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Thread: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

  1. #61
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    As I mentioned on the other thread, a week or so ago, I heard someone involved with defensive metrics on XM say that Alex was the best shortstop in the A.L. (I can't remember who it was or where they were from). A couple of other people have posted that not all metrics agree that he's that good. Does anyone have access to any measurements? What's the deal?
    Last edited by tixe; 11-18-2006 at 12:34 AM.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds View Post
    I'd rather do nothing than spend $15M on Alex Gonzalez. I'd rather play Freel at 2B and Phillips at SS.

    I don't mind Alex Gonzalez. But at something closer to 2 yrs, $6M.

    $5 million a year for a starting player is just not a big deal in today's baseball. The Reds would be fortunate to get him for 3 years $15 million. Nor does his age bother me. He is still in his prime and will be for a couple of years.

    Folks -- including ownership -- had better adjust to today's prices or they will be in the (bargain) basement for a long time.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-17-2006 at 11:43 AM.

  4. #63
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    It seems pretty clear that the Reds are balking at drinking their own swill in regards to Castro. Understanding the difference between the reality of good defense (Gonzalez) and an empty reputation (Castro) is a step in the right direction. No way the Reds are pursuing Gonzalez if they think Castro is all that and a bag of chips in the field.

    Like WOY, I don't have a problem with putting an elite glove at SS, I'd just like to see the team limit its liability while doing so. A two-year deal on Gonzalez would work for me. Maybe you offer him two with a team option for the third. Gonzalez has been playing for his next contract the past two seasons and hasn't set the world on fire, so I wouldn't want to make him too comfortable.
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  5. #64
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    Here's a question: Let's assume that a given SS is a "perfect" fielder -- he never makes an error and gets to every ball hit in his zone. Exactly how much does that add in terms of offense?

    That is, overall, which player contributes more: a "perfect" fielding SS who OPSes .675 or a decent fielding SS who OPSes .775? Where's the balance point? I know there are many ways to look at it with some saber stats -- I just don't have the time at the moment.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #65
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It seems pretty clear that the Reds are balking at drinking their own swill in regards to Castro. Understanding the difference between the reality of good defense (Gonzalez) and an empty reputation (Castro) is a step in the right direction. No way the Reds are pursuing Gonzalez if they think Castro is all that and a bag of chips in the field.

    Like WOY, I don't have a problem with putting an elite glove at SS, I'd just like to see the team limit its liability while doing so. A two-year deal on Gonzalez would work for me. Maybe you offer him two with a team option for the third. Gonzalez has been playing for his next contract the past two seasons and hasn't set the world on fire, so I wouldn't want to make him too comfortable.
    I think Castro is there more to back up EE than anyone else. The Reds just don't have confidence yet that EE will make the routine play in the late innings. Castro can play also play some shortstop with sure hands, but clearly doesn't cover ground like a Gonzalez can.

    I would be very happy if the Reds got AG. I think we would see a remarkable difference in the field with AG/BP at short and second. Defensively, the Reds would then need to focus on centerfield.

    I'm afraid that offense is taking a back seat. After all these years, I'm willing to give it a try. Less offense but better defense and pitching.

  7. #66
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    Why don't the Reds move Felipe to 2b and Phillips to SS? Better defensive positions for both of them. Then, they can deal Kearns in an effort to address their starting pitching needs.

    Oh, wait.

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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Why don't the Reds move Felipe to 2b and Phillips to SS? Better defensive positions for both of them. Then, they can deal Kearns in an effort to address their starting pitching needs.

    Oh, wait.
    You cannot compare Lopez and Gonzalez as defensive players, regardless of position. Give Krivsky some credit. He wants a first class defensive team. Lopez could be part of a first class offensive team, but that's not Krivsky's emphasis.

  9. #68
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    No, but Lopez may have been solid at 2b, more so than SS, and was actually, ya know, dangerous with the stick.

    I don't know why you can't have both offense AND defense. It seems a lot of people are buying into some sort of Kriv cult that defense defense defense is where its at. I agree, need some of that, but not at the entire expense of offense...

  10. #69
    15 game winner Danny Serafini's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    Juan Castro really has nothing to do with signing Alex Gonzalez. Castro's here as a backup, period. Having a good fielding starting SS doesn't mean you don't need your backup to be able to field. One move has no effect on the other.

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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    Quote Originally Posted by tixe View Post
    As I mentioned on the other thread, a week or so ago, I heard someone involved with defensive metrics on XM say that Alex S. was the best shortstop in the A.L. (I can't remember who it was or where they were from). A couple of other people have posted that not all metrics agree that he's that good. Does anyone have access to any measurements? What's the deal?
    I posted before:

    His D is not Ozzie Smith or Honus Wagner like. His range factor was IDENTICAL to Royce Clayton's this year via the Bill James Handbook. He was the 15th ranked SS in the majors.
    I'd rather have a minor leaguer that can field well and not hit, pay him 375,000 for the year, than pay a ML'er $5 mil to field well and not hit.

