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Thread: buy now or wait until mid season?

  1. #1
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    buy now or wait until mid season?

    the free agent season has begun and already we are seeing contracts bigger than i expected.

    the quality of free agents this season is poor.

    lots of teams have money and will spend it chasing decent but not great players.

    My question is this: if the Reds can make some minor moves this winter ( say signing a 2B and a right handed platoon partner at 1B ) can they stay close to the Cards up to July?

    I suspect some teams will be looking to dump salaries mid season once they fall out of the race. A lot of teams that spend money this winter won't have an money to spend mid season. Will the Reds be better off spending money now or by waiting?

    Thoughts?

    - Will

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  3. #2
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: buy now or wait until mid season?

    Pitching

  4. #3
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: buy now or wait until mid season?

    I for one am a firm believer that this is the avenue that we need to pursue. I know it aint flashy, but they are all solid cheaper deals. So here goes:

    We need SP, Closer, RF, 2b/SS, Bench in that order.

    So here are my offseason targets.

    SP-Tony Armas- he helps shore up the back end of the rotation, and is capable of winning 10-14 games with an era @4.5

    Closer-Scott Williamson-he has closed before and likes Cincy, so he makes sense and allows Bray to be the set-up guy.

    RF-Craig Wilson-he can platoon with Griffey and Hatteberg and upgrades the bench at the same time by playing 1b/rf.

    SS-Alex Gonzalez-is still young has played in the NL and has decent range for the SS position and allows BP to play 2b.

    So the roster is:
    OF-Dunn,Denorfia,Griffey,Crosby
    INF-EE,Gonzalez,BP,Hatteberg
    C-Larue,Valentin
    Bench-Freel,Wilson,Castro

    Starting Pitchers-Harang, Arroyo, Armas, Milton, Lohse

    Bullpen-Williamson, Bray, Cormier, Coffey, Majewski, Claussen, Elizardo

    I think Ross/Belisle will be packaged for some prospects at the winter meetings.

    Like I said nothing fancy, but it allows us to go after the big guys at the July deadline or in 07 FA.

  5. #4
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: buy now or wait until mid season?

    Three basic thoughts:
    1.) The FA pool is definitely weak
    2.) The Reds need to add talent if they want to make the playoffs
    3.) The new market is here to stay, not a just an abberation

    Pay now or pay later. But you're going to pay.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #5
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: buy now or wait until mid season?

    Trade idea with Washington...Again.

    Reds trade-Adam Dunn, Scott Hatteberg, and Matt Belisle

    Nationals trade-Nick Johnson, Jon Rauch, and Ryan Church

    Bowden loves Dunn and would jump at the chance to have him replace Soriano in Lf and it reunites him with Kearns. Belisle then becomes their long reliever in the pen and Hatteberg can play 1st or they can pursue a cheaper FA alternative.

    The Reds get some much needed pop at a corner infield position and can bring up Votto more slowly to be his eventual replacement. rauch becomes the closer or set-up man depending on what transpires in FA. Church can then compete for the Cf job with Freel/Denorfia either way it strengthens the OF depth and minimizes the need for Bubba. We can then look at acquiring a true corner OF, someone like Delucci, Preston Wilson, Craig Wilson etc.

  7. #6
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: buy now or wait until mid season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    the free agent season has begun and already we are seeing contracts bigger than i expected.

    the quality of free agents this season is poor.

    lots of teams have money and will spend it chasing decent but not great players.

    My question is this: if the Reds can make some minor moves this winter ( say signing a 2B and a right handed platoon partner at 1B ) can they stay close to the Cards up to July?

    I suspect some teams will be looking to dump salaries mid season once they fall out of the race. A lot of teams that spend money this winter won't have an money to spend mid season. Will the Reds be better off spending money now or by waiting?

    Thoughts?

    - Will
    He has a pattern of conservatism so far. With his mind set and belief system he has made what appear to be what he feels are low risk moves, and so far Krivsky has received what he paid for.
    I don’t look for him to make any bold expensive moves. I believe that he will wait on spending money and we will have to wait and see if he was right.

  8. #7
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: buy now or wait until mid season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    My question is this: if the Reds can make some minor moves this winter ( say signing a 2B and a right handed platoon partner at 1B ) can they stay close to the Cards up to July?
    Interesting question. Conceptually, it seems like most offseasons and trade deadlines someone is saying "we should wait till the market gets better". With the way contracts have gone and are going, will it ever really be "better"?

    After the trade one of the knocks was that Kriv should have waited till this offseason because he could have gotten more. But now we're at the offseason and the prices (in trade and money) is looking to be astronomical.

    I'm not suggesting that Kriv go wild (unless a big move comes along that makes sense) but I don't care for the mindset of making minor moves until the stars are in line for the "perfect" move.

    That said, if Kriv can repeat the success of BA, BP and DR, all of which were relativley small moves, then perhaps minor moves are the way to go.

    Also, minor moves often works out to be dumpster diving. While that was ok durring last season when everything was being done on the fly, it's not really a way to build a team in the long run.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  9. #8
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: buy now or wait until mid season?

    Talent is a lot harder to replace than cash. Right now, Castellini has given the Reds an influx of cash, but Krivsky has strip-mined much of the talent. Therefore, if the Reds plan to compete in 2007 and 2008 as Castelini said they would, I'd say it's better to take a risk on some impact free agent signings than to go the trade route.

    In terms of worst-case scenarios, I think another Kearns/FeLo disaster would do infinitely more damage to the team than, say, another Eric Milton signing.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  10. #9
    hollywood mid westerner
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    Re: buy now or wait until mid season?

    buy now cuz you will have teams with the likes of Billy Beane, Omar Minaya, and Bowden holding players for hostage asking ridiculous trades in return.

    we;re better off doing it in the winter if we're gonna pursue than wait.


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