Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 10 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 137

Thread: Adam Dunn

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,989

    Adam Dunn

    Most of you know that I tend to run with the stat-head crew that says Adam Dunn is great, ignore the strikeouts, OBP is life, etc. I just wanted to take a minute to address the fact that Dunn is both underrated and overvalued on this board. The basic premise is this: Adam Dunn is the Reds most important offensive player. However, his production, while somewhat unique in it's characteristics, is not irreplaceable -- not by a long shot.

    Some observations:
    - Adam Dunn is 27 years old.
    - Adam Dunn has over 3400 career plate appearances.
    - Adam Dunn has a career BA of .245, OBP of .380, and SLG of .513.
    - All three of those values have decreased each of the last two seasons.
    - Last year, Dunn was ranked 21st in OPS for OF in MLB, 15th in LF by VORP (behind such players as Raul Ibanez, Reed Johnson, and Chris Duncan).
    - Adam Dunn is one of the worst defensive OF in baseball.
    - Adam Dunn is 6-6, at least 280 lbs, and showing no signs of losing weight anytime soon.
    - Adam Dunn is going to make $10.5 MM in 2007, $13 MM in '08 if he is a member of the Reds.
    - In 2004 Dunn had a 19.3%/32.4%/48.3% LD/GB/FB ratio with a BABIP of .321, a 16.0 BB%, and a 34.3 K%.
    - In 2006 Dunn had a 23.5%/27.8%/48.6% LD/GB/FB ratio with a BABIP of .278, a 16.6 BB%, and a 34.6 K%

    Some inferences:
    - Dunn is a very productive player offensively who would be an asset to any team.
    - Dunn is no longer cheap and probably won't be ever again; particularly to the Reds.
    - While Dunn could be a Albert Pujols type if he hit .300, he hasn't yet hit .300 and banking on him doing so in the future is not intelligent.
    - His future likely lies at 1B or DH due to the effect age has on people of his body type.
    - Though durable to date, over the next few years, it would not be a surprise to see him accrue increased levels of wear and tear type injuries such as back or feet problems.
    - Because of the nature of his skill set, he's not likely to age well. Arguably, his batting eye and power are likely at their peak and could only see minimal improvement. However, his bat speed and hand/eye coordination will likely degenerate, lowering his contact rate.
    - Maybe last year was an abberation. Maybe 2004 was the abberation. My money is on 2004.

    Some conclusions:
    - It's time to stop valuing Dunn based on potential and start valuing him based on reality.
    - Yes, some players take great leaps later in their careers, like Luis Gonzalez. These players are the exception, not the rule. Dunn is likely to follow the rule and decline after a late 20's peak.
    - Reality says that Adam Dunn is a very good, not great, offensive contributor and a poor defender.
    - Reality says that Adam Dunn is not improving offensively, and that his 2006 performance was not a function of bad luck any more than 2004 was a function of good luck.
    - Because of his plateaued performance and increased salary, his value has been established. There is no value in taking a "wait & see" approach like many (including myself) argued for Austin Kearns.

    The rose is in bloom people. This is Adam Dunn. He's a guy who hits .245 with 40 homers and a boatload of walks, while striking out 190 times and playing a shaky LF. That might be worth $10.5 MM to the Reds in 2007. It might be worth $13 MM in '08. However, he's not irreplaceable. He's as much Carlos Lee as he is Lance Berkman. As much Pat Burrell as he is Jim Thome. He's not even CLOSE to what Ryan Howard just did.

    Now our particular circumstance may increase his value to us as we're so shallow offensively. I'd happily have Dunn as a cog in my lineup for the next 5-6 years at a reasonable price (say 12MM). However, his trade value to the other 29 teams is not what some people want to make it out to be. He's not as valuable as he was when he OPS'd .957 and hit 46 homers as a 24 year old. We need to be realistic about his value to us, his value in the market place, and the likely yearly production we're going to see over his career arc. There should be no untouchables on the Reds, and Dunn has as many warts as virtues. If we can get a somewhat comparable offensive player while adding talent elsewhere, I think it should be done.

