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Thread: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

  1. #31
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    The very clear point of the data is that strikeouts have no correlation to runs scored. You don't have to like or agree with it but that doesn't make it less true. If you interested in scoring more runs, concentrating on reducing Ks is the wrong way to go about it.
    Last edited by flyer85; 10-24-2006 at 06:09 PM.
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  3. #32
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Good hitting coaches recognize patterns in the way that his hitters are being pitched and good hitters will make adjustments. It's an ongoing game within the game. The guys that can make adjustments will be the most successful. Making adjustments doesn't mean changing your swing. It may mean changing the mental approach that you are taking at any given time. If a pitcher finds out through advanced scouting that a particular hitter is not swinging at pitches early in the count, he is going to get ahead with strikes. If a hitter is hitting a lot of pitches early, he is not apt to get a lot of fat pitches early. If a hitter is not hitting a particular pitch well, he is going to get force fed until he proves he can hit it. All about adjusting to the way you are being pitched. Good hitters do it.
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    The idea is not to focus on one perceived weakness (strikeouts), but to look at a player's approach as a whole. Is he striking out because he can't hit a curveball, or is it because he works the count mercilessly waiting for one pitch he can drive? When he gets the pitch he wants, is he hitting it with authority? Will reducing his strikeouts also reduce his power and/or his walks?

    A player's approach is like an ecosystem. You can't simply tinker with one aspect of his approach and not expect there to be ramifications somewhere down the line.
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    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    The idea is not to focus on one perceived weakness (strikeouts), but to look at a player's approach as a whole. Is he striking out because he can't hit a curveball, or is it because he works the count mercilessly waiting for one pitch he can drive? When he gets the pitch he wants, is he hitting it with authority? Will reducing his strikeouts also reduce his power and/or his walks?

    A player's approach is like an ecosystem. You can't simply tinker with one aspect of his approach and not expect there to be ramifications somewhere down the line.
    Likewise, you can't turn a blind eye to a hole or a problem and not expect there to be ramifications somewhere down the line. The major league game is all about adjustments. They will find your weakness(es). The best adjust.
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    More contact might even mean more outs, because just as you turn strikeouts in to contact, you turn walks in to contact as well. And chances are, the "new" contact is lower quality contact than you're accustomed to getting.
    If you take it as a given, however, that the league-average for BABIP is going to be somewhere around .300 -- with some pitchers being "hit lucky" and tossing lower BABIP and some pitchers being "hit unlucky" and tossing a higher BABIP -- shouldn't that mean a team of hackers that puts EVERY pitch into play should bat roughly .300?

    I know batting average is a poor metric to judge run production by, but I have to think, anecdotally, that a team of .300 hitters 1-9 would be somewhat of an offensive machine.

    I'm sure that simplifying things to this magnitude skews the stats, considering BABIP takes into account that players only put certain types of pitches into play, and the minute you start playing for contact you start changing the variables involved in determining the stat -- but it is an interesting line of thought.
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    More contact might even mean more outs, because just as you turn strikeouts in to contact, you turn walks in to contact as well. And chances are, the "new" contact is lower quality contact than you're accustomed to getting.
    I find this thread very interesting. I understand that there are different views on the importance of contact hitting. Sorry, but I can't agree that making contact is somehow a negative. (Nobody is suggesting coaching hitters to swing at bad pitches.)

    Having spoken out for contact hitting, I don't think hitting coaches are the main way to accomplish this. I agree that tinkering with major league hitters is often counterproductive.

    I do think the Reds need more of an emphasis on contact hitting. At GABP, you don't need to hit the ball 500 feet. A batter who can consistently drive the ball can get a fair number of home runs even if he lacks the power of a guy like Dunn. (Not arguing against Dunn; just making an overall point; with the right surrounding cast, Dunn would be more effective.)

    In any event, I think Krivsky (rightly or wrongly) shares these views and it will be interesting to see how he implements them.

  8. #37
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    If you take it as a given, however, that the league-average for BABIP is going to be somewhere around .300 -- with some pitchers being "hit lucky" and tossing lower BABIP and some pitchers being "hit unlucky" and tossing a higher BABIP -- shouldn't that mean a team of hackers that puts EVERY pitch into play should bat roughly .300?

    I know batting average is a poor metric to judge run production by, but I have to think, anecdotally, that a team of .300 hitters 1-9 would be somewhat of an offensive machine.

    I'm sure that simplifying things to this magnitude skews the stats, considering BABIP takes into account that players only put certain types of pitches into play, and the minute you start playing for contact you start changing the variables involved in determining the stat -- but it is an interesting line of thought.
    It sounds good on the surface, but it unravels once you dive in.

