake Robbins
    RHP Edward Valdez
    LHP Chad Bentz
    LHP Jan Granado
    LHP Richard Stahl
    Last edited by Gallen5862; 12-27-2006 at 11:49 PM. Reason: updating status.

  10. #39
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    Re: My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

    One theing I liked about last years draft is that the Reds drafted some hitters and not just project guys. I mean for years the Reds drafted players because they could run fast, hit the ball a mile and had a very strong arm but couldn't put the ball in play. This year they picked (other than Stubbs) guys who had a proven track record of putting the ball in play and still had a little pop in their bats. These guys may not be the super stars but they can make great fillers on teams. You know those tough outs that make the pitcher work, the guys on base when the meat of your order comes up, the guys that can and will do the little things to win. Now if they can just figure out how to draft pitching alittle better.

  11. #40
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

    I rather liked a lot of the pitchers drafted this year Redmachine2003..

    A lot of the HS guys are big and projectable, with room to grow. And a lot of the college guys seem like prototypical pitcher bodies.. big, tall, with some meat on them and most can dial it up to the mid 90s.. hopefully they wont break down.

    They might not have been the "big name" guys on draft day, but they all seem very intriguing. I am interested to see especially how 2 pitchers, Watson and Ravin, will progress this year. Watson has a good repitiore(sp?), and Ravin reportedly got his velocity up to 96 in short season ball.
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