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Thread: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

  1. #46
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    Brilliant observation on applying the park factor to contact hitting, vatican, and I think you're absolutely right that contact hitting in GABP is more of a detriment than most other parks. For that, Retrosheet is our friend.

    GABP park factor by component, 2003-05:

    Aids: Home Runs
    Neutral: Doubles and Strikeouts
    Suppresses: Singles, Triples and Walks


    If contact hitting results in less isolated power, which there's evidence for, then contact hitting in GABP is not ideal given the park's propensity for cutting down singles while boosting home runs and isolated power.
    One interesting point is that the Reds were 13th in the NL in doubles.

    The Reds took advantage of the home run benefit of the park, 3rd in the league. And I can understand the point that singles hitters may not be helped by GABP.

    But if GABP is "doubles neutral" then the Reds hitters, 13th in the league in that department, were deficient in that department.

    When you consider that overall the Reds did poorly in hits and runs in 2006; and consider that they took advantage of GABP's home run propensity; and further consider that the park is a poor place to "go for singles" (and triples); then where should the improvement come?

    I would have thought the park would suppress doubles. If it is, in fact, neutral, then that is a statistic in which the Reds need to improve next year.

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  3. #47
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    This is real simple ... if the Reds want to score more runs they need to focus on increasing OBP and SLG%, that's just the way it is. Replace ABs with players likely to have a higher OPS and the Reds will score more. Right now looking forward to 2007 the Reds offense looks to be a disaster.

    HOW one increases those two statistics is NOT important, just that they do. Positing about more walks/less hits, more doubles/less HRs, less Ks, etc is nothing but throwing out a red herring because those things just don't matter.
    Last edited by flyer85; 10-25-2006 at 12:50 PM.
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  4. #48
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Ricardo Cabesa View Post
    This is real simple ... if the Reds want to score more runs they need to focus on increasing OBP and SLG%, that's just the way it is. Replace ABs with players likely to have a higher OPS and the Reds will score more. Right now looking forward to 2007 the Reds offense looks to be a disaster.

    HOW one increases those two statistics is NOT important, just that they do. Positing about more walks/less hits, more doubles/less HRs, less Ks, etc is nothing but throwing out a red herring because those things just don't matter.
    Exactly. If they bring in a guy who can hit .360, that will certainly help the team's OBP, so I'd be in favor of it. (Of course, it opens up another can of worms, but that's beside the point.)
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    One interesting point is that the Reds were 13th in the NL in doubles.

    The Reds took advantage of the home run benefit of the park, 3rd in the league. And I can understand the point that singles hitters may not be helped by GABP.

    But if GABP is "doubles neutral" then the Reds hitters, 13th in the league in that department, were deficient in that department.

    When you consider that overall the Reds did poorly in hits and runs in 2006; and consider that they took advantage of GABP's home run propensity; and further consider that the park is a poor place to "go for singles" (and triples); then where should the improvement come?

    I would have thought the park would suppress doubles. If it is, in fact, neutral, then that is a statistic in which the Reds need to improve next year.
    I'd love to see more doubles out of this offense. Doubles boost slugging percentages and also help clean up inefficiencies in an offense, and the Reds had some inefficiencies they need to work on getting cleaned up.

    One quick and easy way to boost the team's doubles rate is to ensure that Edwin Encarnacion plays every day. In 701 major league plate appearances (full seasons are 650+ PAs), Encarnacion has 49 doubles. He's a 45-50 doubles per season machine waiting to happen if he plays every day, and that'd be a nice fixture right in the middle of the lineup.
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Ricardo Cabesa View Post
    This is real simple ... if the Reds want to score more runs they need to focus on increasing OBP and SLG%, that's just the way it is. Replace ABs with players likely to have a higher OPS and the Reds will score more. Right now looking forward to 2007 the Reds offense looks to be a disaster.

    HOW one increases those two statistics is NOT important, just that they do. Positing about more walks/less hits, more doubles/less HRs, less Ks, etc is nothing but throwing out a red herring because those things just don't matter.

    Players don't hit OBPs and SLGs. They hit singles, doubles, triples and homers. And walks.

    If you want to have a higher slugging percentage, you need more extra base hits.

    If you want to have a higher OBP, you need more hits and walks.

    OBPs and SLGs don't happen by themselves.

    The Reds have shown good ability to hit home runs. They have shown good ability to get walks.

    They do poorly in getting singles, doubles and triples.

    Any good management needs to focus on this with specificity and try and improve the weak areas, hopefully without hurting the strong areas.

  7. #51
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    They've also seen their Walk totals and their Runs Scored totals decrease each year.
    Dude..walks suck, they are boring, hacking at every pitch is the Key..just ask the Tigers.
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  8. #52
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Players don't hit OBPs and SLGs. They hit singles, doubles, triples and homers. And walks.

    If you want to have a higher slugging percentage, you need more extra base hits.

    If you want to have a higher OBP, you need more hits and walks.

    OBPs and SLGs don't happen by themselves.

    The Reds have shown good ability to hit home runs. They have shown good ability to get walks.

    They do poorly in getting singles, doubles and triples.

    Any good management needs to focus on this with specificity and try and improve the weak areas, hopefully without hurting the strong areas.
    By that same token, players don't focus on hitting doubles or triples. They focus on getting a pitch they can hit and making quality contact. When you do that, your OBP and SLG go up, even if your singles, doubles, and triples totals don't.
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  9. #53
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    If you want to have a higher slugging percentage, you need more extra base hits.
    You don't. You need more bases per AB. How you do it not important and it can be done without more extra base hits.

