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Thread: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

  1. #16
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum View Post
    Absolutely. Every team knows that. The caveat that the Reds need to add is: Spending a lot of money does not equal spending it wisely (see: Milton, Eric). But other times, spending money wisely does involve spending a lot of it.
    Well said. There is no necessary connection between spending money and getting ripped off. Often when you spend money you get far more value than when you go dumpster diving (cf. St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds).

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  3. #17
    1st pick 2022 B.B. draft George Foster's Avatar
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    I'm tired of the old "we can't afford good players" excuse. Other teams with similar resources as the Reds find a way to make it happen without playing the small market card.
    We can't afford some of the free agents out there today because of past mistakes. Griffey, Milton, LaRue, etc.

    You can't expect the ownership to take a $20 million dollar bath every year. I think "breaking even" is all you can ask for of an owner. If $75 million is it....then that's that.
    Not this year...maybe a Wild Card

  4. #18
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Respectfully it is Mike if you think Lopez and/or Kearns could have really landed and improved this pitching staff. No GM in their right mind would divest themselves of pitching for the likes of those two in this market.
    Then how'd the Reds acquire Bronson Arroyo?

    Seems to me you can't really play the "can't be done" card in regard to pitching-for-offense acquisitions when it's already been done; and by the same General Manager to boot.

    Sorry, man, but calling MWM's position "laughable" and then following it up with a logical gaffe of that magnitude is really inexcusable.
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  5. #19
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Then how'd the Reds acquire Bronson Arroyo?

    Seems to me you can't really play the "can't be done" card in regard to pitching-for-offense acquisitions when it's already been done; and by the same General Manager to boot.

    Sorry, man, but calling MWM's position "laughable" and then following it up with a logical gaffe of that magnitude is really inexcusable.
    Generally accepted: AK > Wily Mo

    Wily Mo = Bronson

    ...

    AK + FeLo = Majew + Bray???
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    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS View Post
    Generally accepted: AK > Wily Mo

    Wily Mo = Bronson

    ...

    AK + FeLo = Majew + Bray???

    Yup. Silly as it is, you've got it nailed.

    Even sillier is that some still try to defend the move.

    I desperately want Wayne to succeed, but one more move like this and the club is sunk for years.

    Wayne's pushed the red button once; what makes anyone think he won't do it again? Boy, do I hope he doesn't do it again.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  7. #21
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    GAC, keep defending everything the Reds ever do if it makes you feel better and keep laughing at those who are willing to be critical of poor moves.
    I've not defended EVERYTHING the Reds do Mike. Why don't you do some research from this past summer on things that I have said.

    Even before the trade went down and people were screaming at Krivsky to do something/anything to fix this bullpen, myself and ochre stated that it would behoove this FO, because of the market, not to make a panic trade, but to wait until the off-season. And when the trade went down I stated I didn't like it. More so for the loss of Kearns then Lopez. I just don't believe it was a trade that will teribbly hurt or doom this organization.

    But I have an opinion and it's a legit one. It's been debated ad nauseum on this forum since the trade happened, and I'm not going to rehash it here. But if you need to call the opposing viewpoint laughable (especially after the results), then go right ahead. And you've been around here long enough to know that I've alwasy been considered a pessimist. I've been accused on multiple of occassions of "undervaluing" Reds players. So it is possible to have the opinion that more could have been had for those two without being someone who overvalues Reds players. Because I don't.
    No one, including myself, has ever said you didn't have a right to your opinion. That is what this forum is about. Just as much as I have the right to express my opinion that disagrees.

    Funny- I've been laughed at many a times on here, and rightly so, concerning statements and positions I've made. I just don't get all worked up over it, and take it with a grain of salt. That is what this forum is all about.

    But this thread, which I started, is not about the trade, but concerning the Reds using sound judgment and good decision making during this off-season's FA market and their quest to improve this pitching staff.