    My suggestion was Brian Giles (remember, we have Dunn for 2 more years, that's it), Scott Linebrink, and a prospect. I'm open to keeping Dunn too. I just hate all the back and forth with so little agreement. It doesn't seem like there should be so much debate that can't even agree on the terms from which arguments are based.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-14-2006 at 07:23 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member Crosley68's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2000
    Location
    West Virginia
    Posts
    955

    Re: Adam Dunn

    Nothing like reality to smack you in the face. Good analysis.
    Let's play two!!!

  4. #3
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Springfield, Ohio
    Posts
    9,052

    Re: Adam Dunn

    Yes very nice. I might argue that he could make a physical adjustment and become alot more potent over the next 5-6 years offensively speaking. But he is probably more likely to stay where he is for reasons I can't completely figure (although I have my opinions).

    But his defense will never be any better, he is simply not fleet of foot enough to be an everyday OF. I could live with him in LF for a few more years to some degree if the rest of the OF was above average defensively but it's probably going to be awhile before that happens.

    Bottom line he needs to step it up this coming season for the good of this team's present and future.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  5. #4
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    The 303
    Posts
    2,536

    Re: Adam Dunn

    You advocate trading Dunn, and picking up Giles?

    Not sure I'm on board with that. Trading "old players skills" of one for another...
    "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."

    -Hunter S. Thompson

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN
    Posts
    7,173

    Re: Adam Dunn

    edit never mind i'm an idiot.
    Last edited by Hoosier Red; 11-14-2006 at 06:37 PM.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
    ---Joe Posnanski

  7. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,989

    Re: Adam Dunn

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco View Post
    You advocate trading Dunn, and picking up Giles?

    Not sure I'm on board with that. Trading "old players skills" of one for another...
    I agree. Giles isn't "the answer". Very few players are, Dunn included; hence the entire point of my analysis. In my opinion, you don't build a team for 5 years from now. You build an organization when you're looking that far out. You build a team for this year and maybe the next 1 or 2. We only have Dunn's rights for 2 years. Giles is signed at 9MM per through his '09 option year. I'll take Giles for the 2007, '08, and maybe '09 seasons. I think you can reasonably expect an OPS in the .850 range over those 3 years and certainly much better defense. More importantly, I get one of the most effective relievers in baseball to fill a need in the bullpen, while also grabbing some talent with upside for long term. Giles and Linebrink combined will make less money than Dunn in the next 2 years and I believe provide more value.

    The real point of my entire post is that the haters need to realize that Dunn is a very productive player, despite his problems. Others need to realize that while a very productive player, Dunn has limits, which he may have reached, that his value is both established and likely peaked, and that his contributions on the field are not irreplaceable.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-14-2006 at 06:41 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #7
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    7,441

    Re: Adam Dunn

    Great post RMR. Seems like generally a fair and accurate assement that cuts to the chase.

    I think Dunner is destined to be the target of much scorn in years to come no matter what takes place. Fact is, while he is critical to our offense he will never have the trade value we think he should have because of our skewed perspective. So if he's traded Kriv will take a beating because he "should have gotten so much more" acording to the ever so objective home fans. Yet, without Dunn our offense takes a beating (barring a different big trade, a big FA pick up or trading for several not so big bats to add up to Dunns big bat).

    If he stays here and produces at the same level Dunn will continue to take the beating of "he should do this" and "he should do that". If his production goes down nobody is happy.

    Seems like the only way this can work out is for Dunn to start dating Kristie Alley, slim down and magically hit 50HR and 120 RBI for the rest of his life.

