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Thread: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    2007 Cincinnati Reds

    The Reds are next up on our 2007 Team Outlooks.

    Wayne Krivsky's contract obligations as he remakes the Reds in the Twins' image:

    C - David Ross - $0.5MM
    C - Javier Valentin - $1.25MM
    C - Jason LaRue - $5.2MM
    1B - Scott Hatteberg - $1.5MM
    2B - Brandon Phillips - $0.33MM
    SS -
    3B - Edwin Encarnacion - $0.3325MM
    IF - Juan Castro - $0.925MM
    LF - Adam Dunn - $10.5MM
    CF - Ken Griffey Jr. - $6MM (another $6.5MM is deferred)
    RF - Ryan Freel - $1.7MM
    OF - Chris Denorfia - $0.327MM

    SP - Aaron Harang - $2.35MM
    SP - Bronson Arroyo - $3.8MM
    SP - Kyle Lohse - $4MM
    SP - Eric Milton - $9MM
    SP - Elizardo Ramirez - $0.33MM
    SP - Homer Bailey - $0.33MM

    RP - Rheal Cormier - $2.25MM
    RP - Gary Majewski - $0.352MM
    RP - Matt Belisle - $0.3435MM
    RP - Todd Coffey - $0.339MM
    RP - Bill Bray - $0.33MM
    RP - Brian Shackelford - $0.33MM
    RP - Jason Standridge - $0.33MM

    Buyouts:

    SP - Paul Wilson - $0.85MM
    IF - Rich Aurilia - $0.2MM

    Injured:

    SP - Brandon Claussen - $0.37MM (shoulder surgery August 2006)

    I have the Reds at about $54-56MM depending on arbitration raises. They entered 2006 with a $61MM payroll. So, not that much to play with unless bigger salaries like Dunn or LaRue are unloaded.

    On the catching situation: LaRue just had an awful year, basically becoming Aaron Harang's personal catcher and nothing more. He's being paid like a #1, and would like to regain his job or be traded. If the Reds eat some salary maybe the Phillies would have interest. Ross posted some surprising career bests in 250 ABs; it probably can't hold up over another 400. He's only got three years of service time so the Reds should have his rights for a while.

    With a heavy dose of right-handed pitching, Hatteberg bounced back with an .826 OPS. He'll keep the seat warm for a good price until Joey Votto is ready. Votto is one of the game's very best 1B prospects. Hatteberg seems to be Krivsky's only acknowledgement of the importance of OBP.

    Phillips certainly looks like a capable 2B and a great find by Krivsky. There's been some talk of using him at shortstop; he played the position as recently as Triple A in 2005. He only got a brief trial there in '06 with the Reds; my feeling is that he'll remain at second and the team will import a shortstop.

    Let's just hope that Castro doesn't spend too much time as the starting SS. Interestingly, the Reds asked about Miguel Tejada in July. For Tejada to fit in the payroll, I think Adam Dunn would have to be involved. I haven't heard any specific names, but some other options at short include Julio Lugo, Jack Wilson, Alex Cintron, and Alex Gonzalez. It might've been nice to have Felipe Lopez around.

    Encarnacion looks like a future star at 3B, and Rich Aurilia probably won't be around to take any starts over there. Aurilia isn't much of a starting SS, so he'll probably price himself too high for the Reds to keep him as a backup.

    The outfield is pretty well set, with Denorfia finding plenty of work when Griffey is hurt. Jerry Narron would prefer to move Freel around and play him four days a week, so Denorfia can find PT in right as well.

    The front of the rotation looks solid, with Arroyo and Harang placing #1 and #3 in innings pitched in all of baseball. 40% of the time, those guys will take a load off a weak bullpen. Lohse wasn't awful as a Red, showing decent command. You'd rather have him as your fourth starter, but that's life. The Reds only have endure one more year of the Milton Mistake.

    Ideally the Reds can work in superprospect Homer Bailey in place of the worst of Lohse, Milton, or Ramirez. Until that's sorted out a bullpen intro to the bigs wouldn't be a horrible idea. Last year's 138 pro innings was a career high for the 20 year-old phenom. If he can keep the walks down, Bailey should be very tough to score upon even as a rookie.

    The Reds hope midseason acquisitions Majewski and Bray are healthy and effective in '07. If so, it has the potential to be a decent 'pen. The Reds are still lacking that one shutdown reliever to use in the ninth inning, however. There's nothing on the closer market, so the Reds will have to hope someone can step up.

