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Thread: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

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  1. #1
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    BA's Chris Kline just put together positional rankings. Joey Votto came out on top of what he called "a rather uninspring list of first basemen." Still, it's major feather in Joey's cap seeing that he'd all but lost his prospect status a year ago.

    Homer Bailey finished behind Phillip Hughes (Yankees). Delmon Young (D-Rays) and Billy Butler (Royals) beat out Jay Bruce. Seeing that Butler's a DH with a glove on his hand for show, I'm guessing Bruce will eclipse him once he proves he can hit in the upper minors, though that might not happen until 2008.

    Here's the link, though you need a BA subscription to see it:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/onlin...es/262606.html

    Other guys on the lists who interest me include Alberto Callaspo (#2 at 2B, but the D-Backs have the O-Dog at 2B), Erick Aybar (#4 at SS, sandwiched between two other Angels shortstops on the list and stuck behind Orlando Cabrera on the team depth chart) and Chris Young (#4 in CF, supposedly he'd be Reds property but for Carl Lindner shooting down the deal to get him).
    Last edited by M2; 10-24-2006 at 02:26 PM.
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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    I've been saying this for a while now, but the best chance for the Reds to be respectable in 2007 is for Votto to win the 1B job. IMO every decent line-up needs 4 guys who can slug .450. Votto would get us there (with Dunn, EE and Griffey. If Ross repeats it could be 5 but I want 4 not counting on Ross). I don't really see it coming from anywhere else. Getting that 4th guy makes it easier to carry a glove at SS and Deno in CF.

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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    I agree the Reds need a power upgrade at 1B, but I'm not particularly high on Votto's chances of making the leap next year. He likely needs a year in AAA even if he is the real thing.
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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    Unfortunately, I don't think we'll even get the chance to find out. 1B is Hat's, possibly split with a journeyman RH hitter.

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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Unfortunately, I don't think we'll even get the chance to find out. 1B is Hat's, possibly split with a journeyman RH hitter.
    I'm usually very against this situation, but I don't have a big problem with JV (Votto that is) being down at AAA. He really struggled with his first big jump to high A from low. Make sure he can ease into AAA, then ease him in to our lineup in July with a Hatte trade, or leave him down til september if we are out of it. If we are in the race, I would like him up in July.

    Have him ready for 08. That is a year we gain $14 mil in payroll by losing Milton and Larue. That is good.
    Last edited by TOBTTReds; 10-24-2006 at 10:34 PM.

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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    I'm usually very against this situation, but I don't have a big problem with JV (Votto that is) being down at AAA. He really struggled with his first big jump to high A from low. Make sure he can ease into AAA, then ease him in to our lineup in July with a Hatte trade, or leave him down til september if we are out of it. If we are in the race, I would like him up in July.

    Have him ready for 08. That is a year we gain $14 mil in payroll by losing Milton and Larue. That is good.
    You are probably right, but I don't fear challenging a good fundamental hitter like Votto. He's not a pitcher.

    I too think 2008 is the time to really contend. I'm just observing that 2007 looks bleak w/o an upgrade to the offense. Not much help at the open spots (SS) and no need to commit long term to a FA at spots where help is on the way. Votto is the best chance to upgrade IMO.

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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    Votto definitely needs PT somehow. Hatteberg deserves the job starting out, but if he falters at all, or if Votto is raking at AAA, ditch Hatteberg for a prospect and bring on the future. Look at what EdE did last season and what he did this season. I'd hate for us to find ourselves 7 games back in May 2007 because Votto is still adjusting to ML pitchers.

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    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I've been saying this for a while now, but the best chance for the Reds to be respectable in 2007 is for Votto to win the 1B job.
    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Unfortunately, I don't think we'll even get the chance to find out. 1B is Hat's, possibly split with a journeyman RH hitter.
    It would be a good thing for the Reds if Votto can win the job and slug .450 out of the gate, but it would be a bad idea to make offseason plans around the assumption that he will. At the same time, the team doesn't want to commit much in money or time to a player who's subject to being moved out of the way at some point. Ergo, Scott Hatteberg on a one-year deal.
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    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    It would be a good thing for the Reds if Votto can win the job and slug .450 out of the gate, but it would be a bad idea to make offseason plans around the assumption that he will. At the same time, the team doesn't want to commit much in money or time to a player who's subject to being moved out of the way at some point. Ergo, Scott Hatteberg on a one-year deal.
    Generally agree, but I think counting on Hat is a worse plan. He has a strong pattern of poor years in odd numbered years. He slumped in the second half and though his OBP could stay .350+, I expect the slugging to fall to below .400. Hat is cheap enough to have a bench role where I believe he would be an asset and could always take over if Votto needs more time in AAA. If Votto does well, he makes the line-up work as the 4th power threat. Hat doesn't provide that possibility.