    I didn't state that they shouldn't bother or make any effort or use small market excuses. Just use caution.
    Last edited by GAC; 11-12-2006 at 08:30 PM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  8. #22
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    The Free Agent Starter Market is even worse than we all think.

    First you take away Brad Radke and Mark Mulder (Injured)
    Next you can't really call Andy Pettite, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, David Wells or Mike Mussina on the market. They are only available to a couple teams that meet some personal criteria.

    That leaves a market of Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, Ted Lilly, Vicente Padilla, Randy Wolf, Adam Eaton, Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, Tomo Ohka, Gil Meche, Kip Wells, Bruce Chen, Mark Redman, Tony Armas Jr, Miguel Batista, Brian Moehler, Orlando Hernandez, Steve Trachsel, Jason Marquis, Woody Williams, Jamey Wright, Ramon Ortiz and John Thomson.

    Of that group the guys with a WHIP Below 1.40: Schmidt, Padilla, Williams, Ohka and Hernandez during his NY time. Only Schmidt, Williams and Orlando Hernandez in NY are below Eric Milton's 1.34.

    Guys with a K Rate/9 above 6.50: Orlando Hernandez, Zito, Lilly, Meche, Schmidt, Padilla, Wolf. Brandon Claussen and Kyle Lohse both qualify.

    Guys with a HR Rate/9 below 1.00 (Lohse rate in Cincy) :Schmidt, Padilla, Suppan, Kip Wells, Batista, Jamey Wright.

    Guys with an OPS against less than .773 (Lohse in Cincy): Schmidt, Williams, Ohka, Padilla, Zito, Lilly, Meche and Orlando Hernandez during his NY stint.

    To get a real upgrade there are only 5 to 10 guys. (Schmidt, Zito, Lilly, Padilla probably; maybe Ohka, Armas or Suppan. Wolf on an incentive deal.) They are all risky in one way or another. They'll all cost major money. The rest are similar to the current group of Reds suspects IMO and some of those will cost major money as well.

  9. #23
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I understand your point, but look at what Sheffield got and, unbelievably, Jaret Wright(!!!) will be getting a usable RP from Baltimore.

    I fully understand that Kearns isn't Sheff, but : (i) AK is much younger with carry-on baggage compared to what Sheff has and (ii) AK is bargain basement $$$ in comparison. Not saying that AK should have gotten the same thing, but I think Sheff got way too much.
    Those are perfect examples of other teams foolishness. A "foolishness" that I want our team to simply avoid when searching in this market. We've been there, done that.

    But Sheffield is more of an established player with a performance record as compared to Kearns. All that can be said of Kearns is that he is young and has a upside.

    Do you really think that the Reds got as much as they could have (then or now) in that deal?
    As far as pitching goes?... No. That is just my opinion based on the tightness of the market and what pitchers (if any) I saw going anywhere this past summer. Other then a Maddux going to L.A., show me where all the huge pitcher deals/trades were being made this past season? No one wanted a Jeff Weaver. He was basically kicked off the L.A. team.

    As I have already stated before. I wouldn't have made the trade at all, and waited.



    vaticumplum stated this (and I agree)....

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum View Post
    While I don't advocate throwing money around foolishly, I do think it's important to understand the general market and the dearth and therefore high cost of good free agents. In other words:

    it's not simply about spending money, but spending it wisely.
    I have no problem whatsoever with paying out a large/longterm contract for a proven player (pitcher or position) that would fill a need and improve this team. Spending wisely is not necessarily meant to spend cheap. Being cheap means coming home empty handed from the store.

    Example: You want a Barry Zito, Rameriz, or Carlos Lee, then you had better be ready to throw some money their way because bigger market teams are.

    My whole point is about using caution and a levelheadedness in this market. Do your homework, zero in on a pitcher or two that will fill that need, and then make a serious effort at acquiring them. If another team wants them, then make them outbid us for their services.

    Just stay away from the Weavers, Marquis', and Mulders!
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  10. #24
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    The Free Agent Starter Market is even worse than we all think.