    This story will not end well I tell you.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 11-14-2006 at 08:24 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  9. #8
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,762

    Re: Adam Dunn

    Good post RMR and you are correct in your analysis. I disagree in one area though. As a Dunn backer I don't necessarily value him as high on the market as some of the suggestions would have you believe. Its just if you take his production out you have to get way over market value in return to keep the organization from going back to square one. Maybe square one would mean a championship caliber team in 5 years. Maybe not. I'd rather try to have some hope now so I keep him and build around him unless the deal gives me immediate hope. Trading him for unprovens doesn't make sense to me because they are not likely to ever be as good as the current version of Adam Dunn. I don't really believe any team will give that much, so you have to keep him. That is the situation that the Reds are in.

    And I am not a believer in the assumption that we can take his money and go buy a replacement. Those guys don't sign in places like Cincinnati. The savings from trading Adam Dunn will be pissed away on the mediocre IMO much like the savings from trading Casey last year was. Mediocre players are the only ones who'll take the Reds money (that will be especially true if Dunn or a high profile replacement isn't here). You'll get 2 or 3 guys like Jamey Wright, Matt Stairs and with some luck Pedro Feliz. Then the $13 Million will be gone and the team will be dominated by consolation prizes.

    Even the current flawed version of Dunn is a premium player and even though RMR is right on in his assessment, the Reds have to get a premium player back. Trade him for a bag of mediocre and use the money to buy more mediocre? No I'd just keep him if I couldn't get my unrealistic demands.

    Oh, and he'd be awful at 1B IMO and would make Phillips, EE and whoever plays SS awful as well. He does less damage in LF.

  10. #9
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,989

    Re: Adam Dunn

    Thanks for the compliment mth, but therein lies the rub. How do you get $1.20 for your $1.00 when, as we apparently agree, your $1.00 is only really worth $0.85? Maybe I'm wrong, and he suddenly appreciates in value. Problem solved. Maybe you find somebody who can't count and gives you 5 quarters for that "dollar". Problem solved again. Or maybe you just realize that you have 85 cents and realize, hey, that ain't so bad. I can do quite a bit with 85 cents...

    This is a bit of a conundrum that was pretty well stated in another thread. If you keep Dunn, and he performs around his current .900 OPS level, you aren't getting enough production to get what you need from him. (there is most definitely an argument to be had regarding his actual dollar value) If you're WK, and you just made a deal where you get less than your perceived dollars worth, you probably don't have the political capital to do it again - so you better find somebody will to give you his perceived value. So basically, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. See, the problem is in wishcasting his actual current value, not how to make the best of it.

    This assumption of his irreplaceable value creates the dilemma in which the only positive outcome is Dunn truly turning in to that 1.050 OPS monster we all hope he can become. If Krivsky can't afford to trade him for actual fair value (say, Giles and Linebrink, or Thames and Robertson, etc.) because of perception, he's going to have to hitch his cart to Dunn and pray he learns how make contact more often without lowering his power or walk rates (steel and cyclone can tell you how often that happens). Or else, he's going to be faced with an equally unappetizing choice of trying to sign Dunn for his "real" value long term, overpay him long term, or trying again to trade him for his perceived value before his contract runs up. Tell me how much his value will increase as he gets closer to FA.

    Again, don't get me wrong. I think Dunn is a very, very good, productive player and I want him on my team. However, I want management to proplerly value him such that we're not paying him for what he might someday become or pretend that we had the talent in place and it simply didn't perform up to our expectations. Adam Dunn creates a lot runs for an offense. He costs you a few on defense, but in the big picture, not a huge deal. However, you can't pretend he's Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez and you certainly can't pay him like he is. The best bet is to properly assess his value to the Reds, and make whatever move(s) best increase our chances of winning games now and in the future. I think that means making a fair, realistic offer to keep him around, and should he choose not to take it, to find the best way to maximize the value of the asset he represents -- be that now, or in the next two years. Personally, I think you start shopping now and don't stop shopping until you sign the deal or make the trade.

