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Thread: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

  1. #16
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Just wondering, do team K's correlate at all to team wins?

    My poor little brain still struggles with the 2 facts of K's matter for pitchers but K's don't matter for batters.

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  3. #17
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Roy, check out this post from RedsManRick earlier this season. It may help you better understand the relationship with strikeouts and how it's a positive correlation for pitchers but has no correlation for hitters:

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...4&postcount=37
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  4. #18
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post

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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    A strikeout is just an out. Like any other out. I agree. I also think this misses the point. It focuses on the impact of the strikeout.

    The real point is the "opportunity cost" of a failure to make contact. If you don't hit the ball, and don't walk, you can't get on base. You can't "avoid an out." You can't "acquire bases."

    The problem is not the impact of the strikeout itself; the problem is the failure to hit the ball (or walk). A batter who hits the ball has a chance to reach base. A batter who walks reaches base. A batter who fails to hit or walk cannot reach base.

    The reason for all these diagrams and stats showing little correlation with runs scored is that teams vary in their production when not striking out. Some teams compensate for high strikeout totals with power, timely hitting, etc. This is true. This is why strikeout totals are not themselves determinative of offensive performance.

    But striking out a lot is a handicap; it means that you have fewer opportunities to reach base. It makes it harder to score runs. Teams can compensate for this, surely. But it is not irrelevant.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-24-2006 at 03:38 PM.

  6. #20
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    But striking out a lot is a handicap; it means that you have fewer opportunities to reach base. It makes it harder to score runs. Teams can compensate for this, surely. But it is not irrelevant.

    ANY out means fewer opportunities to reach base.

    It's how often a player/team makes an out, and what a player/team does when NOT making an out that drives runs.

    Not what kind of out it is.
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  7. #21
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    But striking out a lot is a handicap; it means that you have fewer opportunities to reach base. It makes it harder to score runs. Teams can compensate for this, surely. But it is not irrelevant.
    This is correct if you are Jose Hernandez. Not if you are Adam Dunn.

    Because regardless of K's, Dunn still manages 100 BB's a year. So all of those K's could have been popouts to 2B, and his numbers would have been exactly the same.

    Now if he can turn K's into hits or BB's, I'm for that. But to just tell a guy to cut down on K's is over simplistic. That's a round about way of saying get more hits. Hey, I'm for that too.

    Except I don't want power hitters doinking singles because they changed their approach so much they can't hit for power. .340 with 10 HR's ain't as productive as .250 with 40 HR's. Especially if the walk totals DON'T stay the same. If the OBP is the same, gimme the 40 jacks.
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    ANY out means fewer opportunities to reach base.

    It's how often a player/team makes an out, and what a player/team does when NOT making an out that drives runs.

    Not what kind of out it is.
    Respectfully, I don't think that's the point. The issue is not the impact of various "outs."

    The issue is failure to hit the ball. Excluding walks, the only way to get on base is to hit the ball. When you strike out, you fail to hit the ball. You have no chance for a hit.

    When you hit a fly ball, a grounder, a line drive, it has some chance of being a hit. When you take a strike, or swing and miss, you have no chance of getting a hit.

    That is what is meant by "avoiding strikeouts." It's not the impact of the out. It's the failure to have any chance for a hit because you didn't hit the ball.

    I hope that more clearly states my point.

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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Just wondering, do team K's correlate at all to team wins?

    My poor little brain still struggles with the 2 facts of K's matter for pitchers but K's don't matter for batters.
    Roy,
    I wondered this at one time as well, as well as other differences using game to game data. What I found from the game logs (thanks Retrosheet) is that the team runs doesn't correlate at all with the strikeouts, in fact the magnitude of the correlation coefficient is .09. I would show the scatter plot, except not much seen from it. But this data was for all of the games by all teams from 2002 to 2004. I haven't updated it with the more recent years, but that is a fair amount of data to work with.

  10. #24
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    [QUOTE=Kc61;1183426] It's the failure to have any chance for a hit because you didn't hit the ball.

    [QUOTE]


    So you're saying:
    More balls in play=more runs?

    I'm on a public terminal here, with less then 15 minutes until my time expires so I'm not going to be able to do the research myself, but if anyone has the time, I'd like to see if that's true.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    This is correct if you are Jose Hernandez. Not if you are Adam Dunn.

    Because regardless of K's, Dunn still manages 100 BB's a year. So all of those K's could have been popouts to 2B, and his numbers would have been exactly the same.

    Now if he can turn K's into hits or BB's, I'm for that. But to just tell a guy to cut down on K's is over simplistic. That's a round about way of saying get more hits. Hey, I'm for that too.

    Except I don't want power hitters doinking singles because they changed their approach so much they can't hit for power. .340 with 10 HR's ain't as productive as .250 with 40 HR's. Especially if the walk totals DON'T stay the same. If the OBP is the same, gimme the 40 jacks.
    This is not about Dunn at all. It's more theoretical. As I said earlier, some teams/guys compensate for the strikeouts. I agree. Strikeouts are not the whole picture.

    But if you have two identical hitters (same power, speed, walks, etc.) and one hits the ball 70 percent of the time and the other hits the ball 50 percent of the time, I want the guy who hits the ball more frequently.

  12. #26
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Respectfully, I don't think that's the point. The issue is not the impact of various "outs."

    The issue is failure to hit the ball. Excluding walks, the only way to get on base is to hit the ball. When you strike out, you fail to hit the ball. You have no chance for a hit.

    When you hit a fly ball, a grounder, a line drive, it has some chance of being a hit. When you take a strike, or swing and miss, you have no chance of getting a hit.

