Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 10 prospects

[reds44]

I will continue to be disappointed with the conversion of Medlock to reliever last season. I firmly believe you give guys that have performed, as he has, every chance as a starter. The caveat to that would be bringing them to the majors as relievers as a transition easer. Getting overly concerned about stature and build would have left P. Martinez and Oswalt as relievers in this system too I suppose? Is this the year that Cueto gets converted to a reliever as well?

Oh God I hope not. That would beyond stupid. Imagine Harang, Bailey, and Cueto in a few years.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Just checking....what would qualify as 'in-game' power?

There's a lot of those 5 o'clock hitters, around.

[Aronchis]

I will continue to be disappointed with the conversion of Medlock to reliever last season. I firmly believe you give guys that have performed, as he has, every chance as a starter. The caveat to that would be bringing them to the majors as relievers as a transition easer. Getting overly concerned about stature and build would have left P. Martinez and Oswalt as relievers in this system too I suppose? Is this the year that Cueto gets converted to a reliever as well?

I am not. Medlock gets that extra "bounce" in the bullpen while he throws 89-92 while starting with NO changeup. Hopefully the doubters will understand the differences between Medlock and Roy Oswalt. Cueto has a better chance of starting because he has developing changeup and better arm.

I am simply amazed some of you can't get it yet lol.........

[Z-Fly]

As much as everyone disliked DanO, you can't argue with his drafts.

[jmcclain19]

As much as everyone disliked DanO, you can't argue with his drafts.

Sure you can. One Homer Bailey coverd up the dozens of awful pics that follwed.

Outside of Bailey (and perhaps Milton Loo, who was signed two years later) I doubt any one else from that draft becomes more than a bit AAAA type player.

I'm glad Bailey panned out, but that's more dumb luck than anything else.

[dougdirt]

Sure you can. One Homer Bailey coverd up the dozens of awful pics that follwed.

Outside of Bailey (and perhaps Milton Loo, who was signed two years later) I doubt any one else from that draft becomes more than a bit AAAA type player.

I'm glad Bailey panned out, but that's more dumb luck than anything else.

To play Davils Advocate here, taking the 2004 High School Player of the Year and the kid turns out to be good is probably more than dumb luck. After Bailey, the 2004 draft seems pretty bad across the board, but there are still a few guys from that draft I like.
Paul Janish is finally starting to show the promise he showed in college with his bat. Cody Strait has a very intriuging combo of spped and power....if he can bring his contact level up just a bit, he could be very interesting.

But that is probably about it

[RedLegSuperStar]

how many of those guys were obtain through trades?

[dougdirt]

how many of those guys were obtain through trades?

Not a single one.
1. Homer Bailey - Drafted 2004
2. Jay Bruce - drafed 2005
3. Joey Votto - drafted 2002
4. Drew Stubbs - drafted 2006
5. Johnny Cueto - signed as a free agent in 2004
6. Travis Wood - drafted 2005
7. Sean Watson - drafted 2006
8. Milton Loo -drafted in 04 and 05, signed May of 06.
9. Chris Valaika - drafted 2006
10. Paul Janish - drafted 2004

[Cooper]

One thing i am concerned about, but i may not have the correct info.

Re: Joey Votto. His BABIP average was .371. Now if IIRC the league average is .300. This may mean that Votto was extremely hit lucky. I read on one of the sabr sites that minor league stars tend to have higher BABIP, but i doubt they average this high (.371). If i'm correct, it my mean that he's not near as ready as the club may think. He needs a year in AAA to conolidate gains made this year and to even out the luck factor so we can see what we really got.

[Superdude]

Joey Votto. His BABIP average was .371.

Where'd you find that? .371 is pretty darn high.

[Cooper]

Superdude id post the link but i'm terrible with the internet thing --found it on a site called minorleaguesplits.com.

[dougdirt]

BABIP is usually .280-.310. In the minor leagues, it tends to be a little higher for certain guys, becuase well, they are just better hitters. You hit more line drives facing lesser competition, more line drives usually means more hits.

If you want to break down Votto a little further lets take a peak.

He had 398 batted balls on the season.
160 went for hits, while 238 were not hits.
of his 159 ground balls, just 30 went for hits. That is just 19%.
He had 71 line drives, 55 of which went for hits. That is 77%.
He also had 156 fly balls, 66 of which went for hits. That is 42%.

His line drives and fly balls went for hits a lot of the time. I think its more of a he hit the ball real hard, an awful lot than he was real lucky. He had 70 extra base hits on the season....

[IslandRed]

Factoring in BABIP for hitters doesn't work quite the same way as it does for pitchers anyway. Pitchers are so tightly clustered in terms of their ability to control BABIP that for most practical purposes the variations are just random luck and defense. Hitters *do* control BABIP. They're still subject to fluctuations around their "natural" BABIP level due to luck, but it's not accurate to start with the assumption that all hitters start with the same general BABIP rate.