    The reds no longer have 3 power guys in the OF or power at SS. Carrying a non-power guy at 1B is more problematic with Deno/Freel in an OF spot and glove man of the day at SS.

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    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Generally agree, but I think counting on Hat is a worse plan. He has a strong pattern of poor years in odd numbered years. He slumped in the second half and though his OBP could stay .350+, I expect the slugging to fall to below .400. Hat is cheap enough to have a bench role where I believe he would be an asset and could always take over if Votto needs more time in AAA. If Votto does well, he makes the line-up work as the 4th power threat. Hat doesn't provide that possibility.
    The reason I put it the way I did is that Votto hasn't had ANY time at Triple-A. Not a single plate appearance above the Southern League. At his age and experience level, having him win the first-base job in spring training is more of a wish than a plan. You simply can't expect him to be the power threat you're wanting right out of the gate. Hope, yes. Expect, no. Which is why the sensible thing is to start Votto in Louisville and let his performance, and Hatteberg's, make the call.

    For what it's worth, the same general situation applies to Homer Bailey. It's nice to dream about him taking spring by storm and winning a rotation spot, but you wouldn't want to hand it to him right now or plan on him doing so.
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    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    The reason I put it the way I did is that Votto hasn't had ANY time at Triple-A. Not a single plate appearance above the Southern League. At his age and experience level, having him win the first-base job in spring training is more of a wish than a plan. You simply can't expect him to be the power threat you're wanting right out of the gate. Hope, yes. Expect, no. Which is why the sensible thing is to start Votto in Louisville and let his performance, and Hatteberg's, make the call.

    For what it's worth, the same general situation applies to Homer Bailey. It's nice to dream about him taking spring by storm and winning a rotation spot, but you wouldn't want to hand it to him right now or plan on him doing so.
    Your right, but I'd be willing to jump a level with a hitter. If it works the Reds would have an ok line-up. If it doesn't, Hat is not an asset as an everyday 1B IMO so nothing is lost. And yes its a hope (as opposed to no hope with Hat). As you point out, they really can't go out and get anyone with Votto on the way so the Hat option is logical. Its just, if that is the road they take it will be a long year IMO. I think Hat should be the fall back plan with Votto getting first shot. If Votto comes through, the Reds line-up doesn't look so bad. If Hat has a decent year, he still doesn't give the line-up what it needs IMO. If those are the only two choices (and they really are) then I go with Votto until he proves otherwise. They still need to get a RH hitter to play against lefties for a year or two even if Votto takes the 1B against righty role.

    As for Bailey, I wouldn't make the jump with him. Pitchers are different than hitters.

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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    I'd like to see Votto up by mid-07 so that he can be one of the lineup anchors in 08. I agree with mth123 -- he's fundamentally very sound, so I see little risk in getting him in there against major league pitchers this coming year.

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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    What's the scouting report on Votto. Why did he struggle in high A and then destroy AA this year. Is he making adjustments to his approach? Handling offspeed stuff better? Learning to hit lefties? Also, is his speed for real or is it just him taking advantage of good spots and pitchers with slow deliveries?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    Why did he struggle in high A and then destroy AA this year.
    The reports have been that the mandated take-a-strike approach instituted under O'Brien really screwed him up. If you look at his 2004, when he went from low A to a nice few weeks at high A, you shouldn't be all that surprised to see him excel 2 years later at AA. The base stealing is a new development -- haven't heard where that comes from, but I doubt the Reds will want him to pursue 20+ bags a year much longer, if at all.

  15. #15
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: BA rates Votto #1 at 1B, Homer #2 RHP and Bruce #3 corner OF

    Joey Votto gained some speed this year. Last offseason he hired a personal trainer to help him build muscle and gain speed for this season. It obviously helped him out.


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