    First you take away Brad Radke and Mark Mulder (Injured)
    Next you can't really call Andy Pettite, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, David Wells or Mike Mussina on the market. They are only available to a couple teams that meet some personal criteria.

    That leaves a market of Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, Ted Lilly, Vicente Padilla, Randy Wolf, Adam Eaton, Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, Tomo Ohka, Gil Meche, Kip Wells, Bruce Chen, Mark Redman, Tony Armas Jr, Miguel Batista, Brian Moehler, Orlando Hernandez, Steve Trachsel, Jason Marquis, Woody Williams, Jamey Wright, Ramon Ortiz and John Thomson.

    Of that group the guys with a WHIP Below 1.40: Schmidt, Padilla, Williams, Ohka and Hernandez during his NY time. Only Schmidt, Williams and Orlando Hernandez in NY are below Eric Milton's 1.34.

    Guys with a K Rate/9 above 6.50: Orlando Hernandez, Zito, Lilly, Meche, Schmidt, Padilla, Wolf. Brandon Claussen and Kyle Lohse both qualify.

    Guys with a HR Rate/9 below 1.00 (Lohse rate in Cincy) :Schmidt, Padilla, Suppan, Kip Wells, Batista, Jamey Wright.

    Guys with an OPS against less than .773 (Lohse in Cincy): Schmidt, Williams, Ohka, Padilla, Zito, Lilly, Meche and Orlando Hernandez during his NY stint.

    To get a real upgrade there are only 5 to 10 guys. (Schmidt, Zito, Lilly, Padilla probably; maybe Ohka, Armas or Suppan. Wolf on an incentive deal.) They are all risky in one way or another. They'll all cost major money. The rest are similar to the current group of Reds suspects IMO and some of those will cost major money as well.
    Good post, and a perfect example that better exemplifies what I am trying to express by starting this thread.

    Thanks for the research/list.

    Now (everyone).... who on that list would you eliminate and then really zero in on and throw some serious cash at? Because it is gonna take some cash.

    Could we afford to throw a 5 yr/75 Mil contract at Zito, even knowing that a Milton contract is gone after '07? And would Zito even consider playing in Cincy. That is a factor also that has to be considered when going after a player.
    Last edited by GAC; 11-12-2006 at 08:39 PM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  11. #25
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    GAC, I completely agree with you. WK acted like AK and FeLo's contracts were expiring on 7/14/06 and that was his only option. He should have held and waited...but then he dumped the old "the market is sky-high for relievers". It just amazed me when he traded for pitchers like Lohse when pitchers like Weaver were available for basically nothing.

    I am actually scared for this off-season. Only God knows what WK is planning. Besides EdE, Phillips, Harang and Bronson, I don't think I would care if anyone else got traded. As long as the return is legit.

    I think Lilly would be an excellent acquisition, and it seems like he will be cheap compared to others in the league. It has been a long time since this team actually had 5 ML starters in the rotation. I don't think they need Zito or Schmidt, but how about 5 names that people actually recognize and don't laugh at when I recite their #4 and 5 starters? People not coming off major surgery, or people who you don't think "Wait, he's still in the league?"

    So the plan should be getting 3 other pitchers who can actually help the team win. Actually, two is all they need. Put Homer in AAA and call him up if the #5 (whoever he may be) starts the year with a 7 ERA.

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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    GAC, I completely agree with you. WK acted like AK and FeLo's contracts were expiring on 7/14/06 and that was his only option. He should have held and waited...but then he dumped the old "the market is sky-high for relievers". It just amazed me when he traded for pitchers like Lohse when pitchers like Weaver were available for basically nothing.

    I am actually scared for this off-season. Only God knows what WK is planning. Besides EdE, Phillips, Harang and Bronson, I don't think I would care if anyone else got traded. As long as the return is legit.

