You can't expect the ownership to take a $20 million dollar bath every year. I think "breaking even" is all you can ask for of an owner. If $75 million is it....then that's that.
Not this year...maybe a Wild Card
Seems to me you can't really play the "can't be done" card in regard to pitching-for-offense acquisitions when it's already been done; and by the same General Manager to boot.
Sorry, man, but calling MWM's position "laughable" and then following it up with a logical gaffe of that magnitude is really inexcusable.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
Yup. Silly as it is, you've got it nailed.
Even sillier is that some still try to defend the move.
I desperately want Wayne to succeed, but one more move like this and the club is sunk for years.
Wayne's pushed the red button once; what makes anyone think he won't do it again? Boy, do I hope he doesn't do it again.
"We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn
Even before the trade went down and people were screaming at Krivsky to do something/anything to fix this bullpen, myself and ochre stated that it would behoove this FO, because of the market, not to make a panic trade, but to wait until the off-season. And when the trade went down I stated I didn't like it. More so for the loss of Kearns then Lopez. I just don't believe it was a trade that will teribbly hurt or doom this organization.
No one, including myself, has ever said you didn't have a right to your opinion. That is what this forum is about. Just as much as I have the right to express my opinion that disagrees.But I have an opinion and it's a legit one. It's been debated ad nauseum on this forum since the trade happened, and I'm not going to rehash it here. But if you need to call the opposing viewpoint laughable (especially after the results), then go right ahead. And you've been around here long enough to know that I've alwasy been considered a pessimist. I've been accused on multiple of occassions of "undervaluing" Reds players. So it is possible to have the opinion that more could have been had for those two without being someone who overvalues Reds players. Because I don't.
Funny- I've been laughed at many a times on here, and rightly so, concerning statements and positions I've made. I just don't get all worked up over it, and take it with a grain of salt. That is what this forum is all about.
But this thread, which I started, is not about the trade, but concerning the Reds using sound judgment and good decision making during this off-season's FA market and their quest to improve this pitching staff.
I didn't state that they shouldn't bother or make any effort or use small market excuses. Just use caution.
Last edited by GAC; 11-12-2006 at 09:30 PM.
"panic" only comes from having real expectations
The Free Agent Starter Market is even worse than we all think.
First you take away Brad Radke and Mark Mulder (Injured)
Next you can't really call Andy Pettite, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, David Wells or Mike Mussina on the market. They are only available to a couple teams that meet some personal criteria.
That leaves a market of Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, Ted Lilly, Vicente Padilla, Randy Wolf, Adam Eaton, Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, Tomo Ohka, Gil Meche, Kip Wells, Bruce Chen, Mark Redman, Tony Armas Jr, Miguel Batista, Brian Moehler, Orlando Hernandez, Steve Trachsel, Jason Marquis, Woody Williams, Jamey Wright, Ramon Ortiz and John Thomson.
Of that group the guys with a WHIP Below 1.40: Schmidt, Padilla, Williams, Ohka and Hernandez during his NY time. Only Schmidt, Williams and Orlando Hernandez in NY are below Eric Milton's 1.34.
Guys with a K Rate/9 above 6.50: Orlando Hernandez, Zito, Lilly, Meche, Schmidt, Padilla, Wolf. Brandon Claussen and Kyle Lohse both qualify.
Guys with a HR Rate/9 below 1.00 (Lohse rate in Cincy) :Schmidt, Padilla, Suppan, Kip Wells, Batista, Jamey Wright.
Guys with an OPS against less than .773 (Lohse in Cincy): Schmidt, Williams, Ohka, Padilla, Zito, Lilly, Meche and Orlando Hernandez during his NY stint.
To get a real upgrade there are only 5 to 10 guys. (Schmidt, Zito, Lilly, Padilla probably; maybe Ohka, Armas or Suppan. Wolf on an incentive deal.) They are all risky in one way or another. They'll all cost major money. The rest are similar to the current group of Reds suspects IMO and some of those will cost major money as well.
But Sheffield is more of an established player with a performance record as compared to Kearns. All that can be said of Kearns is that he is young and has a upside.
As far as pitching goes?... No. That is just my opinion based on the tightness of the market and what pitchers (if any) I saw going anywhere this past summer. Other then a Maddux going to L.A., show me where all the huge pitcher deals/trades were being made this past season? No one wanted a Jeff Weaver. He was basically kicked off the L.A. team.Do you really think that the Reds got as much as they could have (then or now) in that deal?
As I have already stated before. I wouldn't have made the trade at all, and waited.
vaticumplum stated this (and I agree)....
Example: You want a Barry Zito, Rameriz, or Carlos Lee, then you had better be ready to throw some money their way because bigger market teams are.
My whole point is about using caution and a levelheadedness in this market. Do your homework, zero in on a pitcher or two that will fill that need, and then make a serious effort at acquiring them. If another team wants them, then make them outbid us for their services.
Just stay away from the Weavers, Marquis', and Mulders!
"panic" only comes from having real expectations
Thanks for the research/list.
Now (everyone).... who on that list would you eliminate and then really zero in on and throw some serious cash at? Because it is gonna take some cash.
Could we afford to throw a 5 yr/75 Mil contract at Zito, even knowing that a Milton contract is gone after '07? And would Zito even consider playing in Cincy. That is a factor also that has to be considered when going after a player.
Last edited by GAC; 11-12-2006 at 09:39 PM.
"panic" only comes from having real expectations
GAC, I completely agree with you. WK acted like AK and FeLo's contracts were expiring on 7/14/06 and that was his only option. He should have held and waited...but then he dumped the old "the market is sky-high for relievers". It just amazed me when he traded for pitchers like Lohse when pitchers like Weaver were available for basically nothing.
I am actually scared for this off-season. Only God knows what WK is planning. Besides EdE, Phillips, Harang and Bronson, I don't think I would care if anyone else got traded. As long as the return is legit.
I think Lilly would be an excellent acquisition, and it seems like he will be cheap compared to others in the league. It has been a long time since this team actually had 5 ML starters in the rotation. I don't think they need Zito or Schmidt, but how about 5 names that people actually recognize and don't laugh at when I recite their #4 and 5 starters? People not coming off major surgery, or people who you don't think "Wait, he's still in the league?"
So the plan should be getting 3 other pitchers who can actually help the team win. Actually, two is all they need. Put Homer in AAA and call him up if the #5 (whoever he may be) starts the year with a 7 ERA.
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
The thing is, cash is relatively easy to replace. At least it's easier to come up with cash than to come up with tradeable talent.
The Reds don't have much talent that they can afford to trade. At this point, thanks to the AK/FeLo disaster, they're better off overspending cash than giving up talent.
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
For all the worrying about our pitching, and I agree there's still lots of room to improve, we had an above average team ERA and a below average number of runs scored. A singular focus on pitching may not be what's best for us. It's not like there's a ton of high quality free agents, but there's an argument to be made that it would be smart to lay low this year, let everybody else spend their new TV money on inflated contracts. Make a few shrewd value trades to fill the bench and the back of the bullpen and then make a run at some guys next year.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
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