    An aside, one comment I've seen elsewhere in defense of Dunn is the "uniqueness" of his skill set. I won't deny that his combination of skills is pretty darn rare, if not unique. However, unique does not necessarily mean value. The contents of my garbage can are unique in their combination. Whether or not that combination is of any value is a completley different subject. This is a stamp collection where rarity equals value. In baseball, production equals value. Albert Pujols is valuable because his level of production is uniquely incredible. Dunn is valuable because his level of production is really darn good. Maybe there is some aesthetic value to having such a unique player on your team. Personally, I'd rather win ballgames - unique or not.

    Another aside, nothing against Dunn personally in any way, we all have our talents and his are certainly more valuable than mine, but I'm willing to be I've written more on him today, than he's ever written about himself. The man likes to fish, hunt, and play sports -- and he's probably good at all three. I like to pretend I sort of know how to make an argument on a largely unimportant fansite on which I spent lots of time and don't make a dime. I envy him and wish him the best.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-15-2006 at 12:18 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #10
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    13,790

    Re: Adam Dunn

    .900 OPS isn't good enough???
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  12. #11
    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    2,908

    Re: Adam Dunn

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Good post RMR and you are correct in your analysis. I disagree in one area though. As a Dunn backer I don't necessarily value him as high on the market as some of the suggestions would have you believe. Its just if you take his production out you have to get way over market value in return to keep the organization from going back to square one. Maybe square one would mean a championship caliber team in 5 years. Maybe not. I'd rather try to have some hope now so I keep him and build around him unless the deal gives me immediate hope. Trading him for unprovens doesn't make sense to me because they are not likely to ever be as good as the current version of Adam Dunn. I don't really believe any team will give that much, so you have to keep him. That is the situation that the Reds are in.

    And I am not a believer in the assumption that we can take his money and go buy a replacement. Those guys don't sign in places like Cincinnati. The savings from trading Adam Dunn will be pissed away on the mediocre IMO much like the savings from trading Casey last year was. Mediocre players are the only ones who'll take the Reds money (that will be especially true if Dunn or a high profile replacement isn't here). You'll get 2 or 3 guys like Jamey Wright, Matt Stairs and with some luck Pedro Feliz. Then the $13 Million will be gone and the team will be dominated by consolation prizes.

    Even the current flawed version of Dunn is a premium player and even though RMR is right on in his assessment, the Reds have to get a premium player back. Trade him for a bag of mediocre and use the money to buy more mediocre? No I'd just keep him if I couldn't get my unrealistic demands.

    Oh, and he'd be awful at 1B IMO and would make Phillips, EE and whoever plays SS awful as well. He does less damage in LF.
    You obviously have ignored the final and most important statistic: team wins. Dunn folded like a tent when it counted, as did, granted, other players. This is not a winning team, and a major shift in the makeup is necessary. Dunn was a layup out in the stretch. But hey, Ryan Howard, with the same skill set, was a champ. Stop measuring Dunn against the league, measure him against other "franchise" players, and how they perform when the championship is on the line, and see how he measures up then. And this is not "hatred" of Adam Dunn. 1) I think to each degree he helps the team he hurts it and 2) I don't find his style of play entertaining. I have no feelings about it one way or another. In the same way those who are fans of statistics are not "blind love" with Dunn. Now as for Bob Boone, I hated him. But posters and mods have to expect, that each time I see a post lauding Dunn to the sky, I'm going to respond. I have initiated no posts with Dunn as a subject for a while, yet when I make a response to a Dunn apologists thread I'm told to "get over it." Well those people truly need to get over the fact that someone disagrees with them. There's the real emotional hurdle...
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

  13. #12
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Posts
    5,815

    Re: Adam Dunn

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    You obviously have ignored the final and most important statistic: team wins. Dunn folded like a tent when it counted, as did, granted, other players. This is not a winning team, and a major shift in the makeup is necessary. Dunn was a layup out in the stretch. But hey, Ryan Howard, with the same skill set, was a champ. Stop measuring Dunn against the league, measure him against other "franchise" players, and how they perform when the championship is on the line, and see how he measures up then. And this is not "hatred" of Adam Dunn. 1) I think to each degree he helps the team he hurts it and 2) I don't find his style of play entertaining. I have no feelings about it one way or another. In the same way those who are fans of statistics are not "blind love" with Dunn. Now as for Bob Boone, I hated him. But posters and mods have to expect, that each time I see a post lauding Dunn to the sky, I'm going to respond. I have initiated no posts with Dunn as a subject for a while, yet when I make a response to a Dunn apologists thread I'm told to "get over it." Well those people truly need to get over the fact that someone disagrees with them. There's the real emotional hurdle...
    You obviously ignore the fact that the Reds would not have been anywhere near a play off race without Adam Dunn.