    Any good management needs to focus on this with specificity and try and improve the weak areas, hopefully without hurting the strong areas.
    it better not be "hopefully" otherwise your treading water ... or worse.

    The point is "less strikeouts" is nowhere in the equation.
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  10. #54
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Giving up offense for mediocre pitching and defense is much more of a concern than strikeouts for this team, IMHO.
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Well now the Brewers are reportedly interviewing Chambliss...

    Brewers talk to Chambliss
    Posted: Oct. 25, 2006
    St. Louis - Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin said manager Ned Yost had interviewed Chris Chambliss for the club's vacant hitting coach position. Chambliss, dismissed by the Cincinnati Reds after the 2006 season, was the first candidate interviewed from outside of the organization.

    The Reds, meanwhile, have interviewed Butch Wynegar, who was fired by the Brewers, to fill Chambliss' spot on their staff. Melvin said he interviewed Alan Trammell for the club's first-base coaching, but the next day Trammell accepted a two-year deal to be the Chicago Cubs' bench coach.

    Yost also interviewed Brewers minor-league coach Mike Lum for the hitting job.

    "We'll probably fill the hitting coach job sooner than the first-base job," said Melvin, who is attending the World Series.

  12. #56
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds View Post
    Well now the Brewers are reportedly interviewing Chambliss...
    This squelches the idea that Krivsky was being courteous and letting Chambliss go to pursue a managerial career. :thumbdown

    I wonder if the Brewers are smart enough to hire him?
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  13. #57
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    This squelches the idea that Krivsky was being courteous and letting Chambliss go to pursue a managerial career. :thumbdown

    I wonder if the Brewers are smart enough to hire him?
    No. IIRC there were stories in the Cincy papers after Chambliss was let go that stated he was being held accountable for the team's second half slump.

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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Cincy Post...Oct. 12:

    Reds' ax falls on Chambliss
    Hitting coach told he won't be back

    By Marc Lancaster

    Chris Chambliss spent three seasons working with the Reds' hitters. He won't be back for a fourth.

    As Chris Chambliss drove down I-75 last week from Cincinnati to his home near Atlanta, he had every reason to believe he would be back as the Reds' hitting coach in 2007.

    Then, his cell phone rang. Reds manager Jerry Narron was on the other end, and he told his former New York Yankees teammate he wouldn't be offered a contract for next season.

    Chambliss was caught completely off-guard. He fully expected to return for his fourth season with the Reds and said no one had given him reason to believe he wasn't doing an adequate job.

    "I expected to stay with Jerry," Chambliss said Wednesday. "That's all I can say. I did expect to be back and I was never told there were any issues with me before."
    The former big-league outfielder said Narron told him the Reds' offensive slump over the final six weeks - and possible factors behind it - played a large part in the decision.

    "He wasn't happy with the fact that players didn't make good adjustments in the second half, especially down the stretch," said Chambliss, who added that he heard no such concerns prior to his firing.

    "If they thought something else should have been said to them, it wasn't relayed to me," he said. "I worked with the guys, I talked to them in the cages every day. I don't know what's going on, I really don't, as far as that's concerned."

    The Reds' offense did go into a collective tailspin after the All-Star break, when the numbers dropped off across the board. It culminated in a stretch during August and September that saw Cincinnati grapple to score any runs. Through the final day of August, the Reds had averaged 4.91 runs per game. Over the last 28 games of the season, though, Cincinnati managed just 3.25 runs per game.

    It must be noted that the Reds played the entire second half without a quarter of their usual starting eight from the first half, as Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez were traded to Washington on July 13. But the production of almost every player that remained dwindled to miserable levels late in the year.

    Aside from Rich Aurilia, who hit .344 with 17 RBIs in 90 at-bats from Sept. 1 on, it seemed every Reds hitter disappeared in the final month. Only two other players managed more than five RBIs the rest of the way - David Ross with nine and Brandon Phillips with eight.

    Of course, Phillips (.149) and Ross (.179) also were a significant part of the problem down the stretch. Add their woes at the plate to Adam Dunn's .161 average, Scott Hatteberg's .206 and Edwin Encarnacion's .205 and it's easy to see why the Reds couldn't score.

    The ax had to fall somewhere, and Chambliss got it - even if, as one of his closest pupils said, he didn't necessarily deserve it.

    "I love the guy," Dunn said Wednesday. "But you can't fire all of us. We're the ones who should be accountable, but we're not the guys who can get fired. I mean, we can, but it's just bad, because if we'd played good, he's still got his job."

    "With Chris, it's like telling somebody in your family that you're going to replace them," Narron said. "The guy worked hard, he's a true professional. I've known him since the mid-'70s and he's just an outstanding man of character who works extremely hard. We just really felt like, to get some guys to make some adjustments, we had to give them a little bit of a different direction, and that's what we're doing."

  15. #59
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed View Post
    Dude..walks suck, they are boring, hacking at every pitch is the Key..just ask the Tigers.
    Who said that on this thread? Just a little bit of a leap on your part.
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    Re: Report: Butch Wynegar candidate for Reds Hitting Coach

    [QUOTE=KronoRed;1183903]Dude..walks suck, they are boring.../QUOTE]

    while walking and 'waiting on the three run homerun' is the most efficient and often victorious offensive approach, i will say it is very boring to watch most of the time. but as long as it's winning, it goes from being boring to exciting. there in lies the Reds' problem the last few years.
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