    That is what is meant by "avoiding strikeouts." It's not the impact of the out. It's the failure to have any chance for a hit because you didn't hit the ball.

    I hope that more clearly states my point.
    You can't just trade Ks for hits. It's more complicated than that. I'll use Dunn as an example.

    The thing is, if Dunn changes his approach to hit for more contact, it will likely lead to a huge decrease of walks and power totals making him a less effective hitter.

    Dunn's strength is not making contact. It's power and patience. A good hitting coach would use his assets instead of changing him. For Dunn to become a better hitter, increased patience will likely be the result. As patient as Dunn is, he still swings at a lot of bad pitches. That's what a hitting coach should preach to Dunn. Wait for his pitch, not expand the zone to make weak contact and get behind in the count.

    Making Dunn a contact hitter may lead to more hits, but it wont neccessarily lead to a higher OBP or SLG.

  13. #27
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    [QUOTE=Raisor;1183432][QUOTE=Kc61;1183426] It's the failure to have any chance for a hit because you didn't hit the ball.



    So you're saying:
    More balls in play=more runs?

    I'm on a public terminal here, with less then 15 minutes until my time expires so I'm not going to be able to do the research myself, but if anyone has the time, I'd like to see if that's true.
    No, I'm not saying that. There are many variables. Power is an important one. Being in situations to produce runs is important. Speed can be important for a hitter. Lots of variables.

    All I am saying is that making contact is, itself, an important variable. Not the only one. It can be overcome. But it is important.

    When Krivsky or others say they want to cut down strikeouts, I think they mean that they want more contact. The team, as a whole, is missing too many pitches and, accordingly, is losing opportunities for hits. That's what I take from their comments.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-24-2006 at 04:07 PM.

  14. #28
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    A strikeout is just an out. Like any other out. I agree. I also think this misses the point. It focuses on the impact of the strikeout.

    The real point is the "opportunity cost" of a failure to make contact. If you don't hit the ball, and don't walk, you can't get on base. You can't "avoid an out." You can't "acquire bases."

    The problem is not the impact of the strikeout itself; the problem is the failure to hit the ball (or walk). A batter who hits the ball has a chance to reach base. A batter who walks reaches base. A batter who fails to hit or walk cannot reach base.

    The reason for all these diagrams and stats showing little correlation with runs scored is that teams vary in their production when not striking out. Some teams compensate for high strikeout totals with power, timely hitting, etc. This is true. This is why strikeout totals are not themselves determinative of offensive performance.

    But striking out a lot is a handicap; it means that you have fewer opportunities to reach base. It makes it harder to score runs. Teams can compensate for this, surely. But it is not irrelevant.
    The reason all those diagrams and stats show little correlation with strikeouts and runs scored is because ... there is little correlation with strikeouts and runs scored. If there was correlation, it'd show up. If striking out is a handicap and makes it harder to score runs as you say, then there would be correlation to strikeouts reducing run value more than a trivial amount. But the correlation just doesn't exist, and that's the entire point. That BP chart is over 50 seasons worth of data, and look at how much of a mess it is. There's no correlation in there at all.

    This past season, the Marlins led the NL with 1,249 strikeouts. The Giants had the fewest strikeouts with 891. That's a difference of 358 strikeouts between the best team at avoiding them and the worst team at avoiding them. In actual run value, the Giants saved about 11 runs over the entire season by striking out 358 fewer times. That's it, just 11 runs between the best and the worst team in the NL in striking out over an entire season.

    Meanwhile, the top OPS in the NL were the Phillies at .794, while the worst OPS belonged to the Pirates at .724. That's a difference of 70 points of OPS between the best team and the last, and that run value differential over a full season exceeds 150 runs.

    I'm not sure about anybody else, but I'll take 150+ runs over 11 runs every day.

    Here's another example, this time from the Reds ...
    Code:
    2005 Reds
    
    OBP:  .339
    SLG:  .446
    OPS:  .785
    K's: 1,303
    Runs:  820
    
    2006 Reds
    
    OBP:  .336
    SLG:  .432
    OPS:  .768
    K's: 1,192
    Runs:  749
    Take a good look, and notice that the Reds actually struck out 111 fewer times in 2006 than in 2005, but they also scored 71 fewer runs. Their OBP dropped slightly by three points, and their SLG took a massive hit by 14 points. The collective 17 point OPS drop is what caused the Reds to score 71 fewer runs; the reduction in strikeouts did little to nothing to help them recoup those lost runs.

    Players who avoid outs and acquire bases better than other players are the players who are the best hitters. The same applies on the team level as well. Outs are outs, and the notion of productive outs having some significant value just cannot be backed up by any verifiable data whatsoever.

    This isn't about strikeouts vs. hits; you don't turn strikeouts into hits, just like you don't turn walks into hits. If strikeouts could be turned into hits, then the data would show a strong correlation between low strikeout teams and high run totals, but it just doesn't exist.

    Kc, if the data supported your contention of strikeouts being a handicap and suppressing run scoring, then I'd agree with you. But there isn't any data out there that supports that contention; rather, there's mountains of evidence that show otherwise.
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  15. #29
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    The problem is, more contact != (read that as "does not equal") fewer outs. It might, from player to player, result in that. It isn't a direct relationship though. As AK pointed out, even if more contact = fewer outs for a particular player, it could mean a decrease in other metrics that are positive factors for run production (power).
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  16. #30
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    More contact might even mean more outs, because just as you turn strikeouts in to contact, you turn walks in to contact as well. And chances are, the "new" contact is lower quality contact than you're accustomed to getting.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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