  12. #71
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    No, but Lopez may have been solid at 2b, more so than SS, and was actually, ya know, dangerous with the stick.

    I don't know why you can't have both offense AND defense. It seems a lot of people are buying into some sort of Kriv cult that defense defense defense is where its at. I agree, need some of that, but not at the entire expense of offense...

    Top fielding shortstops who can hit are extremely rare and extremely expensive. If you want Miguel Tejada, start with an offer of Adam Dunn and probably add to it.

    Also folks have to keep in mind that shortstop is such a key position that many GMs don't want to "move" guys there; they want "pure" shortstops.

    Gonzalez doesn't seem like a terrible hitter, just a terrible OBP guy. He will get some extra base hits, but won't take walks. Not a top of the order hitter. I think the Reds can live with this if Phillips hits at second base. If Phillips doesn't hit, and both positions are strictly defensive, then it becomes a concern.

  13. #72
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It seems pretty clear that the Reds are balking at drinking their own swill in regards to Castro. Understanding the difference between the reality of good defense (Gonzalez) and an empty reputation (Castro) is a step in the right direction. No way the Reds are pursuing Gonzalez if they think Castro is all that and a bag of chips in the field.

    Like WOY, I don't have a problem with putting an elite glove at SS, I'd just like to see the team limit its liability while doing so. A two-year deal on Gonzalez would work for me. Maybe you offer him two with a team option for the third. Gonzalez has been playing for his next contract the past two seasons and hasn't set the world on fire, so I wouldn't want to make him too comfortable.
    A big part of the problem is that the team isn't a "judy hitter here; a judy hitter there," the team is slowly becoming overrun with weak sticks. They need some serious thunder in the lineup. It now becomes incumbent to really track down a first baseman who thumps or a right fielder who mashes if they sign Gonzalez. Putting Jr. in right or Hatteberg at first with guys like Phillips and Deno and Gonzalez in the lineup, and all of the sudden you're scoring 600 runs next year, also known as the Pittsburgh Redux.

  14. #73
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    They need some serious thunder in the lineup.
    Alex has pop, he's topped 50 EBH in a season. It's the getting on base part of the game that eludes him.

  15. #74
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    I posted this yesterday on the "Live" board before this thread was started. I haven't seen this posted over here, but I haven't read every page, yet.

    This interview appeared last winter after the Red Sox signed Gonzalez, and I thought it was very interesting. This was not a manager pulling a Sparky Anderson-type gushfest over one of his present players, but a manager reflecting on past players.


    Gonzalez is McKeon's Pick
    By Gordon Edes | February 5, 2006

    Boston.com
    Jack McKeon has had Ozzie Smith early in his career, Garry Templeton, Barry Larkin, and Pokey Reese, among others, play shortstop for him.

    ''Alex González is the best I've ever had," said McKeon, insisting he's not just blowing a cloud of cigar smoke about the free agent the Red Sox just signed last week. ''Definitely the best I've ever had, defensively.

    ''He's the whole package, man. He and [second baseman] Luis Castillo were together for over four years, and he was the greatest guy I've ever seen on the pivot, just spectacular.

    ''People say, 'Oh, this guy can't replace [Edgar] Renteria. For my money, he can. Yeah, Edgar might hit 20 points higher, but he ain't going to field with this guy. This guy is special.
    http://www.boston.com/sports/basebal..._mckeons_pick/
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  16. #75
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny Serafini View Post
    Juan Castro really has nothing to do with signing Alex Gonzalez. Castro's here as a backup, period. Having a good fielding starting SS doesn't mean you don't need your backup to be able to field. One move has no effect on the other.
    I'd suggest he's a backup because the Reds don't really think he's all that good with the glove when push comes to shove. I think Kc's right that Castro's probably seen more as a 3B defensive replacement than a SS by the organization.

    Because if the Reds really thought he was a quality defensive SS then Gonzalez would be redundant. In other words, Castro's deficits have plenty of effect on why the team would pursue a guy like Gonzalez. He'd be brought in to do what Castro can't, give the team some top tier defense at SS.

    RMR, I assume the balance point is where the positive of your fielding runs above average exceeds the negative of your runs created below position. From what I can tell, Gonzalez's glove has done more good than his bat has harm in recent years, making him a net positive. Though I think the Reds might also be well-served to look at a move like this from a holistic team standpoint. The club has played particularly poor defense in recent years and getting a high quality SS and CF are the two quickest ways to address that condition.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


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