    Eighther you are blided by hatred or ignorant of the game.

    Dunn is not and will never be the best All Around Player on the Club. The cold hard fact of life is that Dunn produces runs. THAT'S A FACT.

  14. #13
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,762

    Re: Adam Dunn

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Thanks for the compliment mth, but therein lies the rub. How do you get $1.20 for your $1.00 when, as we apparently agree, your $1.00 is only really worth $0.85? Maybe I'm wrong, and he suddenly appreciates in value. Problem solved. Maybe you find somebody who can't count and gives you 5 quarters for that "dollar". Problem solved again. Or maybe you just realize that you have 85 cents and realize, hey, that ain't so bad. I can do quite a bit with 85 cents...

    This is a bit of a conundrum that was pretty well stated in another thread. If you keep Dunn, and he performs around his current .900 OPS level, you aren't getting enough production to get what you need from him. (there is most definitely an argument to be had regarding his actual dollar value) If you're WK, and you just made a deal where you get less than your perceived dollars worth, you probably don't have the political capital to do it again - so you better find somebody will to give you his perceived value. So basically, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. See, the problem is in wishcasting his actual current value, not how to make the best of it.

    This assumption of his irreplaceable value creates the dilemma in which the only positive outcome is Dunn truly turning in to that 1.050 OPS monster we all hope he can become. If Krivsky can't afford to trade him for actual fair value (say, Giles and Linebrink, or Thames and Robertson, etc.) because of perception, he's going to have to hitch his cart to Dunn and pray he learns how make contact more often without lowering his power or walk rates (steel and cyclone can tell you how often that happens). Or else, he's going to be faced with an equally unappetizing choice of trying to sign Dunn for his "real" value long term, overpay him long term, or trying again to trade him for his perceived value before his contract runs up. Tell me how much his value will increase as he gets closer to FA.

    Again, don't get me wrong. I think Dunn is a very, very good, productive player and I want him on my team. However, I want management to proplerly value him such that we're not paying him for what he might someday become or pretend that we had the talent in place and it simply didn't perform up to our expectations. Adam Dunn creates a lot runs for an offense. He costs you a few on defense, but in the big picture, not a huge deal. However, you can't pretend he's Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez and you certainly can't pay him like he is. The best bet is to properly assess his value to the Reds, and make whatever move(s) best increase our chances of winning games now and in the future. I think that means making a fair, realistic offer to keep him around, and should he choose not to take it, to find the best way to maximize the value of the asset he represents -- be that now, or in the next two years. Personally, I think you start shopping now and don't stop shopping until you sign the deal or make the trade.

    An aside, one comment I've seen elsewhere in defense of Dunn is the "uniqueness" of his skill set. I won't deny that his combination of skills is pretty darn rare, if not unique. However, unique does not necessarily mean value. The contents of my garbage can are unique in their combination. Whether or not that combination is of any value is a completley different subject. This is a stamp collection where rarity equals value. In baseball, production equals value. Albert Pujols is valuable because his level of production is uniquely incredible. Dunn is valuable because his level of production is really darn good. Maybe there is some aesthetic value to having such a unique player on your team. Personally, I'd rather win ballgames - unique or not.