    Cincinnati has a middle-of-the-pack offense right now. A full season without Austin Kearns or Felipe Lopez plus a possible trade of Dunn could weaken it even further. The pitching looks mediocre as well, especially factoring in some regression for Arroyo. The Reds are not a bad team, but they would probably need one more good starter, an impact hitter, and a bullpen ace to be favored in the division in 2007.

    Instead of trying to compete in 2007, the Reds might be better off shooting for '08. Votto, Bailey, and other prospects will have had time to develop. Encarnacion could be a star. Milton and LaRue will be off the books. The 2008 club could be a few wise expenditures away from contention.

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    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post
    SP - Aaron Harang - $2.35MM
    SP - Bronson Arroyo - $3.8MM
    SP - Kyle Lohse - $4MM
    SP - Eric Milton - $9MM
    SP - Elizardo Ramirez - $0.33MM
    SP - Homer Bailey - $0.33MM
    SP - Paul Wilson - $0.85MM


    Eric Milton is not far from making almost as much as the rest of our starting rotation PUT TOGETHER.

    He makes some good points about 2008.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum View Post


    Eric Milton is not far from making almost as much as the rest of our starting rotation PUT TOGETHER.

    He makes some good points about 2008.
    The good news is that this will be the last year of his contract.

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    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    Agree completely. 2008 is the year to shoot for. We'll have bad contracts off the books (LaRue, Milton, Griffey) and our younger prospects (EE, Votto, Bailey) will have experience behind them. Any players that you want around after 2008 better be addressed this offseason, IMO. Give Harang, EE, maybe Phillips those longer deals to keep them here for under market value.
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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Leader View Post
    Agree completely. 2008 is the year to shoot for. We'll have bad contracts off the books (LaRue, Milton, Griffey) and our younger prospects (EE, Votto, Bailey) will have experience behind them. Any players that you want around after 2008 better be addressed this offseason, IMO. Give Harang, EE, maybe Phillips those longer deals to keep them here for under market value.
    This is the last year of Griffey's contract?

    My God we are going to have alot of money to work with next offseason.

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    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    Isn't Griffey signed through 2008?
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

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    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    SP - Aaron Harang - $2.35MM
    This number will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher on opening day -- either with an arbitration win by Harang on the strength of his #1 in Ks and #3 in IP season in the NL or with (knock on wood) a brand-spanking new multi-year deal that keeps him as a centerpiece of the Reds rotation for the next couple years.

    I don't throw the word around lightly, but "moronic" would be a good way to describe not tying Harang down for AT LEAST as long as Arroyo is slated to remain in a Reds uniform.
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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    This number will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher on opening day -- either with an arbitration win by Harang on the strength of his #1 in Ks and #3 in IP season in the NL or with (knock on wood) a brand-spanking new multi-year deal that keeps him as a centerpiece of the Reds rotation for the next couple years.

    I don't throw the word around lightly, but "moronic" would be a good way to describe not tying Harang down for AT LEAST as long as Arroyo is slated to remain in a Reds uniform.
    Agree totally. No way Harang makes less than 5 million next season. It might not be a bad option to sign him long term. 5 mil. 2007, 6.5 mil. 2008, 8.5 mil. 2009, and club option for 2010 for 11 mil.

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    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    There are some posters around here that would find out that not competing in 2007 will make them jump the bridge.

    I would also think that in 2007 that if the Reds slide back, there's gonna be a managerial change.
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

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    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    2008? Stupid.
    redsrule2500
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post

    I have the Reds at about $54-56MM depending on arbitration raises. They entered 2006 with a $61MM payroll. So, not that much to play with unless bigger salaries like Dunn or LaRue are unloaded.
    This is completely false. The club will have roughly $15-25mil to spend this offseason with the new tv contract and MLBAM profits.

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    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    2008? Stupid.
    Thanks as always for your candid, careful analysis. Care to elaborate?
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

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    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    We haven't competed for over 6 years already, a new profit is coming to the club, we came off a year in which we weree CLOSE to competing.

    If we don't compete now, narron will be fired and other changes will occur, contracts will end. It just doesn't make sense in my opinion.
    redsrule2500
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    We haven't competed for over 6 years already, a new profit is coming to the club, we came off a year in which we weree CLOSE to competing.

    If we don't compete now, narron will be fired and other changes will occur, contracts will end. It just doesn't make sense in my opinion.
    I thought we competed until the next-to-last day of the season. No?

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    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Reds From MLBTradeRumors.com

    Quote Originally Posted by BrooklynRedz View Post
    I thought we competed until the next-to-last day of the season. No?
    even better!
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