    I think Lilly would be an excellent acquisition, and it seems like he will be cheap compared to others in the league. It has been a long time since this team actually had 5 ML starters in the rotation. I don't think they need Zito or Schmidt, but how about 5 names that people actually recognize and don't laugh at when I recite their #4 and 5 starters? People not coming off major surgery, or people who you don't think "Wait, he's still in the league?"

    So the plan should be getting 3 other pitchers who can actually help the team win. Actually, two is all they need. Put Homer in AAA and call him up if the #5 (whoever he may be) starts the year with a 7 ERA.
    Honestly I think this team's problems are much greater than the starting pitching. My opinion is that this team has so many holes that we should try to fix the others before we "overpay" for some very poor options at starter. WayneK scares me because he has already proven to me that he "can" make very poor decisions under pressure. I hope the pressure doesn't get to him and we have a deal worse than Milton. I'm telling you it could easily happen.
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  13. #27
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    Quote Originally Posted by paulrichjr View Post
    Honestly I think this team's problems are much greater than the starting pitching. My opinion is that this team has so many holes that we should try to fix the others before we "overpay" for some very poor options at starter. WayneK scares me because he has already proven to me that he "can" make very poor decisions under pressure. I hope the pressure doesn't get to him and we have a deal worse than Milton. I'm telling you it could easily happen.
    Starting pitching can mask more holes than any other position on the field. It's the best place to start.

  14. #28
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    The thing is, cash is relatively easy to replace. At least it's easier to come up with cash than to come up with tradeable talent.

    The Reds don't have much talent that they can afford to trade. At this point, thanks to the AK/FeLo disaster, they're better off overspending cash than giving up talent.
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  15. #29
    You know his story Redsland's Avatar
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    The Free Agent Starter Market is even worse than we all think.

    First you take away Brad Radke and Mark Mulder (Injured)
    Next you can't really call Andy Pettite, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, David Wells or Mike Mussina on the market. They are only available to a couple teams that meet some personal criteria.

    That leaves a market of Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, Ted Lilly, Vicente Padilla, Randy Wolf, Adam Eaton, Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, Tomo Ohka, Gil Meche, Kip Wells, Bruce Chen, Mark Redman, Tony Armas Jr, Miguel Batista, Brian Moehler, Orlando Hernandez, Steve Trachsel, Jason Marquis, Woody Williams, Jamey Wright, Ramon Ortiz and John Thomson.

    Of that group the guys with a WHIP Below 1.40: Schmidt, Padilla, Williams, Ohka and Hernandez during his NY time. Only Schmidt, Williams and Orlando Hernandez in NY are below Eric Milton's 1.34.

    Guys with a K Rate/9 above 6.50: Orlando Hernandez, Zito, Lilly, Meche, Schmidt, Padilla, Wolf. Brandon Claussen and Kyle Lohse both qualify.

    Guys with a HR Rate/9 below 1.00 (Lohse rate in Cincy) :Schmidt, Padilla, Suppan, Kip Wells, Batista, Jamey Wright.

    Guys with an OPS against less than .773 (Lohse in Cincy): Schmidt, Williams, Ohka, Padilla, Zito, Lilly, Meche and Orlando Hernandez during his NY stint.

    To get a real upgrade there are only 5 to 10 guys. (Schmidt, Zito, Lilly, Padilla probably; maybe Ohka, Armas or Suppan. Wolf on an incentive deal.) They are all risky in one way or another. They'll all cost major money. The rest are similar to the current group of Reds suspects IMO and some of those will cost major money as well.
    That's a stellar post right there.

    Makes all the routine posts.

  16. #30
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Here's Why I Think The Reds Will Have A Tough Time This Winter...

    For all the worrying about our pitching, and I agree there's still lots of room to improve, we had an above average team ERA and a below average number of runs scored. A singular focus on pitching may not be what's best for us. It's not like there's a ton of high quality free agents, but there's an argument to be made that it would be smart to lay low this year, let everybody else spend their new TV money on inflated contracts. Make a few shrewd value trades to fill the bench and the back of the bullpen and then make a run at some guys next year.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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