    Another aside, nothing against Dunn personally in any way, we all have our talents and his are certainly more valuable than mine, but I'm willing to be I've written more on him today, than he's ever written about himself. The man likes to fish, hunt, and play sports -- and he's probably good at all three. I like to pretend I sort of know how to make an argument on a largely unimportant fansite on which I spent lots of time and don't make a dime. I envy him and wish him the best.
    Good post. I agree there isn't a perfect answer. The most likely is that 2006 was a bad year and keeping him is the way to get the most value. He may not be 2004 again. But something like 2005 wouldn't be a bad guy to build around. Keeping him still seems like the least risk to me unless you are blown away by over market value. I think teams see what you see and will try to steal him. If Krivsky obliges we have our answer as to how successful he'll be IMO.

  15. #14
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Winton Place
    Posts
    11,160

    Re: Adam Dunn

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Good post RMR and you are correct in your analysis. I disagree in one area though. As a Dunn backer I don't necessarily value him as high on the market as some of the suggestions would have you believe. Its just if you take his production out you have to get way over market value in return to keep the organization from going back to square one. Maybe square one would mean a championship caliber team in 5 years. Maybe not. I'd rather try to have some hope now so I keep him and build around him unless the deal gives me immediate hope. Trading him for unprovens doesn't make sense to me because they are not likely to ever be as good as the current version of Adam Dunn. I don't really believe any team will give that much, so you have to keep him. That is the situation that the Reds are in.

    And I am not a believer in the assumption that we can take his money and go buy a replacement. Those guys don't sign in places like Cincinnati. The savings from trading Adam Dunn will be pissed away on the mediocre IMO much like the savings from trading Casey last year was. Mediocre players are the only ones who'll take the Reds money (that will be especially true if Dunn or a high profile replacement isn't here). You'll get 2 or 3 guys like Jamey Wright, Matt Stairs and with some luck Pedro Feliz. Then the $13 Million will be gone and the team will be dominated by consolation prizes.

    Even the current flawed version of Dunn is a premium player and even though RMR is right on in his assessment, the Reds have to get a premium player back. Trade him for a bag of mediocre and use the money to buy more mediocre? No I'd just keep him if I couldn't get my unrealistic demands.

    Oh, and he'd be awful at 1B IMO and would make Phillips, EE and whoever plays SS awful as well. He does less damage in LF.
    This is as cogent an analysis as I've seen of Adam Dunn and the Reds. He's not the perfect player and just who he is seems to elicit derision from the fandom. Perhaps it's illogical on my part (although MTH123 makes a strong argument that it isn't), but I think the Reds will be a worse team without him, at least for the immediate future. If we can't get enough for him (and that too is a possiblity, again as outlined above), then we're better keeping him.

    And finally, I think you're absolutely right regarding his defensive position on the team.

  16. #15
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Winton Place
    Posts
    11,160

    Re: Adam Dunn

    RMR wrote: This is a bit of a conundrum that was pretty well stated in another thread. If you keep Dunn, and he performs around his current .900 OPS level, you aren't getting enough production to get what you need from him. (there is most definitely an argument to be had regarding his actual dollar value) If you're WK, and you just made a deal where you get less than your perceived dollars worth, you probably don't have the political capital to do it again - so you better find somebody will to give you his perceived value. So basically, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. See, the problem is in wishcasting his actual current value, not how to make the best of it.
    But I think you build a team around the guy and that heals a lot of wounds. Adam wasn't the only player who tanked late in the season and that brought the team down in the end. Only one or two players produced over the last month.

    Wheelhouse wrote: You obviously have ignored the final and most important statistic: team wins. Dunn folded like a tent when it counted, as did, granted, other players.

    The truth is the whole season counts. As I said above, virtually the whole team collapsed late in the season when it was absolutely necessary to produce. But those wins early in the season counted just as much as September and racking up the wins then helped in the end. It wasn't enough, and you correctly note that the collapse wasn't solely Adam's doing. But every player and every team goes through some slump in the long, arduous season. And, yes, the championship caliber teams minimize that reality, but I'd like to see the Reds, as a team, accomplish that with Adam Dunn.

    We'll see.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25