    Obviously, the goal of every offense is to score runs. Everything revolves around run value: scoring runs offensively and preventing runs defensively. Reducing strikeouts does result in an increase in contact, yes, but the correlation falls apart when trying to connect a reduction in strikeouts to an increase in actual run scoring. The premise of "less strikeouts --> more contact ---> more runs" falls apart when you try to make the leap into "more runs."

    Why does the connection between more contact and more runs fall apart? Mostly because of two factors, 1) less patience (i.e. less walks), and 2) less power, which results in fewer extra base hits. When you shoot for more contact, you're pretty much gaining a few extra singles while sacrificing a significant amount of walks and extra base hits.

    Here's a snippet from that same BP article in which I highlighted the chart above ...

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=2617

    Correlation of SO/PA with (all players 1950-2002, 300+ PA)
    Code:
    Metric     Correlation
    ----------------------
    ISO             +0.388
    SLG             +0.198
    BB/PA           +0.125
    OBP             -0.100
    AVG             -0.290
    
    OPS             +0.106
    MLVr            +0.005
    While it might not be overwhelming, there is a distinct, positive correlation between an individual's strikeout rate and a number of useful attributes: hitting for power—as represented in this case by isolated power (ISO, or slugging percentage minus batting average) and slugging percentage (SLG)—as well as drawing walks—as represented by walk-rate (BB/PA). Of course, causation is a sticky subject, so try not to misinterpret the above data as "proof" that increased strikeouts cause an improvement in a player's secondary skills. It's just that where one group shows up, often so does the other.

    Notice, also, the virtually non-existent (albeit positive) correlation between strikeout rate and "complete" measures of offensive performance like on-base plus slugging (OPS) and Marginal Lineup Value Rate (MLVr). No matter how you slice it, it just doesn't appear that strikeouts have much of an effect on a team's—or an individual's—ability to produce runs.
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  9. #38
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I do think the Reds need more of an emphasis on contact hitting. At GABP, you don't need to hit the ball 500 feet.
    I'm throwing this out there completely off the top of my head and as a genuine question: is it possible that contact hitting is more of a detriment in GABP than other parks due to its little size? An outfielder just doesn't have to be Speedy Gonzales to pick up an outfield hit there. The park is great for homers, but it suppresses doubles and triples (and singles?) if I'm not mistaken. I'd be very interested to know GABP's total bases (either by all teams or by just the Reds) compared to other parks if anyone can point me in the direction of that data, and I'd particularly like to hear about them with the home run data taken out if possible (i hope that makes sense).

    In other words -- we think of GABP is such a hitter's park, but I'm not sure that contact hitting is better than patient hitting specifically for this park. And Kc, I realize that your point was more that a "power hitter" in GABP does not necessarily correlate to the definition elsewhere and that you were talking about home runs, but it just got me thinking.
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  10. #39
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum View Post
    I'm throwing this out there completely off the top of my head and as a genuine question: is it possible that contact hitting is more of a detriment in GABP than other parks due to its little size? An outfielder just doesn't have to be Speedy Gonzales to pick up an outfield hit there. The park is great for homers, but it suppresses doubles and triples (and singles?) if I'm not mistaken. I'd be very interested to know GABP's total bases (either by all teams or by just the Reds) compared to other parks if anyone can point me in the direction of that data, and I'd particularly like to hear about them with the home run data taken out if possible (i hope that makes sense).

    In other words -- we think of GABP is such a hitter's park, but I'm not sure that contact hitting is better than patient hitting specifically for this park. And Kc, I realize that your point was more that a "power hitter" in GABP does not necessarily correlate to the definition elsewhere and that you were talking about home runs, but it just got me thinking.
    Brilliant observation on applying the park factor to contact hitting, vatican, and I think you're absolutely right that contact hitting in GABP is more of a detriment than most other parks. For that, Retrosheet is our friend.

    GABP park factor by component, 2003-05:

    Aids: Home Runs
    Neutral: Doubles and Strikeouts
    Suppresses: Singles, Triples and Walks

    The GABP batting average during those seasons was .265, while road parks had a batting average of .270 so GABP was suppressing hits overall. Slugging percentage is a different story, however, as hitters in GABP slugged .451 compared to only .444 on the road. Isolated power at GABP is .186 compared to only .174 in other parks.

    If contact hitting results in less isolated power, which there's evidence for, then contact hitting in GABP is not ideal given the park's propensity for cutting down singles while boosting home runs and isolated power.
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  11. #40
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I find this thread very interesting. I understand that there are different views on the importance of contact hitting. Sorry, but I can't agree that making contact is somehow a negative. (Nobody is suggesting coaching hitters to swing at bad pitches.)

    Having spoken out for contact hitting, I don't think hitting coaches are the main way to accomplish this. I agree that tinkering with major league hitters is often counterproductive.

