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Thread: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

  1. #1
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    Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    Haven't heard any one mention his name around here. Unless the Brewers have re-signed him, which I don't think they have, he is a free agent to be.

    This would be a great guy to have on our staff. He is 30 years old and was paid 2.75 mil this year. What do others think?

    Code:
    NAME        ERA WHIP   H9  SLG  FB%  GB%  
    Tomo Ohka 4.82  1.37 9.09 .420  28.4% 42.6%
    He has had a lot of injury problems. But wouldn't be a bad risk IMO. He is still relatively cheap.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    His GB/FB isn't really an advantage these days as it's floated around 1/1 for a few years. He doesn't miss bats, posting an abysmal K/9 rates the last 3 years. He uses a lot of pitches, making him mostly a 5 innings guy. If I could get him as a 5th starter for 1.5-2MM tops for a year or two, sure I guess. Certainly not a guy I'd target or give 3+ years to though.

    For a 5th starter, I'd be just as happy giving Claussen and Ramirez the chance to battle it out as they're both younger, cheaper, and have slightly more upside.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    Ohka's got some butt ugly peripherals, but he's always gotten the job done (career 111 ERA+). You wouldn't want to spend a lot on him because you can't be sure when he hits his expiration date, but if he's inexpensive then he's a not a bad roll of the dice.
    Last edited by M2; 11-07-2006 at 03:01 PM.
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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    looks good an upgrade over michalak, et al.

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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    His GB/FB isn't really an advantage these days as it's floated around 1/1 for a few years. He doesn't miss bats, posting an abysmal K/9 rates the last 3 years. He uses a lot of pitches, making him mostly a 5 innings guy. If I could get him as a 5th starter for 1.5-2MM tops for a year or two, sure I guess. Certainly not a guy I'd target or give 3+ years to though.

    For a 5th starter, I'd be just as happy giving Claussen and Ramirez the chance to battle it out as they're both younger, cheaper, and have slightly more upside.
    As for the gb/fb ratio, don't know if it was an accident or not, but his 28% FB rate is decent enough.

    For guys that had as many innings as he did (146 pitchers) he ranked 67th in pitches per inning, tied with AJ Burnett and Arroyo. So he is still in the upper half of that barely and he was coming off an injury.

    I think he is worth a shot around 2.5 mil per for 2 years with incentives.

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    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    Quote Originally Posted by redsupport View Post
    looks good an upgrade over michalak, et al.
    I'm an upgrade over Michalak. So is Raisor. And we're both cheaper. (Not easier, but cheaper. )

    As long as Ohka doesn't want the bank - he needs a one year - low risk deal
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    As for the gb/fb ratio, don't know if it was an accident or not, but his 28% FB rate is decent enough.

    For guys that had as many innings as he did (146 pitchers) he ranked 67th in pitches per inning, tied with AJ Burnett and Arroyo. So he is still in the upper half of that barely and he was coming off an injury.

    I think he is worth a shot around 2.5 mil per for 2 years with incentives.
    I'm not sure where you got the 28% FB rate at, but Fangraphs.com has him at 40 GB, 40 FB, 20 LD. His HR rate is average, but not a particular asset. I'm much more worried about a guy who averages less than 90 P/GS, more than 16 P/IP, and can't miss many bats. Put a below average defense behind him and look out.

    I think 2.5 million isn't horrible, but I just don't see much of an upside. I'm a fan of using the 5th spot in the rotation to give innings to a guy who needs them to reach (or definitely fail to reach) his potential, rather than a veteran who you know will cap out at 160-180 below league average innings. If you're making a playoff push and need certainty, sure. But when you're still fishing for #3 starters, you need to keep opportunity open for younger, cheaper guys who can likely give you the same level of performance anyways. You only pay 2.5 million for essentially replacement level when that certainty is the difference between the playoffs and not.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-07-2006 at 03:48 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    While I agree that a better starter than Ohka should be a priority. He's been quite a bit better than replacement level during his career.

    Now, I'm not sold that it will continue, but he does have a better career ERA+ than either Arroyo or Harang. If he's generally healthy, he's not a bad bet to give you league average performance, not a bad thing to have in the #4 slot.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'm much more worried about a guy who averages less than 90 P/GS, more than 16 P/IP, and can't miss many bats. Put a below average defense behind him and look out.
    I agree with the 90 P/GS. I got the GB rate from baseball prospectus, it was for this year only.

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    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    with the signing of Dick Pole, i love the idea of Tomo Ohka for 2-3 million with a heavy incentive contract.
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    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    I'd be surprised to see Ohka sign anywhere for less than $4 million.
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    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    I'd be surprised to see Ohka sign anywhere for less than $4 million.
    Yep...agree.

    Which begs the question. For the same price - who do you want, Lohse or Ohka?

    We're on the hook for 4 Mill either way.
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath View Post
    Yep...agree.

    Which begs the question. For the same price - who do you want, Lohse or Ohka?

    We're on the hook for 4 Mill either way.
    Ohka times 2. I have no faith in Lohse.

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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    I wouldn't touch Ohka with a ten foot Dick Pole.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

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    Re: Tomo Ohka - Free Agent

    I would only sign guys like this if I have Dave Duncan or Leo Mazone as my pitching coach....and then, they probably would threaten to quite if I tried.

    I was just wondering the other day why the Cards can take Chris Carpenter (with a blown out shoulder) and many others like him who are below average pitchers and suddenly have tehm in the running for the Cy Young.

    The same with the Braves while Mazone was there.....look at John Thompson as an example.....there are others.

    Can anybody explain this one to me?
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