    I do think the Reds need more of an emphasis on contact hitting. At GABP, you don't need to hit the ball 500 feet. A batter who can consistently drive the ball can get a fair number of home runs even if he lacks the power of a guy like Dunn. (Not arguing against Dunn; just making an overall point; with the right surrounding cast, Dunn would be more effective.)

    In any event, I think Krivsky (rightly or wrongly) shares these views and it will be interesting to see how he implements them.
    And there's where the rub is. When you start swing at balls which you normally wouldn't, you don't drive them (or at least not as often). If you could drive that pitch, you would've been swinging already.

    Guys like Dunn aren't passing up singles because they want homers. Rather, they are passing up balls that they can't make good contact on. It just so happens that when they make good contact, the ball goes a real long way.

    If you swing at every thing, well then you become a Pete Rose type hitter. Sure, you might rack up a lot of singles that you otherwise would've missed out on. But at the end of the day, you've also hit in to a lot more outs that may otherwise have been walks. As Cyclone shows, the balance of gain in extra singles and an occasional extra base hit doesn't help as much as the walks and many fewer outs.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-24-2006 at 08:02 PM.
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  12. #41
    Member LINEDRIVER's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds View Post
    From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinal -- link to full article, which is mostly Brewer related.
    So, Butch Wynegar is apparently in the running for the Reds' hitting coach job. Apparently??? Based on what? Something the writer saw, something he heard, something he pulled out of his rear-end?? I would like to be reading a better detailed explanation other just 'apparently'.

    Is this just another fine example of today's sportswriter working to get his own speculation to pass off as fact?

    .
    Last edited by LINEDRIVER; 10-24-2006 at 09:03 PM.

  13. #42
    1st pick 2022 B.B. draft George Foster's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    This is correct if you are Jose Hernandez. Not if you are Adam Dunn.

    Because regardless of K's, Dunn still manages 100 BB's a year. So all of those K's could have been popouts to 2B, and his numbers would have been exactly the same.

    Now if he can turn K's into hits or BB's, I'm for that. But to just tell a guy to cut down on K's is over simplistic. That's a round about way of saying get more hits. Hey, I'm for that too.

    Except I don't want power hitters doinking singles because they changed their approach so much they can't hit for power. .340 with 10 HR's ain't as productive as .250 with 40 HR's. Especially if the walk totals DON'T stay the same. If the OBP is the same, gimme the 40 jacks.
    But with a runner on 3rd with one out or no outs, putting the ball in play and like Dunn who pulls the ball more often than not, a ground out to second scores a run....a strike out does not. His RBI numbers proves my point...they should of been at least 20 higher for the season. He had like 92 on August 30th.
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  14. #43
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by George Foster View Post
    But with a runner on 3rd with one out or no outs, putting the ball in play and like Dunn who pulls the ball more often than not, a ground out to second scores a run....a strike out does not. His RBI numbers proves my point...they should of been at least 20 higher for the season. He had like 92 on August 30th.
    That's still not the point. If Dunn chokes up and simply trys to put the ball in play, his walks will go down and his power will too. He may become better at getting the runner on 3rd home in that situation, but it will also lead to Dunn hitting for much less power, and likely will get on base less. Especially with Dunn's skill set, I don't think it's a very good idea.

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    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Who said anything about Dunn choking up? Even if he did, which I don't propose, an inch off his bat isn't going to turn the powerful Dunn into Felix Millan or Bud Harrelson. They used to talk about Ted Kluszewski hitting one handed shots into the seats at Crosley field. A powerful player like Dunn does not have to swing out of his shoes all the time to hit the ball with power, particularly in the home ballpark he plays in. Klu was a powerful hitter who made adjustments and was a professional hitter. You don't have to sacrifice power to hit for a better average. You have to swing at better pitches and make contact more often. No one is proposing that Dunn swing at balls out of the strikezone. It is no secret to me that while Dunn has a good eye at the plate, he swings at plenty of bad pitches on a lot of those strikeouts.
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  16. #45
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN CHAR NC View Post
    Who said anything about Dunn choking up? Even if he did, which I don't propose, an inch off his bat isn't going to turn the powerful Dunn into Felix Millan or Bud Harrelson. They used to talk about Ted Kluszewski hitting one handed shots into the seats at Crosley field. A powerful player like Dunn does not have to swing out of his shoes all the time to hit the ball with power, particularly in the home ballpark he plays in. Klu was a powerful hitter who made adjustments and was a professional hitter. You don't have to sacrifice power to hit for a better average. You have to swing at better pitches and make contact more often. No one is proposing that Dunn swing at balls out of the strikezone. It is no secret to me that while Dunn has a good eye at the plate, he swings at plenty of bad pitches on a lot of those strikeouts.
    Eric Davis was a solid example. Excellent wrist speed. The guy could turn on a pitch.
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